sauss06 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I agree...but I'm also having a hard time following because there are 2 separate threats that are being lumped together in essentially the same discussion. Those of us in the LSV (and those going to the Steelers game) are keying in on Sunday, while those north and west are focused on Friday night. Some great discussion and analysis...just hard to figure which event some are discussing. Yep, to me looks like we (LSV guys) will be rain Friday. And Sunday / Monday looks to start as Snow, a lil frzn then all rain. But what do i know. Zak told me on fb, he is thinking we get a couple inches, then .25-.50 ice?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Any predictions for icing in Millersville, PA? still tough to call right now... the icing threat is more of event 2 (Sunday/Monday) and event 1 (Friday/Saturday) results may determine how much of a threat there may be... I say there is a chance but right now a very small chance until things evolve a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 "The SREFS are just little baby NAMs that are born three hours after mommy NAM is released from the psych ward." Forever quoted yep, we should all quote that! could be the line of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 lets play find the front!! lol http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DEPHR/last.html http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DT24/t0.gif I do think sorta similar to last week that the areas that manage a changeover tomorrow night and keep this fresh snow on Saturday will see colder temperatures than the models are currently predicting and yes with a more established high lock in the colder air near the surface once again for Sunday/Monday unlike last week though... there will likely be a good bit of rain before a changeover instead of snow first then change over... will be interesting to see how easy the places that do changeover tomorrow accumulate As for warm sea surface temperatures... at the surface it impacts far eastern PA more than the Harrisburg region... I have seen in the past where a east/southeasterly wind pushes the cold air into the eastern side of the mountains and places like MDT wind up 5-10 degrees colder than Reading and east... aloft it certainly hurts any chance for snow and can warm 850mb level enough that if we see heavy periods of rain the warmer air can mix down to the surface a little... lighter rainfall and we could see temperatures close again for ice potential Once you're really into the ridges/valleys, the SE surface winds aren't a big factor. The cold air gets trapped pretty efficiently once you're into that terrain. I remember a couple of occasions when I lived out there when that was the case, yet temps stayed below freezing for hours and we had freezing rain/sleet. It's obviously a much bigger factor where I live now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yep, to me looks like we (LSV guys) will be rain Friday. And Sunday / Monday looks to start as Snow, a lil frzn then all rain. But what do i know. Zak told me on fb, he is thinking we get a couple inches, then .25-.50 ice?!?! If there is a changeover at the end to snow late Friday/Early Saturday for LSV area it will likely be a Trace to 1" at best... for Sunday/Monday .25-.5" ice may be a little extreme for our region... worst case scenario may be .1-.25"... the initial snow may be too light to reach the ground at first with the cold by dry airmass eating up some of the initial snow potential too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 FWIW, DTs first guess map has the LSV getting 2-4" and a significant ice storm on top of that I do agree with a lot of the posters in here in that it is tough going anywhere on this site and finding a forecast or model interpretation of the runs with a LSV focus. Even as the GFS just came out showing very cold surface temps and a big threat for ice I've not seen much commenting on it (this is for the Sunday storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Links for the LSV guys: Coolwx.com: Has NAM/GFS MOS for KRDG and KMDT, along with most other stations around the country. Use the links in the frame on the left to change sites/data. Link: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=PA&stn=KMDT&model=nam&time=current&field=prec SREF plume viewer: Has KLNS, KTHV, KHAR and many other sites nationwide. Link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Wunderground's wundermap has a few euro models available for free that cover the LSV. Link: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Eric Horst usually has excellent analysis prior to events in his special wx disco: http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Instantweathermaps.com has nationwide model maps. Link: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ CTP's discussion mentions the LSV when applicable: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off I'm sure there are more out there, but these are the places I usually turn to when something is inbound. There's enough data among all of those links that most novice level hobbyists should be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 FWIW, DTs first guess map has the LSV getting 2-4" and a significant ice storm on top of that I do agree with a lot of the posters in here in that it is tough going anywhere on this site and finding a forecast or model interpretation of the runs with a LSV focus. Even as the GFS just came out showing very cold surface temps and a big threat for ice I've not seen much commenting on it (this is for the Sunday storm) I usually refuse to buy into what DT says. So much is up in the air right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Not that it's worth anything, but the 12z NOGAPS came in colder for storm 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Not that it's worth anything, but the 12z NOGAPS came in colder for storm 1. 12z GFS has a decent changeover for State College region tomorrow night ... 0z/12z text output http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_KUNV.