SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM thinks we don't get about freezing til 15z monday in DC. I've fallen for the trick of buying the NAMs temps too many times though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Who cares about what the NAM says. It is an inferior model with poor skill at this range. I wouldn't use it at this range for any aspect of the storm....It has no value in terms of assessing the upcoming event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yea, it does seem like a warm panel but temps simply aren't moving much either. Very fun event to track. If I'm 28 @ 8pm then i might start thinking that I get "real" ice this time. I have my doubts still. can you imagine this board in 1994 when it was 19 degrees and it was raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 finger.gif I'm most certainly getting the finger dry slot in this storm. Pretty good consensus in the models. I would need that thump to move about 25-30 miles south and be in business. Oh well, I hope you guys nail this one after the last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Who cares about what the NAM says. It is an inferior model with poor skill at this range. I wouldn't use it at this range for any aspect of the storm....It has no value in terms of assessing the upcoming event Do we reach a point where there are better models to use than the gfs and euro? If so, what would you say they are? I would think the NAM is ok within a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm most certainly getting the finger dry slot in this storm. Pretty good consensus in the models. I would need that thump to move about 25-30 miles south and be in business. Oh well, I hope you guys nail this one after the last 2 years. You are gonna get your share of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I hate arguments like this too because if we end up getting shafted with the early precip then there's the quick swoop to claim victory. Being right for the wrong reasons always bothers me. We're supposed to analyze guidance and not make a contrary wag just caus Not arguing... Please let me know if I am interpreting this wrong... the the 06Z nam run showed like .1 to .25 and the 12z showed .25 to .5... this is for the 12 hours before the freezing rain and sleet sets in... I just cant see how this translate to accumulating snow? This is like gouge your eyeballs out... radar watching/ virga flurries.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 can you imagine this board in 1994 when it was 19 degrees and it was raining Dial up is the first to go in big ice storms so it would have been crickets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 How dry down my way? On cell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Do we reach a point where there are better models to use than the gfs and euro? If so, what would you say they are? I would think the NAM is ok within a day? maybe? I do know that in the means its use has made us all worse forecasters...Sterling's use of it over the years has made them less able at their jobs. There may be pressure to use it as an American model. I don't know. But LWX has put out a worse product for winter events by incorporating it into their guidance. Its use by anyone in the means for winter events will make them a worse forecaster than it they ignored it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not arguing... Please let me know if I am interpreting this wrong... the the 06Z nam run showed like .1 to .25 and the 12z showed .25 to .5... this is for the 12 hours before the freezing rain and sleet sets in... I just cant see how this translate to accumulating snow? This is like gouge your eyeballs out... radar watching/ virga flurries.. It is one run of a model that has no value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Do we reach a point where there are better models to use than the gfs and euro? If so, what would you say they are? I would think the NAM is ok within a day? Yes, especially given the better resolution in the vertical and horizontal. I agree though that once you get beyond 60 hrs, the NAM being off course synoptically could certainly spell doom for it's mesoscale depiction over a certain area. But as long as the NAM is within tolerance with the main players (again typically within a day or two), then by all means take advantage of it's better resolution in the horizontal and vertical with the thermals while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Do we reach a point where there are better models to use than the gfs and euro? If so, what would you say they are? I would think the NAM is ok within a day? SREFs or HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR might be good ones within a day. Red taggers can tell us if I'm wrong(likely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yes, especially given the better resolution in the vertical and horizontal. I agree though that once you get beyond 60 hrs, the NAM being off course synoptically could certainly spell doom for it's mesoscale depiction over a certain area. But as long as the NAM is within tolerance with the main players (again typically within a day or two), then by all means take advantage of it's better resolution in the horizontal and vertical with the thermals while you can. It has a marked cold and wet bias within that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 How dry down my way? On cell... It looks to be about 0.25 QPF frozen in LYH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yea, it does seem like a warm panel but temps simply aren't moving much either. Very fun event to track. If I'm 28 @ 8pm then i might start thinking that I get "real" ice this time. I have my doubts still. Fun in a sadistic way? It's been very interesting. NAM