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The "What To Title The Storm?" Thread - Dec 8-9


stormtracker

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I should know this but is the text output link free? for temps with height. COD is stuck on hour 6 even though they're usually fast with soundings. 

 

http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm is usually pretty quick I think

 

Arl.noaa.gov has been quicker lately

 

Twisterdata has been slow

 

I think there is something goofy with this GFS run...it was stuck for a bit

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I agree with you on every point, except the warm nose.  I'd use the globals for that right now.  I think the NAM is too quick.  But of course I could be wrong.  Every other point I agree with.  Thanks for your thoughts.  They are appreciated.

No problem -- thank you.

 

The timing of the warm nose should be interesting.  Would like to have more westerly vs. SW flow aloft (above the CAD layer) through 700 mb. When we get that more frontogenetic profile aloft, temps in the 850-750 mb layer tend to remain below 0C for a while longer, whereas this has the look (strong SW flow) of one of those scenarios where the warm nose lifts NE faster than we expect, with the 700 mb confluent zone moving off the northern NE coast by 21Z while the shortwave 700 mb ridge moves into the eastern GL and NE.

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Wait--- do you think 0.25-0.5" QPF means 0.25-0.5" of snow?

No.  The average (good 12Z run and bad 6Z run) is about .25 over 12 hours.  Take away 25% for the first couple hours of virga.  You end up with .17 over 6 hours.  That's not accumulating snow.  

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It looks like .25+ for DC before 850's warm above freezing.  That's ok with me.  If DC proper can scrape out an inch before transition to freezing rain/rain i'll be satisfied.

GFS has something for everyone as far as precip type.

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It wasn't so fun when it put us under a WSW on 12/26/10...It wasn't fun in October 2011 when it precipitated warnings way too far east.  It wasn't fun for the innumerable lows from the west where it gave us 0.25"+ of QPF and we got 0.04"...It wasn't fun when it gave us 2" liquid for March 6th.  It wasn't fun when it shifted 100 miles in one run on the southern low last winter that blasted CHO and gave us nothing.It wasn't fun on every event with a secondary when it completely misses the dry slot.

Here, here, snow. Thanks for the recap. Why LWX uses it is beyond me. Public disservice. And you have been spot on with your forecasts with amazing consistency.

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No.  The average (good 12Z run and bad 6Z run) is about .25 over 12 hours.  Take away 25% for the first couple hours of virga.  You end up with .17 over 6 hours.  That's not accumulating snow.  

 

ideally models are supposed to account for virga

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Here, here, snow. Thanks for the recap. Why LWX uses it is beyond me. Public disservice. And you have been spot on with your forecasts with amazing consistency.

 

They have done a good job in a hard to forecast area...I shouldn't be so hard on the,m...They have seen things early that many of us miss...They are a good office...

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No.  The average (good 12Z run and bad 6Z run) is about .25 over 12 hours.  Take away 25% for the first couple hours of virga.  You end up with .17 over 6 hours.  That's not accumulating snow.  

 

Models account for virga. This has been rehashed numerous times through the years

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They have done a good job in a hard to forecast area...I shouldn't be so hard on the,m...They have seen things early that many of us miss...They are a good office...

They're seemingly one of the least good offices oddly enough.  Our area is pretty tricky though. I doubt it's their reliance on the NAM.. which has its uses even though we always go down the hate the nam road in winter.  

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They're seemingly one of the least good offices oddly enough.  Our area is pretty tricky though. I doubt it's their reliance on the NAM.. which has its uses even though we always go down the hate the nam road in winter.  

 

my opinion is based on years of experience  following every event...people have very short memories..and tend to be unteachable....I know you have said it is good for severe and some other events...That is good...I don't follow it enough to know...I still have yet to understand what it is useful for for winter storms, but maybe I just don't get it

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my opinion is based on years of experience  following every event...people have very short memories..and tend to be unteachable....I know you have said it is good for severe and some other events...That is good...I don't follow it enough to know...I still have yet to understand what it is useful for for winter storms, but maybe I just don't get it

it did pretty good in the Feb 2010 event right?

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I have been following the parallel NAM for a while now when at work; I don't have any qualitative data to share but it does seem to be doing a better job than the current NAM, at least with QPF. I am not with EMC so I couldn't tell you when the rollout schedule is, but I imagine there is a target date out there.

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my opinion is based on years of experience  following every event...people have very short memories..and tend to be unteachable....I know you have said it is good for severe and some other events...That is good...I don't follow it enough to know...I still have yet to understand what it is useful for for winter storms, but maybe I just don't get it

 

I guess I don't pay enough attention. I don't really focus too much on the NAM until about 24 hours out. It seems to be pretty good in general from there. I wouldn't favor it on QPF etc but temps it seems decent.  I like it for timing and such especially. 

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I have been following the parallel NAM for a while now when at work; I don't have any qualitative data to share but it does seem to be doing a better job than the current NAM, at least with QPF. I am not with EMC so I couldn't tell you when the rollout schedule is, but I imagine there is a target date out there.

 

That is good to hear...I know improvements have been in the works for some time

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They have done a good job in a hard to forecast area...I shouldn't be so hard on the,m...They have seen things early that many of us miss...They are a good office...

I think the many times they have been off have really startled me. I do not like to disparage public servants. But everything they put out has real life implications. Troubling.

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