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sunday looks like a major ice storm for the LSV per the GGEM maps posted in the Mid Atlantic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z GFS has a decent changeover for State College region tomorrow night ... 0z/12z text output http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_KUNV.txt Problem will be between hr36-42. We've got that warm layer at 700-850 showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 My call for Friday for MDT: Rain, maybe a mix but it won't stick anywhere. Per models, LSV and N of DC/Baltimore is in for a significant, maybe catastrophic, ice storm Sunday into Monday. Please no. It gives Charlottesville nearly .9" zr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i just stumbled upon some notes of mine. December 15-16, 2007 we had freezing rain and lost power for over 7 hours. for whatever reason, i didn't document how much frzn we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I was using #icestorm2013 in social media posts last week for fun. I guess I may have to bring it back out if the models verify on this one. Although I do think some see more snow this time than what we did last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z GFS has a decent changeover for State College region tomorrow night ... 0z/12z text output http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_KUNV.txt That shows rain to sleet to maybe 1-2" snow at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 i just stumbled upon some notes of mine. December 15-16, 2007 we had freezing rain and lost power for over 7 hours. for whatever reason, i didn't document how much frzn we had. At my parents' in Lebanon County 1.1" of rain fell with temperatures between 26 and 30 with that storm. They were without power for quite awhile. A big ice storm is not something I care to deal with, but all indications are that someone is getting one. Up here, the strong high sometimes means we hang on to sleet longer than anticipated, cutting down on freezing rain amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 CTP issues Winter Weather Advisory valid at Dec 06, 1:00 PM EST for Cambria, Cameron, Clearfield, Elk, McKean, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Potter, Somerset, Sullivan, Tioga, Warren Counties valid untill Dec 07, 5:00 AM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 At my parents' in Lebanon County 1.1" of rain fell with temperatures between 26 and 30 with that storm. They were without power for quite awhile. A big ice storm is not something I care to deal with, but all indications are that someone is getting one. Up here, the strong high sometimes means we hang on to sleet longer than anticipated, cutting down on freezing rain amounts. They suck any time, but in the winter they really suck. Especially in an area where most services are overhead and a lot of trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro appears to hold serve with storm #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro appears to hold serve with storm #1. Was just looking at that via text data, pretty much about the same as last night. Thats a pretty sizeable snow event for AOO/UNV/IPT with MDT seeing a bit of snow at the tail end (about an inch). Guess will have to see if that ends up being the case or if the NAM and it's dysfunctional family pulls off the upset (That description of the SREFs was pretty much the best i've ever seen). GFS seemed like it was in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Some serious fog right now in hbg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i just stumbled upon some notes of mine. December 15-16, 2007 we had freezing rain and lost power for over 7 hours. for whatever reason, i didn't document how much frzn we had. I remember this storm. We were flying out of PHL Dec. 15 to Texas. There was no WWA or WSW or any real mention of zr. Woke up at 5 a.m. to take the trash around and then leave and I stepped out on the sidewalk and busted my tail. We got in the car and didn't go over 15 all the way to the Turnpike only to find it completely closed. We had to take 30 all the way to PHL and never went over 20 on that drive. It was terrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 concerned about Sunday, will be heading back home to Hershey from Belmar, NJ Sunday evening. I'm guessing this is the best thread on here to discuss what's going on in Dauphin/York/Lebanon/Lancaster Counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 concerned about Sunday, will be heading back home to Hershey from Belmar, NJ Sunday evening. I'm guessing this is the best thread on here to discuss what's going on in Dauphin/York/Lebanon/Lancaster Counties? yeah our experts will help ya out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 concerned about Sunday, will be heading back home to Hershey from Belmar, NJ Sunday evening. I'm guessing this is the best thread on here to discuss what's going on in Dauphin/York/Lebanon/Lancaster Counties? It is the best thread, indeed. As of now, models appear to show the more significant zr will be south of that route. I'm not a great source for reading models, but I think we get heavier rain up here which really helps decrease icing. As always, one of our awesome mets will be able to provide much more expertise. We are in NYC and driving home Sunday, we'll just leave earlier if we need to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 just had several rumbles of thunder here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Anyone remember what the precip type "ZLSG" means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Anyone remember what the precip type "ZLSG" means? Screen Shot 2013-12-05 at 2.17.47 PM.png Might be a typo, but probably snow grains and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Anyone remember what the precip type "ZLSG" means? Screen Shot 2013-12-05 at 2.17.47 PM.png Can't say I've seen that one before...I think ZL can be freezing drizzle? So freezing drizzle and snow grains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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