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December 8-9th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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What's worth noting I think is anyone who sees a lake effect band tomorrow morning along the IL/WI shoreline will likely saturate first when the main band pushes in (perhaps almost immediately when the lowest radar returns arrive).

 

Good point. I've seen that happen before here and nearby.

 

Ramsey is going with 2-3" roughly north of I-88 is seems and 3"+ in Wisconsin.

 

SE MI wetter on this run.

 

hires_t_precip_michigan_16.png

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Geos...you don't really give Ramsey any cred...right?

 

Well at times last winter he seemed to not low ball as much. Since this winter is just getting started, I'm not sure which way he'll lean yet.

Actually he's not low balling this area too much 2-3". I do however prefer Skilling and Caplan for short term forecasts.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

322 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF ONSET OF

SNOW OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LOWS AS CLOUDS MOVE

ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING BY ABOUT 3 TO 4

HOURS...BUT GENERALLY ARE ON BOARD WITH SNOW BEGINNING OVER WESTERN

HALF OF IOWA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. HIGH

PRESSURE EXITING TODAY WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER SW IOWA AT 15Z NOW.

MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY THIS MORNING REGARDING CENTER OF HIGH

WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE HIGH OVER MN BY 18Z AND FARTHER NORTH AT

12Z THAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL INITS ON THE

RIDGE AXIS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE QPF PRODUCED BY THE SYSTEM

CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT ACROSS THE REGION. GFS ISENTROPIC

ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SATURATION ALOFT WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 06-09Z

WITH SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME

VIRGA AS THE COLUMN SATURATES THEN QUICKLY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND VSBY

DROP ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS TO REACH THE SFC FROM 09-12Z WEST AND 12-

15Z EAST

 

post-5865-0-27462500-1386475852_thumb.gi

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