mimillman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 So what do we think for LOT...HWO or SWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 DTX calling for little in the way of snowfall if any south of I-69. LOL FAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 So what do we think for LOT...HWO or SWS? DAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Having some fun... Overlayed the precip map from above on GE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm gonna continue to ride my 1.2" call for here and MLI into the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sticking with the call I made yesterday for ORD...0.3" But Milwaukee I'm gonna go a bit more bullish and say 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 For the Toronto folks and members nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 For the Toronto folks and members nearby. ` Swing and a miss. Whatever falls will melt by Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 For the Toronto folks and members nearby. Cool. Thanks for this. Lots of detail. You can clearly see the moist SE-ly upsloping against the Oak Ridges north of Lk Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 1:2 ratios expected here. 1 kernel salt per 2 flakes snow !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 1:2 ratios expected here. 1 kernel salt per 2 flakes snow !! Geos...I love your alter ego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 1:2 ratios expected here. 1 kernel salt per 2 flakes snow !! Geos...I love your alter ego. Lol. Good one Daff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 What ratios you using there ThunderSnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 What ratios you using there ThunderSnow? 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm wishing the last time I mowed I had lowered the blade deck down to fairway grass level, that way these 1" snowfalls look more impressive lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 15:1 gotcha....thanks .... seems like a safe ratio to go with for a good chunk of the QPF at your local there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 23Z HRRR also throwing GEOS in on the game early....FWIW along with a quite a few members from the U of I WRF....(from the 12Z run) here's a few.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Gilbert - you have the link for those maps? Guess I'll have to get up early to see that LES band form. Liking this map just put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 here ya go brother.... http://rt.atmos.uiuc.edu/ Gilbert - you have the link for those maps? Guess I'll have to get up early to see that LES band form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 What's worth noting I think is anyone who sees a lake effect band tomorrow morning along the IL/WI shoreline will likely saturate first when the main band pushes in (perhaps almost immediately when the lowest radar returns arrive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 here ya go brother.... http://rt.atmos.uiuc.edu/ Thanks. 0z 4km NAM showing secondary hot spot here with 0.25"+. More moisture towards Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Looks like a land breeze starting to developing with most locations around the southern end of the lake reporting off shore winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Thanks. 0z 4km NAM showing secondary hot spot here with 0.25"+. More moisture towards Chicago. Tropical must be loving this winter so far, and he'll love it even more if this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 What's worth noting I think is anyone who sees a lake effect band tomorrow morning along the IL/WI shoreline will likely saturate first when the main band pushes in (perhaps almost immediately when the lowest radar returns arrive). Good point. I've seen that happen before here and nearby. Ramsey is going with 2-3" roughly north of I-88 is seems and 3"+ in Wisconsin. SE MI wetter on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Geos...you don't really give Ramsey any cred...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Geos...you don't really give Ramsey any cred...right? Well at times last winter he seemed to not low ball as much. Since this winter is just getting started, I'm not sure which way he'll lean yet. Actually he's not low balling this area too much 2-3". I do however prefer Skilling and Caplan for short term forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 322 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013 MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF ONSET OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LOWS AS CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS...BUT GENERALLY ARE ON BOARD WITH SNOW BEGINNING OVER WESTERN HALF OF IOWA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TODAY WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER SW IOWA AT 15Z NOW. MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY THIS MORNING REGARDING CENTER OF HIGH WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE HIGH OVER MN BY 18Z AND FARTHER NORTH AT 12Z THAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL INITS ON THE RIDGE AXIS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE QPF PRODUCED BY THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT ACROSS THE REGION. GFS ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SATURATION ALOFT WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 06-09Z WITH SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VIRGA AS THE COLUMN SATURATES THEN QUICKLY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND VSBY DROP ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS TO REACH THE SFC FROM 09-12Z WEST AND 12- 15Z EAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 RGEM showing a slight shift south. Alek's DAB call looks to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm wishing the last time I mowed I had lowered the blade deck down to fairway grass level, that way these 1" snowfalls look more impressive lol. I thought I was the only one who thought this.... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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