snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 sweet sweet run. everyone has already made great points. one thing I love about this run is how the wedge is essentially stationary all day. It even strengthens a bit in the afternoon. Love CAD...it is one of the few things we do well... Oh yeah...who wants to start the Friday the 13th storm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 6z gfs run is horrid. The gfs and euro have literally switched positions with each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Hope that euro works out for you frozen precip lovers 6z gfs for iad has about .4 qpf before surface goes above freezing...850s are + for duration of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 6z gfs run is horrid. The gfs and euro have literally switched positions with each other Yes it is, but there's hope on the horizon http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41745-december-pattern-discussion/?p=2506625 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Storm name? NO EAT-O THE YELLOW SLEET-O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Not only do the big 2 appear to have switched, it's interesting to note that the NAM and GFS have now completely reversed ideas on the timing of the cold coming in on Friday night. I'm sure the timing of that cold air is playing a role in the forecasts for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Not only do the big 2 appear to have switched, it's interesting to note that the NAM and GFS have now completely reversed ideas on the timing of the cold coming in on Friday night. I'm sure the timing of that cold air is playing a role in the forecasts for Sunday. Yep, I noticed NAM is much quicker than GFS I like that because NAM picks up on CAD better (welll...usually) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yep, I noticed NAM is much quicker than GFS I like that because NAM picks up on CAD better (welll...usually) But again you are talking about the far end of the NAM. It really does come down to how much cold air is able to spill in behind the front and whether there is enough of a high to the north to help keep some of the low level cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 But again you are talking about the far end of the NAM. It really does come down to how much cold air is able to spill in behind the front and whether there is enough of a high to the north to help keep some of the low level cold in place. it looks like what gives the front a kick east on the NAM is the wave on the front is a bit stronger and moves NE faster which helps to drag the front through it is the end of the NAM, which I agree is scary to even discuss, but it shows what it shows so we "weenie discuss" assuming GFS moves toward NAM next run, we'll see of that even makes a difference on later hours on the GFS because it may not mean anything, idk, but I would prefer cold air to get in faster and roll the dice NAM was faster at 0Z too, so hopefully it's seeing something well there you go, 5 lines that could have been summed up with "idk"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Both 00z GFS and 06z GFS give me about a half inch QPF of snow, sleet and freezing rain before the change to rain. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 So in EURO WE TRUST now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 So in EURO WE TRUST now? for now; usually it's in Euro we're stuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Knowing the GFS, 12z will be reverting back to better solutions, however its just impossible to predict accurately the wavering of these models. This is not a complex set-up, but the CAD is tough to model. For once, I am interested to see what the NAM has to say within range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 So in EURO WE TRUST now? Until you roll out the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Winterwxluvr, if you like a major ice storm, the Canadian is the way to go for you. Immense CAD with heavy precip moving through. Temps around 26-28 in your neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Storm name? NO EAT-O THE YELLOW SLEET-O Thanks, Pedro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Does anybody know what the 0z Euro ensemble mean showed? That's where I'd put most of my faith right now. Unless it showed no snow or ice. Then I'd toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 How does Ji say it...if the gfs shows snow and the euro doesn't then no snow...if the euro shows snow but the gfs doesn't then no snow...if they both show snow then no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 All I can see is the 120 portion WxUSAF... 1036/7 High just west of Northern Maine in Quebec... 850s are around +2 in DC region... 0c 850 line is Mason-Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Very legit question from weenie land cheap seats. How different is the Euro to GFS NAM runs? Just quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 How does Ji say it...if the gfs shows snow and the euro doesn't then no snow...if the euro shows snow but the gfs doesn't then no snow...if they both show snow then no snow Unless the JMA supports, it's no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Winterwxluvr, if you like a major ice storm, the Canadian is the way to go for you. Immense CAD with heavy precip moving through. Temps around 26-28 in your neck. I've seen where DT is in love with it. I just threw the name out because of Yoda. I haven't seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Knowing the GFS, 12z will be reverting back to better solutions, however its just impossible to predict accurately the wavering of these models. This is not a complex set-up, but the CAD is tough to model. For once, I am interested to see what the NAM has to say within range. Is it "wavering" or simply different computer simulations based on evolving input parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I've seen where DT is in love with it. I just threw the name out because of Yoda. I haven't seen it. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html lotta ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html lotta ice It stops before the precip really gets in here, but that 120 image is icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html lotta ice gresil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 no worries...if this storm fails...we have more in the pipeline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 All I can see is the 120 portion WxUSAF... 1036/7 High just west of Northern Maine in Quebec... 850s are around +2 in DC region... 0c 850 line is Mason-Dixon line Sounds pretty close to the Euro Op at 120 then. no worries...if this storm fails...we have more in the pipeline Whoa…EVERY Euro ensemble member has >=2" of snow for JYO in the next 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 no worries...if this storm fails...we have more in the pipeline Thanks for the epileptic seizure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Thanks for the epileptic seizure thanks for being a voice for epilepsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.