Amped Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 850 line never gets that far south of us. I didn't think this would end well with the insane southeast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's not great, but not horrible either. You kinda have to be out in the NW portions of the LWX CWA if you really want anything from this storm per this GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 It really isn't as bad as I was led to believe. It's no 18z, but it's not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Is it still wet ? Or euro dry somewhat wet..It is quite a bit of frozen for you..maybe 0.3" of snow/sleet and then 0.3" or so of ZR and then rain...the globals aren't going to get the details of the CAD right..so maybe it holds on longer than progged or maybe not...too early to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Does it really matter at hour 100+?probably matters more than the modeled CAD 100 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Throw it out.. wait for the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Does it really matter at hour 100+? agreed...let's talk about how it was 55 today and we can resume this thread on Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 As usual the euro will decide our fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 You know as well as anyone that never happens.. GFS temps on a 100+ hour forecast in a CAD situation are never reality. ?..CAD is often the one thing that actually trends in our favor...not saying it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 agreed...let's talk about how it was 55 today and we can resume this thread on Saturday.. I actually got to 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 ?..CAD is often the one thing that actually trends in our favor...not saying it will That's my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 somewhat wet..It is quite a bit of frozen for you..maybe 0.3" of snow/sleet and then 0.3" or so of ZR and then rain...the globals aren't going to get the details of the CAD right..so maybe it holds on longer than progged or maybe not...too early to tell You're right, he CAD is usually a little tougher than modeled this far out. This run doesn't seem all that different than 18z. Wonder what next week will look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Isn't that bad, for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It really isn't as bad as I was led to believe. It's no 18z, but it's not terrible. Did you move back to HGR without telling us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 You're right, he CAD is usually a little tougher than modeled this far out. This run doesn't seem all that different than 18z. Wonder what next week will look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 As usual the euro will decide our fate. Damn powerful weather model if it actually controls the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 somewhat wet..It is quite a bit of frozen for you..maybe 0.3" of snow/sleet and then 0.3" or so of ZR and then rain...the globals aren't going to get the details of the CAD right..so maybe it holds on longer than progged or maybe not...too early to tell The high is decently strong and in a pretty good position. You would think the CAD would be better. We are going to go back and forth the next few days anyways. One run is no big deal. It usually comes down to inside 48hrs as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Did you move back to HGR without telling us? I'm counting on the hills of Columbia Heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 As usual the euro will decide our fate. But we know what the euro will say...we've been at this too long..we know the drill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 You're right, he CAD is usually a little tougher than modeled this far out. This run doesn't seem all that different than 18z. Wonder what next week will look like. It's different (more so for me than you), but it's not as awful as it was painted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 gfs gets us to 60 on monday...ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 But we know what the euro will say...we've been at this too long..we know the drill Wake me up if we get a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's different (more so for me than you), but it's not as awful as it was painted. Despite the proclamations of the NCEP guys about verification..and I have no doubt they are right...we have been at this for years now and we know when it comes to winter storms here the 18z GFS is "special" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's different (more so for me than you), but it's not as awful as it was painted. I guess if we are looking at 30 mile shifts in 850 lines or precip contours it is. Otherwise I see very little real difference. I see precip and cold nearby. At this point that's about the best we're gonna get as far as a crystal ball goes. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Wake me up if we get a surprise. It is going to be dry and warm....the euro is a rock.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Good run for the northeast...... I personally think the cold air hangs tough. Really it could become a scenario where this isn't settled until Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 gfs gets us to 60 on monday...ha And about 25 on Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If your using the PSU E-Wall, it's still stuck on last nights 00z run for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If your using the PSU E-Wall, it's still stuck on last nights 00z run for whatever reason. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Problem is those front running bands often don't happen as modeled. If it doesn't this storm sucks IMBY at least. Air will be dry going in. Could virga for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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