jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Maybe something to keep in mind-the radar seems to be keeping the snow pretty far south over the Midwest. Indianapolis, for example, hasn't been in the snow shield yet and they were in a warning yesterday. If this continues, northern PA (northwest of the Coudersport/Clearfield line I mentioned earlier) may not see as much precip (therefore snow) as models have now, and the best action may be further south tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well things escalated quickly today, looks like scheduling to get the snow tires put on the Altima this afternoon might end up being a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The low pressure wave riding along the front will cause it to stall for a time, meaning the snow line won't race east anymore after a point. But the low is forcing lift which is generating the enhanced precip. Thanks JM and Djr. That makes sense and why LSV will be missing out on a couple of inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Maybe something to keep in mind-the radar seems to be keeping the snow pretty far south over the Midwest. Indianapolis, for example, hasn't been in the snow shield yet and they were in a warning yesterday. If this continues, northern PA (northwest of the Coudersport/Clearfield line I mentioned earlier) may not see as much precip (therefore snow) as models have now, and the best action may be further south tonight. My uncle that lives in Paducah, KY was facing mainly an ice storm yesterday with up to a half inch of ice or so of freezing rain and some sleet/snow accums at the tail end. Was mainly sleet overnight and already flipped over to snow and PAH bumped them up to 4-8 inches. So it seems like the cold air is winning the battle more than had been originally expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 My friend 10 miles NW of Pittsburgh is reporting snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 My friend 10 miles NW of Pittsburgh is reporting snow! You mean your new best friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 12z Hi-Res NAM is ... a weenie dream come true? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/comploop.html One thing is for certain, we will need those precipitation rates for a lot of people in Central PA and points south and east to get substantial accumulating snow. There is a warm nose initially (due to the shallow nature of the arctic air) but the endothermic cooling of melting snowflakes should help create an isothermal layer. The precipitation is probably all sleet/rain at 00z at State College but it switches over to snow between 00-01z when the heavier rates arrive (>= 0.1" liquid equivalent) There is definitely the potential for some more intense mesoscale banding with this system. The 12z GFS has decent mid-level frontogenesis over central PA at 00z tonight. There is also some areas of negative EPV collocated with high relative humidity which may support the presence of some CSI. Absolutely... additionally this is a favorable synoptic pattern (neutral temperature advection, jet forced ascent, frontogenesis) for a laterally quasi-stationary snowband that could train over the same region (along isentropes) over the next 6-12 hours. Thus, there will probably be a significant snowfall gradient between those who receive the highest amounts and those who don't receive much at all. Jaymes Kenyon has done some excellent work on this topic and this appears to be the ideal synoptic case for nearly stationary mesoscale snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 41 at UNV...bit higher than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Occasional sleet pellets with the rain just south of Bellefonte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 41 at UNV...bit higher than expected. Pretty much right where we were modeled to be by the NAM, right? And Walker Building is back down to 39F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Prediction: MDT gets some pity ice tonight but not much more, points east just get rain. RDG might get a pity pellet or two as well. South and east of the MDT/RDG line, it'll just be rain. Book it. Caveat: I have no formal met training. However, I correctly predicted the sex of my son 4 months before we knew, so I'm pretty good at predicting the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 We three should do some kind of map showing our locations, I think it's almost a perfect triangle. I have an idea...thread coming later this afternoon about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 There is definitely the potential for some more intense mesoscale banding with this system. The 12z GFS has decent mid-level frontogenesis over central PA at 00z tonight. There is also some areas of negative EPV collocated with high relative humidity which may support the presence of some CSI. This mechanism cannot be underestimated in terms of getting some surprisingly high snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This mechanism cannot be underestimated in terms of getting some surprisingly high snow totals. There is already some good evidence of banding upstream. Check out the band coming into Ohio just south of Dayton and going through Columbus... probably 1" per hour rates under that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Pretty much right where we were modeled to be by the NAM, right? And Walker Building is back down to 39F. Seems in step with the sun going back away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 From MU's Eric Horst: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 From MU's Eric Horst: specialwxmap.jpg Yeah, Eric called me just after I made that previous prediction post to hear what I had to say. He changed his original prediction (80' of snow, 102' of ice) to the quoted below: Here in Lancaster, however, the near-freezing air won't arrive until after midnight and most of the steady precip will be gone by then. While I can't rule out a few wet flakes or sleet pellets after midnight, it's areas west of I-81 that have the best chance of seeing some accumulating snow and perhaps even a little ice Kidding aside, he's usually right on for the Lancaster area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yeah, Eric called me just after I made that previous prediction post to hear what I had to say. He changed his original prediction (80' of snow, 102' of ice) to the quoted below: Kidding aside, he's usually right on for the Lancaster area. Just in case some of y'all in my old stomping grounds do not have the link to his awesome discussions: http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Just in case some of y'all in my old stomping grounds do not have the link to his awesome discussions: http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html There really isn't a need for any other discussion of the LSV. He nails it just about every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yeah, he is the best for the LSV towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson14 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's sleeting where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yeah, he is the best for the LSV towns. I try to keep things in perspective, but my god when he gets wound up for snow...it's time to get excited. With that, good luch CPA tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The mixing line, per Intellicast's radar, is definitely further southeast from northern KY through PA and through southeastern MO and AR than the 12z Hi-Res NAM had modeled at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 FYI Sterling WFO went with a winter storm watch for all Mason-Dixon counties in MD west of the Susquehanna for Sunday/Monday. Would not be surprised if CTP went the same later tonight once this storm clear their CWA. I do not see an ice threat for Lancaster county...York westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The mixing line, per Intellicast's radar, is definitely further southeast from northern KY through PA and through southeastern MO and AR than the 12z Hi-Res NAM had modeled at this time. I don't like using that radar-it usually shows it too cold at least in my area around NYC. However, it's a good sign that so many snow and sleet reports are showing up already near PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Eric Horst's new map for Sunday - Monday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I don't like using that radar-it usually shows it too cold at least in my area around NYC. However, it's a good sign that so many snow and sleet reports are showing up already near PIT. Ya, I agree. One should take the Intellicast radar's precip type with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I like the PSU regional radar: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 FYI Sterling WFO went with a winter storm watch for all Mason-Dixon counties in MD west of the Susquehanna for Sunday/Monday. Would not be surprised if CTP went the same later tonight once this storm clear their CWA. I do not see an ice threat for Lancaster county...York westward. Dr Greg Forbes posted on facebook the NWS forecast of probabilities of freezing rain Sunday morning to Monday morning... its not uploading here well from my phone but if I am reading it right has southeast PA in the 80%+ area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 New NAM has toned down the precip after 00z, but still has a solid 3-6" across the UNV-IPT corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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