wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sticking with my 3 to 5 .... although.....trends have been to moisten things up more and more in central IL into Northern IN .... whether this minor increase in QPF is snow or frozen drizzle/snizzle may give me a shot IMO.... The problem in the Chicago area (and Milwaukee near the lake) might be ratios. Expect more of a 15:1 ratio, in which case 0.1-0.15"QPF (which seems to be the consensus) is around 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Going with 2.4" here in RAC and 2.5" for MKE, using 13:1 ratios and around .2" of qpf. The lake effect is still a bit of a wild card though... High res models have consistently put SBM in a qpf bulls eye so I'll go with 3.9" up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Going with 2.4" here in RAC and 2.5" for MKE, using 13:1 ratios and around .2" of qpf. The lake effect is still a bit of a wild card though... High res models have consistently put SBM in a qpf bulls eye so I'll go with 3.9" up there. I still think the ratios will be a bit better, unless you're within 5 miles or so of the lake. 15:1 sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sticking with my 3 to 5 .... although.....trends have been to moisten things up more and more in central IL into Northern IN .... whether this minor increase in QPF is snow or frozen drizzle/snizzle may give me a shot IMO.... If we end up with 3 to 5 you win this winter's first 'nice call' award. There's no way we're getting more than 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm going with 2.5" for final call here. Ratios should be good. 15:1 ratios most likely, but agree with the 2.5" prediction, might be on the high side of things though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Seems like this model is a bit slower, but the sim. radar looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Seems like this model is a bit slower, but the sim. radar looks great. Looks like some enhancement for sure. We shall see how this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The problem in the Chicago area (and Milwaukee near the lake) might be ratios. Expect more of a 15:1 ratio, in which case 0.1-0.15"QPF (which seems to be the consensus) is around 2". yeah...i'm banking on a little more QPF than what has been shown the last 48 hours....and with a small nod to a little better ratios for portions of LOT...from my earlier post....I still think a spread of 17:1 to 13:1 across LOT is possible NW to SE If we end up with 3 to 5 you win this winter's first 'nice call' award. There's no way we're getting more than 1.5". lol....I could care less about the nice call....I just enjoy the mid range forecasting despite how pointless and frustrating it can be at times....FWIW, regarding my numbers....I fell the more common number will be in the 3 inch range....with a few lollipops up to 5"... So, I suppose it is more weighted to the 3 inch range... And believe me...when there is a legit shot at a bigger storm, you will probably find me posting less and sitting back and listening to the pros more....so I guess that's yet another reason for ya'll to hope for a biggie... lol cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 In addition to the saturation issues, the NAM now brings a small warm layer >0C in here for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'll go with 1" for Toronto. Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Now looking at the total water to fall, it shows a more clearer picture. Add whatever ratio you want. Milwaukee metro looks prime on this side of the lake. Bo will probably end up getting another 8" or so, ha! On a side note, it looks like Copper Harbor and Hancock, MI get slammed with LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro with 1-2, GFS with 1-2, NAM with 2-3 across Northern Illinois... Since I missed the first "big" snow event in November when I was in Florida, I'll be glad to see 1-2, and I'll put my Elgin call in the middle at 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro with 1-2, GFS with 1-2, NAM with 2-3 across Northern Illinois... Since I missed the first "big" snow event in November when I was in Florida, I'll be glad to see 1-2, and I'll put my Elgin call in the middle at 1.5". The EURO isn't great at picking up on small scale features is it? e.g. LES. EURO maps I'm looking at are 10:1. 1.7" here, 1.3" ORD, 2.0" MKE, 1.6" MSN, 2.2" LSE, 1.8" MKG, 1.9" GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 yeah...i'm banking on a little more QPF than what has been shown the last 48 hours....and with a small nod to a little better ratios for portions of LOT...from my earlier post....I still think a spread of 17:1 to 13:1 across LOT is possible NW to SE lol....I could care less about the nice call....I just enjoy the mid range forecasting despite how pointless and frustrating it can be at times....FWIW, regarding my numbers....I fell the more common number will be in the 3 inch range....with a few lollipops up to 5"... So, I suppose it is more weighted to the 3 inch range... And believe me...when there is a legit shot at a bigger storm, you will probably find me posting less and sitting back and listening to the pros more....so I guess that's yet another reason for ya'll to hope for a biggie... lol cheers Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping for 3 to 5". If you end up being right, maybe you should post MORE, not less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro won't really pick up on LES and things like that too well. I was looking at the snowfall maps produced on Eurowx.com. Looking at NAM/4kmNAM and GFS forecast soundings, there is very limited moisture/time spent in the DGZ, and what is there doesn't have much vertical velocity. Not going to get substantial snow without those two things happening. Case in point: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I still think the ratios will be a bit better, unless you're within 5 miles or so of the lake. 15:1 