Brewers Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm starting to like the lake effect chances Sunday. Lake induced EL's aren't that high but the dgz is just 1km above the sfc and models are showing a more ESE component of the wind during the day, the entire SE WI lakeshore might see some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 1.2" for here and MLI, final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 6:16 AM, Brewers said: I'm starting to like the lake effect chances Sunday. Lake induced EL's aren't that high but the dgz is just 1km above the sfc and models are showing a more ESE component of the wind during the day, the entire SE WI lakeshore might see some action. Most of the models, including the hi-res ones that are coming into view, are showing the potential for a rogue lake effect band, even for Lake County in N Illinois. This would be Sunday morning out ahead of the main band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 What the RGEM shows so far. 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 6:23 AM, Geos said: What the RGEM shows so far. Congrats northwest 2/3 of Iowa, as usual lol. Dubuque is shown on the southeast edge of the heavier band, but there will likely be a little bonus lolli showing up there in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 6:21 AM, wisconsinwx said: Most of the models, including the hi-res ones that are coming into view, are showing the potential for a rogue lake effect band, even for Lake County in N Illinois. This would be Sunday morning out ahead of the main band. Winds should be light if not calm Sunday morning so there could be some land breeze influence. I wouldn't rule out a mesolow forming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 6:29 AM, Brewers said: Winds should be light if not calm Sunday morning so there could be some land breeze influence. I wouldn't rule out a mesolow forming... I saw something like that on the simulated 4km NAM tonight. Winds are NE for awhile here early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 ZL for Northern IN. yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I like the trends for about 1" for me. We will see how far South the Vort max ejects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/4/2013 at 2:55 PM, A-L-E-K said: .7 final call Quote New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. make great calls 4 days out every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 2:30 PM, A-L-E-K said: make great calls 4 days out every day Conservatism usually wins the day in meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 2:35 PM, IWXwx said: Conservatism usually wins the day in meteorology. stop giving away my secrets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 2:36 PM, A-L-E-K said: stop giving away my secrets You will be accused of mortgaging the property on Debby Downer Blvd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 12Z NAM hi res still pointing at some of that LES in far NE IL and SE Wisco Sunday morning .... Even shows a band that tries to develop over cook then work it's way on north as winds swing around the E/SE.... interesting none-the-less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 2:43 PM, Gilbertfly said: 12Z NAM hi res still pointing at some of that LES in far NE IL and SE Wisco Sunday morning .... Even shows a band that tries to develop over cook then work it's way on north as winds swing around the E/SE.... interesting none-the-less Mt. Geos FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 2:43 PM, IWXwx said: You will be accused of mortgaging the property on Debby Downer Blvd. Chicagowx already threw me out and changed the locks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 3:58 AM, Ajdos said: LOLLL, O yeah ......Could be another 2-4 type year lol, maybe 1-3 this year? If were lucky atp 1" to 2" sounds amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 2:35 PM, IWXwx said: Conservatism usually wins the day in meteorology. But when it doesn't you are left with trouble. If Alek was a met and downplayed every event, he would be Jerry Taft or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 3:18 PM, wisconsinwx said: But when it doesn't you are left with trouble. If Alek was a met and downplayed every event, he would be Jerry Taft or worse. Sadly, that method has been on a hot streak for 2+ years. Why change now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm not sure Alek is downplaying, he's just telling it like it is. How many recent winter events have actually panned out? Maybe it's just me, but it seems like the majority of events simply don't live up to the initial hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 4:12 PM, Chitown Storm said: I'm not sure Alek is downplaying, he's just telling it like it is. How many recent winter events have actually panned out? Maybe it's just me, but it seems like the majority of events simply don't live up to the initial hype. Initial hype, sure, but for the most part, his downplaying is way too consistent, and some of those events happen as they were projected and he ends up lowballing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 2:48 PM, IWXwx said: Mt. Geos FTW? I noticed that on the 0z run last night. Model does seem to pick up on the lake wx features better. 2-4" in my point. NAM control has a lollipop spot over Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Interesting lake effect going on around Southern Ontario this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 LOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM hi-res snowfall for the southern region of Lake MI. 10:1 equiv. only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Still going to sit on my 1.1" call for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm going with 2.5" for final call here. Ratios should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 5:55 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Still going to sit on my 1.1" call for here. That's probably a good call. 2-3" is possible in Lake County given potential lake effect/enhancement, and I'm sticking with 2-3" here but will acknowledge the potential for isolated higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 MKX still going with 3-6, highest near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sticking with my 3 to 5 .... although.....trends have been to moisten things up more and more in central IL into Northern IN .... whether this minor increase in QPF is snow or frozen drizzle/snizzle may give me a shot IMO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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