was fun in Dec 2009 when the discussion was about the over/under on the 50 inches of snow some runs were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Slightly more moisture on the 12Z GFS with similar surface temperatures up to hr 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 12z NAM Cobb output for Westminster .4 fzr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not arguing... Please let me know if I am interpreting this wrong... the the 06Z nam run showed like .1 to .25 and the 12z showed .25 to .5... this is for the 12 hours before the freezing rain and sleet sets in... I just cant see how this translate to accumulating snow? This is like gouge your eyeballs out... radar watching/ virga flurries.. Wait--- do you think 0.25-0.5" QPF means 0.25-0.5" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Gfs at 9z still dry as a bone for nova Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Fun in a sadistic way? It's been very interesting. NAM was fun in Dec 2009 when the discussion was about the over/under on the 50 inches of snow some runs were showing. It wasn't so fun when it put us under a WSW on 12/26/10...It wasn't fun in October 2011 when it precipitated warnings way too far east. It wasn't fun for the innumerable lows from the west where it gave us 0.25"+ of QPF and we got 0.04"...It wasn't fun when it gave us 2" liquid for March 6th. It wasn't fun when it shifted 100 miles in one run on the southern low last winter that blasted CHO and gave us nothing.It wasn't fun on every event with a secondary when it completely misses the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Gfs at 9z still dry as a bone for nova Most likely to be expected at this point considering trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It has a marked cold and wet bias within that range. It certainly did during the March 6th event earlier this year, for that matter as did the RAP (within 12 hours), thus as well as the SREF since this model is comprised 2/3 of NAM and RAP members. I do like the fact that the NAM is trending a bit faster with the elevated warm layer Sunday afternoon, poking in first around 775-750 mb then lowering/deepening beyond that. That seems to happens with a setup such as this. The conceptual model looks like a relatively a brief period of anything all frozen (snow, snow pellets, or IP) before going over to FZRA. I also agree that I'd be cautious with any wet solution during the day Sunday. WAA/isentropic lift with the warm conveyor belt is the main player but obviously without cyclogenesis (upper trough axis well to our west) we have no CCB dynamics. I've always felt from the beginning this system doesn't feel right to me, at least in terms of much accumulation of either snow/sleet or ice IMBY (Anne Arundel Co). I could easily see a light mix transitioning to light freezing rain or rain for a while while we hover around 32F at the surface. The latent cooling at the surface due to melting (whether it be sleet and/or freezing rain) would serve as a positive feedback mechanism in keeping the in-situ CAD going on for a while, however at the same time I don't see temps much below freezing here east of I-95 that we would need for your more prototypical ice storm. Definitely looks like a bigger ice event over the typically colder locations W-NW of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 this looks like a good GFS Run early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 this looks like a good GFS Run early on doesn't end super well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It certainly did during the March 6th event earlier this year, for that matter as did the RAP (within 12 hours), thus as well as the SREF. I do like the fact that the NAM is trending a bit faster with the elevated warm layer Sunday afternoon, poking in first around 775-750 mb then lowering/deepening beyond that. The conceptual model looks like a relatively a brief period of anything all frozen (snow, snow pellets, or IP) before going over to FZRA. I also agree that I'd be cautious with any wet solution during the day Sunday. WAA/isentropic lift with the warm conveyor belt is the main player but obviously without cyclogenesis (upper trough axis well to our west) we have no CCB dynamics. I've always felt from the beginning this system doesn't feel right to me, at least in terms of much accumulation of either snow/sleet or ice IMBY (Anne Arundel Co). I could easily see a light mix transitioning to light freezing rain or rain for a while while we hover around 32F at the surface. The latent cooling at the surface due to melting (whether it be sleet and/or freezing rain) would serve as a positive feedback mechanism in keeping the in-situ CAD going on for a while, however at the same time I don't see temps much below freezing here east of I-95 that we would need for your more prototypical ice storm. Definitely looks like a bigger ice event over the typically colder locations W-NW of DC. I agree with you on every point, except the warm nose. I'd use the globals for that right now. I think the NAM is too quick. But of course I could be wrong. Every other point I agree with. Thanks for your thoughts. They are appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 1036 HP right over Central PA, keeping the precip suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think 2-3 inches is best we are going to do around here with snow. this is an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS is pretty much what was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS started out good with the initial burst but its now matching the European with the dryness...then it gets wet when it dosent count..after it warms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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