sounds about right. The depth of the dgz and the vertical motion within it still looks pretty mediocre especially MKE and south plus a 15kt wind of the lake wont help. I can see < 15:1 south and > 15:1 north of the city but then again we're kind of nitpicking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The depth of the dgz and the vertical motion within it still looks pretty mediocre especially MKE and south plus a 15kt wind of the lake wont help. I can see < 15:1 south and > 15:1 north of the city but then again we're kind of nitpicking here. You would think with the cold air mass that we have that the mid level would lead to a deep DGZ. Bottom line, if you see good dendrites falling tomorrow morning to start, then the end result should be pretty good. There's been some surprises before, when I expected smaller flakes, but they over performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Check the skew-t I posted, much of the profile is warmer than the DGZ. Even moving to Kenosha, the profiles are like that. If the models are wrong and the environmental profile ends up colder and in the DGZ, we could have an overperformer, with about a 200mb thick DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 You would think with the cold air mass that we have that the mid level would lead to a deep DGZ. Bottom line, if you see good dendrites falling tomorrow morning to start, then the end result should be pretty good. There's been some surprises before, when I expected smaller flakes, but they over performed. We have a nearly 300mb dgz sunday morning but it shrinks considerably as the low/mid levels warm. If we see any lake effect during the day it should be pretty high ratio fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Check the skew-t I posted, much of the profile is warmer than the DGZ. Even moving to Kenosha, the profiles are like that. If the models are wrong and the environmental profile ends up colder and in the DGZ, we could have an overperformer, with about a 200mb thick DGZ. Yup, something I've been keeping an eye on. Much of the 700-900mb layer is only a degree or two above -12C Sunday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The best DGZ depth has been modeled to be roughly near a DSM-GRB line. It's still very good in a zone south/east of there but gradually becomes less favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Aaand it's advisory time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 ARX and MKX hoisted advisories. This is for the northern suburbs of Milwaukee and Sheboygan. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT....SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING OREARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OFLIGHT AND POWDERY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS INSHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. LOWPRESSURE AND RELATIVELY WARMER AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THEREGION WILL GENERATE THE LIGHT AND POWDERY SNOW. AFTER THE SNOWENDS ON MONDAY...BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW. THEREFORE SOME ROADS WILL REMAIN SNOW COVERED ANDSLIPPERY.WIZ052-060-080345-/O.NEW.KMKX.WW.Y.0016.131208T1800Z-131209T1200Z/SHEBOYGAN-OZAUKEE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEBOYGAN...PORT WASHINGTON144 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CSTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOONSUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SHEBOYGAN ANDOZAUKEE COUNTIES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE SNOW WILL THENOCCUR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TOHIGHER SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND TOTALS OVER SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEECOUNTIES.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF LIGHT AND POWDERY SNOW WITHTHE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER EASTERN SHEBOYGAN AND NORTHEAST OZAUKEECOUNTIES DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 HRRR showing the lake effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 HRRR showing the lake effect... Sweet! Wow, @ 3z! 12km NAM says this system is going a bit south wrt to the southern extent of the 0.10"> line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 DTX calling for little in the way of snowfall if any south of I-69. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM hi-res shows that LES band tomorrow morning with convergence along the IL shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM hi-res shows that LES band tomorrow morning with convergence along the IL shoreline. It continues to be very bullish with the lake effect(.4" qpf over MKE...) Winds stay around 110 degrees much of afternoon tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if the band is transitory or sits over someone a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It continues to be very bullish with the lake effect(.4" qpf over MKE...) Winds stay around 110 degrees much of afternoon tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if the band is transitory or sits over someone a couple hours. Is that the NAM hi-res your looking at? Almost looks more 100°, which can produce LEhS here too. Need to keep an eye on the HRRR. 18z run favoring Wauwatosa, West Allis, Brookfield, Waukesha now. EDIT: Looks like the HRRR took a dump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It continues to be very bullish with the lake effect(.4" qpf over MKE...) Winds stay around 110 degrees much of afternoon tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if the band is transitory or sits over someone a couple hours. Is that the NAM hi-res your looking at? Almost looks more 100°, which can produce LEhS here too. Need to keep an eye on the HRRR. 18z run favoring Wauwatosa, West Allis, Brookfield, Waukesha now. Yeah. The 4km nam actually does keep the wind more easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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