DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro is nuts in western burbsVery icy Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It sucks for bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Can't really ask for a better run. Gfs and euro similar with onset time. That is key. Looks icy too but I have plenty of doubts there. Just give me a dang inch and I'll take my ball and go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Much better for dc than Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It sucks for bwi Care to elaborate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Can't really ask for a better run. Gfs and euro similar with onset time. That is key. Looks icy too but I have plenty of doubts there. Just give me a dang inch and I'll take my ball and go home. Hopefully just colder and wetter trends from hearing moving forward. This is a big change by euro. Hopefully no more major waffles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Care to elaborate. Drier and warmer . Quicker change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Much better for dc than BaltimoreVerbatim this run you're right. The western burbs get the bulk of early qpf. Usually in these events though if its coming in from that SW direction, both DC and Baltimore do okay. Even if you are in Baltimore, the run is a nice trend in terms of temps for you. QPF is still to be resolved and thats assuming the models start to lock in on the propagation of the system and onset times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Care to elaborate. Don't sweat it. It's precip totals early that make it look bad. Splitting hairs. If I get 1-2 then so do you. Temps are much improved and precip moves in faster. Ideal changes overall. Winwxlvr still at risk of roof collapse and downed high tension lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Almost an inch frozen in western burbs ...QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Drier and warmer . Quicker change over Verbatim this run you're right. The western burbs get the bulk of early qpf. Usually in these events though if its coming in from that SW direction, both DC and Baltimore do okay. Even if you are in Baltimore, the run is a nice trend in terms of temps for you. QPF is still to be resolved and thats assuming the models start to lock in on the propagation of the system and onset times. Don't sweat it. It's precip totals early that make it look bad. Splitting hairs. If I get 1-2 then so do you. Temps are much improved and precip moves in faster. Ideal changes overall. Winwxlvr still at risk of roof collapse and downed high tension lines. Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Don't sweat it. It's precip totals early that make it look bad. Splitting hairs. If I get 1-2 then so do you. Temps are much improved and precip moves in faster. Ideal changes overall. Winwxlvr still at risk of roof collapse and downed high tension lines.Our posts say nearly identical points. Good to be on the same page Bob. Euro definitely a solid improvement. Now if CAD can show itself more inmpressively as we near crunch time, those west of the bay even close to it could be in for a solid early season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Hopefully just colder and wetter trends from hearing moving forward. This is a big change by euro. Hopefully no more major waffles It's a big change in the sense that it made a big move towards the gfs. You should text dt and let him know. I think we know where this is going. Not sure it can get much colder at the surface or above. Just need the precip to come in quick and not be 5 mile vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's a big change in the sense that it made a big move towards the gfs. You should text dt and let him know. I think we know where this is going. Not sure it can get much colder at the surface or above. Just need the precip to come in quick and not be 5 mile vis. Once we get the NAM on board tomorrow night we are set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's a big change in the sense that it made a big move towards the gfs. You should text dt and let him know. I think we know where this is going. Not sure it can get much colder at the surface or above. Just need the precip to come in quick and not be 5 mile vis. I don't know necessarily that it can get much colder, but it definitely can lock in the CAD a decent time longer, which I believe Winterwxluvr has said along with others numerous times. This high is impressive and the quasi 50/50 in place keeps it in a favorable enough location I'd expect a trend to better CAD for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 dt is hugging the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 dt is hugging the ggemWhich is almost 1" of QPF as heavy icing for JYO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Nam will show 1060 high and cad to Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Our posts say nearly identical points. Good to be on the same page Bob. Euro definitely a solid improvement. Now if CAD can show itself more inmpressively as we near crunch time, those west of the bay even close to it could be in for a solid early season event. Yes, it's becoming more clear. The changeover from snow to ip will likely be s-n and zr from e-w as usual. Further west will have the highest snow totals verbatim because of trajectory at onset. They get the goods first. I'm enjoying tracking this very much. It's a fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yes, it's becoming more clear. The changeover from snow to ip will likely be s-n and zr from e-w. Further west will have the highest snow totals verbatim because of trajectory at onset. They get the goods first. I'm enjoying tracking this very much. It's a fun event. The only thing i am worried about is if the conditions are bad enough Sunday and the Ravens game turns into a running game, that could be a major problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Any more events on euro? Btw...it's much drier for Friday Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The only thing i am worried about is if the conditions are bad enough Sunday and the Ravens game turns into a running game, that could be a major problem. Tracking the spread and o/u will give you better clues than listening to me. I'm just a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Tracking the spread and o/u will give you better clues than listening to me. I'm just a weenie. Some weenies like you know their sh!t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yes, it's becoming more clear. The changeover from snow to ip will likely be s-n and zr from e-w. Further west will have the highest snow totals verbatim because of trajectory at onset. They get the goods first. I'm enjoying tracking this very much. It's a fun event.Yes sir, and not only that its one of those events that might get even better as we near game time. We have been here before, not a great example but remember the morning of 1/25/11 overnight with the success on the front end? The precip came in early when things were colder, and overperformed. The modeling on that was not really even existent. I see this as an event with snow likely for all areas at least for a few hours then ice all the way to the bay even for a few hours, obviously being more long term over OKV and MRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Hopefully just colder and wetter trends from hearing moving forward. This is a big change by euro. Hopefully no more major waffles Four days out at this point, I expect some definite waffling to occur. I think the waffles will get a bit colder, though. Globals always have issues with strength of CAD from this range. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Any more events on euro? Btw...it's much drier for Friday Saturday Good God JI, COASTAL AT 228. I'm not kidding either. Solid .5-.75 all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The euro just drank some 18z gfs juice. Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Good God JI, COASTAL AT 228. I'm not kidding either. Solid .5-.75 all snow. Lol, let's at least get it to 144 until we all weenie out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Good God JI, COASTAL AT 228. I'm not kidding either. Solid .5-.75 all snow. There is another one forming at 240 too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Lol, let's at least get it to 144 until we all weenie out. It's a phantom for sure but if you look at the 12z run there is some precip breaking out in the Carolinas and some vorticity at h5. I was going to comment on it earlier today. It didn't seem important and it was wimpy so it wasn't worth mentioning at the time. Kinda worth mentioning now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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