snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I guess if we are looking at 30 mile shifts in 850 lines or precip contours it is. Otherwise I see very little real difference. I see precip and cold nearby. At this point that's about the best we're gonna get as far as a crystal ball goes. Just my opinion. you're in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 I guess if we are looking at 30 mile shifts in 850 lines or precip contours it is. Otherwise I see very little real difference. I see precip and cold nearby. At this point that's about the best we're gonna get as far as a crystal ball goes. Just my opinion. In our favor, we have the weenie-ism with some truth to it that CAD usually isn't modeled well this far out and it does sometimes gets stronger the closer in we get to the event. And if all else fails, we'll get a NAM run that just crushes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It is going to be dry and warm....the euro is a rock.... You know it. Friggin pre-programmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Good run for the northeast...... I personally think the cold air hangs tough. Really it could become a scenario where this isn't settled until Saturday Thanks for letting us know..we were all curious how you guys fared this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 you're in a good spot He is always in a good spot, but to echo him for where i am in Baltimore it is not much worse than 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Nothing has changed in 3 days. 18z happy hour is over. The only thing to do right now is contemplate real life problems as you fall asleep. If those problems aren't serious enough just stay up for the euro and finish the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 My cap in the broader DC area as it stands is probably about 1".. pure snow at least. Haven't looked hard enough at the sleet angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 In our favor, we have the weenie-ism with some truth to it that CAD usually isn't modeled well this far out and it does sometimes gets stronger the closer in we get to the event. And if all else fails, we'll get a NAM run that just crushes us. West of the fall line is going to get a lot of icing if guidance (including the Euro) is accurate in depicting the high location. A 1035-1040 high over New England as the steady precip comes in is not going to give in easily as the typical 1026mb highs already sliding off Nova Scotia. Obviously for east of the fall line, there are finer details to worry about, not the least being the time of year where even 10 or 20 degrees of too much easterly component can sink the chances for frozen quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 After this storm is some serious cold, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 My cap in the broader DC area as it stands is probably about 1".. pure snow at least. Haven't looked hard enough at the sleet angle. I think we'll mix and then go to sleet pretty quickly once the precip gets heavier...like you said...for me and you we want that initial frontrunner to be decent enough to give us some measurable. It might come in pretty early too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 West of the fall line is going to get a lot of icing if guidance (including the Euro) is accurate in depicting the high location. A 1035-1040 high over New England as the steady precip comes in is not going to give in easily as the typical 1026mb highs already sliding off Nova Scotia. Obviously for east of the fall line, there are finer details to worry about, not the least being the time of year where even 10 or 20 degrees of too much easterly component can sink the chances for frozen quickly. I'm worried the air mass isn't cold enough...the good source air mass will still be stuck well to our west. ..Buffalo is going to be 34 on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think we'll mix and then go to sleet pretty quickly once the precip gets heavier...like you said...for me and you we want that initial frontrunner to be decent enough to give us some measurable. It might come in pretty early too. Yeah, we might not get much time pure snow if any here. Early is preferable! The air mass is kind of bootleg as you note. I wouldn't feel all that great even to the west (or lowlands west at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 My 11 mile w of the fall line back yard and 410' of elevation is an ace in the sleeve. Jokes aside, orh is right and we've gone down this road so many times. We're gonna start frozen and gonna changeover. Sometimes it hangs and surprises and sometimes it caves and folds. But this has the makings of an event that could hang and will probably be a nowcast event for determining the change at each location. The models aren't all over the place at all. The differences are subtle. It's a fun event in a desperate and starved region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'm worried the air mass isn't cold enough...the good source air mass will still be stuck well to our west. ..Buffalo is going to be 34 on sunday Eh, that might be pushing it with 850 temps of -8C to -10C. Euro 2m temps for Sunday afternoon are below 32F W of I-95 down in MD/VA with some upper 20s in the better CAD spots. I'm pretty confident as modeled there will be pretty significant icing W of the fall line. Though I think your concern is valid for closer to the cities. You would typically like to see a bigger push of the core of arctic air into the region. If it ends up any weaker than modeled, then there could be a lot of 32F marginal icing that ends up not being big deal west of town and mostly rain in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 My 11 mile w of the fall line back yard and 410' of elevation is an ace in the sleeve. Jokes aside, orh is right and we've gone down this road so many times. We're gonna start frozen and gonna changeover. Sometimes it hangs and surprises and sometimes it caves and folds. But this has the makings of an event that could hang and will probably be a nowcast event for determining the change at each location. The models aren't all over the place at all. The differences are subtle. It's a fun event in a desperate and starved region. but huge at the same time depending on location...If I get 7 sleet pellets and then a cold rain, I'm not going to be lauding the models getting the idea right....west is the place to be, and I will live vicariously through them as i often do....The 18z GFS got me hot and bothered for a minute because I am insane, incorrigible and irrational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Eh, that might be pushing it with 850 temps of -8C to -10C. Euro 2m temps for Sunday afternoon are below 32F W of I-95 down in MD/VA with some upper 20s in the better CAD spots. I'm pretty confident as modeled there will be pretty significant icing W of the fall line. Though I think your concern is valid for closer to the cities. You would typically like to see a bigger push of the core of arctic air into the region. If it ends up any weaker than modeled, then there could be a lot of 32F marginal icing that ends up not being big deal west of town and mostly rain in town. We agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Sub Zero wind chills at the end of the run (Next Wed Morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 but huge at the same time depending on location...If I get 7 sleet pellets and then a cold rain, I'm not going to be lauding the models getting the idea right....west is the place to be, and I will live vicariously through them as i often do....The 18z GFS got me hot and bothered for a minute because I am insane, incorrigible and irrationalAgree but we just don't know yet. The 18z was porn but porn stars don't like weather geeks. Once we get to Friday the solutions for each yard will be more set in stone. Right now just scoping and hoping is all we got. It not like a real airmass isn't available. There is some cold to work with here. It's not fantasy or manufactured cold at least. Whatever shakes out you and I will be on the low impact end. Thats always the case with these. I don't think we should assume the low end is a disaster yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Agree but we just don't know yet. The 18z was porn but porn stars don't like weather geeks. Once we get to Friday the solutions for each yard will be more set in stone. Right now just scoping and hoping is all we got. It not like a real airmass isn't available. There is some cold to work with here. It's not fantasy or manufactured cold at least. Whatever shakes out you and I will be on the low impact end. Thats always the case with these. I don't think we should assume the low end is a disaster yet. yes..plus my benchmark for success is so low....I am a broken man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Roller coaster next 7 days coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 10 days chasing a shot at maybe an inch or two. This has to be one of the worst areas in terms of snowfall per event shown in the medium range.That and we're all insane, kind of like Cleveland Browns fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 10 days chasing a shot at maybe an inch or two. This has to be one of the worst areas in terms of snowfall per event shown in the medium range.That and we're all insane, kind of like Cleveland Browns fans. The crazy part is that they have fans in the first place. GGEM out to 72 for Yoda and company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro is icy. Colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Nice euro run. 1-2" immediate w dc burbs through 12z. Def some pellets and ice following through 18z and surface freezing running 95 through 0z. Euro moved towards gfs faster timing. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Nice burst of snow on euro to start early Sunday morning 2-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Wake Matt up he may lose control of himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro now snowier for me than gfs. 4 inches if I'm just looking at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro now snowier for me than gfs. 4 inches if I'm just looking at 850 I am looking for the storm where you look at the 850's and have 12" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Nice Ji, can you please show that for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro is nuts in western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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