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Central PA - December 2013


PennMan

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Hmmm....guess I'll take it.

 

Tuesday: Snow, mainly before 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

One thing that could be a nice surprise is our location as the vort approaches and thermal profiles makes our area perfect for very high ratios if we can get into any kind of decent precip band.  .2 qpf could easily be 4" of snow. 

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Looks like maybe a half inch accumulation for State College and points northwest. The 00z NAM and the 01z HRRR seem to have a good idea of the current radar reflectivity distribution over the Tennessee Valley region. Both models keep State College mainly on the periphery of the heavier precipitation rates. Also, the 00z NAM is suggesting an area of 800-600 mb frontogenesis to the southeast which could place UNV in the sinking branch of the mesoscale circulation, reducing precipitation rates further.

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I disagree, I think we will get some 20-25 dbz for a couple of hours.

 

The danger I see is the AOO-UNV corridor being hung out to dry between the snow area in Indiana/Ohio and the area of heavier echoes to the southeast over KY and TN. It's something i've seen modeled pretty consistently since models other than the NAM/SREFs started picking up on this, and it has really been noticable on the SREF... where the precip area to the west dies off and yields to the more main area of precip that will be favoring places like the Sus valley before it ever reaches the central counties.

 

post-1507-0-34974500-1386658452_thumb.gi

 

Notice how UNV is in a bit of a hole. HRRR and RAP not too impressive looking for this area either. The advisory area for the Sus Valley does still look to be in good shape, but I'm not sure about the advisory counties near the I-99 corridor. CTP backed off on snow amounts on its new map and it would appear they could just about take Blair,Cambria, and Huntingdon out of the advisory as pretty big areas of each county are only in the 1-2 range. 

 

With all that said, I do think we should see at least a couple hours where we will have some decent snowfall, which should be good enough to manage an inch or two. The one thing we will have going for us is snow ratios which are supposed to be pretty high (on the order of 15:1 and potentially even up to 20:1) since the atmosphere aloft is now much colder and more conducive to good snow growth. So all that's really needed to manage up to a couple inches of fluffy snow is probably gonna be a bit over a tenth of liquid. 

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