winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 still have 5-6 days, so im sure their will be many changes and models will flip flop a few times, im not getting excited or depressed till were with in a day or too of storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 still have 5-6 days, so im sure their will be many changes and models will flip flop a few times, im not getting excited or depressed till were with in a day or too of storm lol Sounds reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 According to 12z GFS ensemble members and the OP(accumulated snow depth) at 132: 9 of the 11 have at least 1" 7 of the 11 have at least 3" 4 of the 11 have at least 6" I am going to assume that sleet accumulation is included in the maps EDIT: I see WxUSAF ninja'd me some According to 18z GFS ensemble members and the OP(accumulated snow depth) at 132 (I used 132 since 18z GFS holds on to frozen precip a lil longer than 12z did): 10 of the 11 have at least 1" 6 of the 11 have at least 3" 4 of the 11 have at least 6" (another is really close) Once again, I am going to assume that sleet accumulation is included in the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 According to 18z GFS ensemble members and the OP(accumulated snow depth) at 132 (I used 132 since 18z GFS holds on to frozen precip a lil longer than 12z did): 10 of the 11 have at least 1" 6 of the 11 have at least 3" 4 of the 11 have at least 6" (another is really close) Once again, I am going to assume that sleet accumulation is included in the maps Probably some rain accumulation too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Too bad ground will still be warm from the 60s on Thursday...thought I might be able to use my new snow blower on a clearing job this weekend to get the ice pellets off teh driveway and sidewalk Maybe next month, although longer days pose a different kind of challenge not exactly... we'll have a few colder days between Thursday and this storm, so that will take care of that issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Probably some rain accumulation too I used Raleigh's maps which said snow accumulation, so i don't think so... but perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Damn Yoda. 1 member dropped from 3 to 1. Thats a terrible trend. And I though the op run looked good. Fool me once... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Damn Yoda. 1 member dropped from 3 to 1. Thats a terrible trend. And I though the op run looked good. Fool me once... Well we went up one in the 6" dept I kept it out though cause it was just west of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Have a friend named Jacque Le Kiboche' at the ECMWF who gave me a free 0z euro preview. Here is our coldest panel. Blue contour is 32 degrees at surface.... 0zeuro.PNG I didn't know there was a MS Paint contest! It gon' snow. (or sleet or something). At some point. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The Sunday Slurpee. Should be fun for tailgating at FedEx. Snow would certainly be easier to deal with at a tailgate than sleet/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Belated Dec 5 storms are never as good as the Real Thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The Sunday Slurpee. Should be fun for tailgating at FedEx. Snow would certainly be easier to deal with at a tailgate than sleet/rain. That's the name! Call the thread the Sunday Slurpee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Call it jays wintry mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Call it jays wintry mix Who is Jay? Jay Schroeder? Lookin good at 63.. diggin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 That's the name! Call the thread the Sunday Slurpee! Randy has already trademarked that phrase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Damn, NW Arkansas and even Memphis may be in for a nice winter event. NAM/GFS blend agree. Memphis yall. Memphis may get more winter weather than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Who is Jay? Jay Schroeder? Lookin good at 63.. diggin Jay Schroeder bounced a lot of balls in the dirt! What a random name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Damn, NW Arkansas and even Memphis may be in for a nice winter event. NAM/GFS blend agree. Memphis yall. Memphis may get more winter weather than us. Ribs and snow.. finga lickin good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Jay Schroeder bounced a lot of balls in the dirt! What a random name RG3 keeping the skins tradition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Just talked to snow. He has the GFS out to 300 hours already and says it is rain for DCA but about a foot in CHO and 6-8 in Newport News. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This probably is not going to be a good GFS run... CAD is weaker than the 18z and even the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Damn, NW Arkansas and even Memphis may be in for a nice winter event. NAM/GFS blend agree. Memphis yall. Memphis may get more winter weather than Dallas getting a division title and their 2nd winter event of the year:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This probably is not going to be a good GFS run... CAD is weaker than the 18z and even the 12z run Hmmm.. what hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This probably is not going to be a good GFS run... CAD is weaker than the 18z and even the 12z run It's not great..back to reality.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's not great..back to reality.... Yup... few hrs of sleet, maybe snow if lucky to start and then off to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Is it still wet ? Or euro dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If this CAD is legit it will be a significant event for NW portions of CWA. What is nice about the last few runs, is it stays cold for a long time. I just don't like the idea of being 45 degrees and rain 6 hours after the onset of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Is it still wet ? Or euro dry Does it really matter at hour 100+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's not great, but not horrible either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If this CAD is legit it will be a significant event for NW portions of CWA. What is nice about the last few runs, is it stays cold for a long time. I just don't like the idea of being 45 degrees and rain 6 hours after the onset of precip You know as well as anyone that never happens.. GFS temps on a 100+ hour forecast in a CAD situation are never reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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