clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Nice. 6-8 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS started out good with the initial burst but its now matching the European with the dryness...then it gets wet when it dosent count..after it warms It should be better than 6Z when all is said and done, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I should know this but is the text output link free? for temps with height. COD is stuck on hour 6 even though they're usually fast with soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The NAM is on Cobb if thats what your looking for. For DCA anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It looks like .25+ for DC before 850's warm above freezing. That's ok with me. If DC proper can scrape out an inch before transition to freezing rain/rain i'll be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I should know this but is the text output link free? for temps with height. COD is stuck on hour 6 even though they're usually fast with soundings. http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm is usually pretty quick I think Arl.noaa.gov has been quicker lately Twisterdata has been slow I think there is something goofy with this GFS run...it was stuck for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I agree with you on every point, except the warm nose. I'd use the globals for that right now. I think the NAM is too quick. But of course I could be wrong. Every other point I agree with. Thanks for your thoughts. They are appreciated. No problem -- thank you. The timing of the warm nose should be interesting. Would like to have more westerly vs. SW flow aloft (above the CAD layer) through 700 mb. When we get that more frontogenetic profile aloft, temps in the 850-750 mb layer tend to remain below 0C for a while longer, whereas this has the look (strong SW flow) of one of those scenarios where the warm nose lifts NE faster than we expect, with the 700 mb confluent zone moving off the northern NE coast by 21Z while the shortwave 700 mb ridge moves into the eastern GL and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wait--- do you think 0.25-0.5" QPF means 0.25-0.5" of snow? No. The average (good 12Z run and bad 6Z run) is about .25 over 12 hours. Take away 25% for the first couple hours of virga. You end up with .17 over 6 hours. That's not accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 96.1 out of Harrisonburg VA is saying AccuWeather believes the Central Shenandoah Valley will be the battle ground for a major ice event. Possible to rival 96 ice storm. Any models showing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It looks like .25+ for DC before 850's warm above freezing. That's ok with me. If DC proper can scrape out an inch before transition to freezing rain/rain i'll be satisfied. GFS has something for everyone as far as precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Anyway...I apologize for my NAM crusade...I do it every winter...if people know how to use it, good on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It wasn't so fun when it put us under a WSW on 12/26/10...It wasn't fun in October 2011 when it precipitated warnings way too far east. It wasn't fun for the innumerable lows from the west where it gave us 0.25"+ of QPF and we got 0.04"...It wasn't fun when it gave us 2" liquid for March 6th. It wasn't fun when it shifted 100 miles in one run on the southern low last winter that blasted CHO and gave us nothing.It wasn't fun on every event with a secondary when it completely misses the dry slot. Here, here, snow. Thanks for the recap. Why LWX uses it is beyond me. Public disservice. And you have been spot on with your forecasts with amazing consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 No. The average (good 12Z run and bad 6Z run) is about .25 over 12 hours. Take away 25% for the first couple hours of virga. You end up with .17 over 6 hours. That's not accumulating snow. ideally models are supposed to account for virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm is usually pretty quick I think Arl.noaa.gov has been quicker lately Twisterdata has been slow I think there is something goofy with this GFS run...it was stuck for a bit lol, blocked at work for some reason. twisterdata is almost there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Here, here, snow. Thanks for the recap. Why LWX uses it is beyond me. Public disservice. And you have been spot on with your forecasts with amazing consistency. They have done a good job in a hard to forecast area...I shouldn't be so hard on the,m...They have seen things early that many of us miss...They are a good office... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 No. The average (good 12Z run and bad 6Z run) is about .25 over 12 hours. Take away 25% for the first couple hours of virga. You end up with .17 over 6 hours. That's not accumulating snow. Models account for virga. This has been rehashed numerous times through the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 They have done a good job in a hard to forecast area...I shouldn't be so hard on the,m...They have seen things early that many of us miss...They are a good office... They're seemingly one of the least good offices oddly enough. Our area is pretty tricky though. I doubt it's their reliance on the NAM.. which has its uses even though we always go down the hate the nam road in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 We're over a 1k replies for this thread. Somebody else start another one BECAUSE IM NEVER STARTING ANOTHER MF'ING THREAD AT THIS PLACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 They have done a good job in a hard to forecast area...I shouldn't be so hard on the,m...They have seen things early that many of us miss...They are a good office... this post made isohume smile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 We're over a 1k replies for this thread. Somebody else start another one Is there a limit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 They're seemingly one of the least good offices oddly enough. Our area is pretty tricky though. I doubt it's their reliance on the NAM.. which has its uses even though we always go down the hate the nam road in winter. my opinion is based on years of experience following every event...people have very short memories..and tend to be unteachable....I know you have said it is good for severe and some other events...That is good...I don't follow it enough to know...I still have yet to understand what it is useful for for winter storms, but maybe I just don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is there a limit? not really but when we used to have server issues more regularly it was suggested by our former leader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is there a limit? Not per se, but it does strain the server a bit after 1k in one thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 my opinion is based on years of experience following every event...people have very short memories..and tend to be unteachable....I know you have said it is good for severe and some other events...That is good...I don't follow it enough to know...I still have yet to understand what it is useful for for winter storms, but maybe I just don't get it it did pretty good in the Feb 2010 event right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I have been following the parallel NAM for a while now when at work; I don't have any qualitative data to share but it does seem to be doing a better job than the current NAM, at least with QPF. I am not with EMC so I couldn't tell you when the rollout schedule is, but I imagine there is a target date out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 other thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41889-dc-icesnowstorm-128-part-ii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 my opinion is based on years of experience following every event...people have very short memories..and tend to be unteachable....I know you have said it is good for severe and some other events...That is good...I don't follow it enough to know...I still have yet to understand what it is useful for for winter storms, but maybe I just don't get it I guess I don't pay enough attention. I don't really focus too much on the NAM until about 24 hours out. It seems to be pretty good in general from there. I wouldn't favor it on QPF etc but temps it seems decent. I like it for timing and such especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I have been following the parallel NAM for a while now when at work; I don't have any qualitative data to share but it does seem to be doing a better job than the current NAM, at least with QPF. I am not with EMC so I couldn't tell you when the rollout schedule is, but I imagine there is a target date out there. That is good to hear...I know improvements have been in the works for some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM is pretty good 6-12 hours after the storm has ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 They have done a good job in a hard to forecast area...I shouldn't be so hard on the,m...They have seen things early that many of us miss...They are a good office... I think the many times they have been off have really startled me. I do not like to disparage public servants. But everything they put out has real life implications. Troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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