bigjohndc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Am I reading this correctly that the surface temp (2M) freezing line on the NAM is basically draped over 95 early on Monday morning? Which is why the concern for a major ice storm west of the city is rising? Usually I just lurk, but trying to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 There will still be subtle shifts both with temps and precip each run but no need to panic. Stuff will fall from the sky I've been totally calm for some reason. No run has remotely upset me. Just looking for a non-slantsticked inch and hopefully some gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Am I reading this correctly that the surface temp (2M) freezing line on the NAM is basically draped over 95 early on Monday morning? Which is why the concern for a major ice storm west of the city is rising? Usually I just lurk, but trying to understand. yes, correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I've been totally calm for some reason. No run has remotely upset me. Just looking for a non-slantsticked inch and hopefully some gravy. notice how every run with the heavy precip also has the colder temps the lack of evaporational cooling from lighter precip is what is killing us on this NAM run vs. 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Am I reading this correctly that the surface temp (2M) freezing line on the NAM is basically draped over 95 early on Monday morning? Which is why the concern for a major ice storm west of the city is rising? Usually I just lurk, but trying to understand. You are very correct. Good "non lurking" post. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Good run for sure. 850 definitely a noticeable shift N @ 18z sunday compared to 6z run but precip is in faster so hard to say if it means much overall. Decent precip totals before the changeover all things considered. As MN said, folks out west could be in for a memorable ice storm. Decent consensus there for sure. For DC Baltimore... I see Virga up until 18UTC, Light snow or flurries 18-21UTC, sleet or Freezing rain to 00Z and rain thereafter... With the low tracking up in to the Great Lakes... I just dont see cold air sticking around that long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 How does the progress of the cold air today play into what happens Sunday. We have a heck of a gradient going on today. Winchester is 41, Cho is 66. Does a faster progression suppress the precip on Sunday a little? No effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 How does the progress of the cold air today play into what happens Sunday. We have a heck of a gradient going on today. Winchester is 41, Cho is 66. Does a faster progression suppress the precip on Sunday a little? No effect? it's all pushed to our east and south, high pressure builds in, and then the precip maker comes in I don't think it makes a big difference based on the relatively small detail diff in the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 For DC Baltimore... I see Virga up until 18UTC, Light snow or flurries 18-21UTC, sleet or Freezing rain to 00Z and rain thereafter... With the low tracking up in to the Great Lakes... I just dont see cold air sticking around that long... you might be right but all guidance disagrees. I'll stick with a blend of guidance and say your call is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 you might be right but all guidance disagrees. I'll stick with a blend of guidance and say your call is not good. Here is the thing... that is not may call... that is what I see on the guidance... I just see a small window of snow flurries/ light snow before change over.. To be fair and after reading more... maybe we get a prolonged period of frozen... maybe up to about 1 or 2 AM.. longer than that in western suburbs... but I would be shocked... just floored.. if the cities see more than a dusting of snow... I am just not seeing the upper levels staying cold before we are able to overcome the dry air... hence flurries.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 you mean, if you aren't in the finger, you get the finger on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Here is the thing... that is not may call... that is what I see on the guidance... I just see a small window of snow flurries/ slight snow before change over.. To be fair and after reading more... maybe we get a prolonged period of frozen... maybe up to about 1 or 2 AM.. longer than that in western suburbs... but I would be shocked... just floored.. if the cities see more than a dusting of snow... I am just not seeing the upper levels staying cold before we are able to overcome the dry air... hence flurries.... Our snow chances hinge on rates with the initial wave. Models to take into account virga and when the column saturates so it's not really up to us to guess on that part. But yes, if the initial wave is paltry then snow chances are greatly diminished. There is nothing really throwing a flag there yet. Guidance definitely points towards a relatively quick saturation of the column. This isn't a clipper either. Warm moist air advecting from the gulf is a different animal all together. IMO- an inch in the burbs west of the cities has much better odds than virga and nothing attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Here is the thing... that is not may call... that is what I see on the guidance... I just see a small window of snow flurries/ light snow before change over.. To be fair and after reading more... maybe we get a prolonged period of frozen... maybe up to about 1 or 2 AM.. longer than that in western suburbs... but I would be shocked... just floored.. if the cities see more than a dusting of snow... I am just not seeing the upper levels staying cold before we are able to overcome the dry air... hence flurries.... Yeah, but the models are showing snow in the cities. Are you reading the models or making your own interpretation? Seems more like the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Here is the thing... that is not may call... that is what I see on the guidance... I just see a small window of snow flurries/ light snow before change over.. To be fair and after reading more... maybe we get a prolonged period of frozen... maybe up to about 1 or 2 AM.. longer than that in western suburbs... but I would be shocked... just floored.. if the cities see more than a dusting of snow... I am just not seeing the upper levels staying cold before we are able to overcome the dry air... hence flurries.... Read more and post less...thats not what the 'guidance' says..now maybe the guidance is wrong, and it very well could be, but your mixing you personal opinion and guidance up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Temp snapshot across the area @ 8pm sunday. Hi-res doing a good job picking up terrain features like the FDK bowl. And just for giggles...sim radar for 8pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Temp snapshot across the area @ 8pm sunday. Hi-res doing a good job picking up terrain features like the FDK bowl. namtemps.JPG And just for giggles...sim radar for 8pm: sim radar.JPG 30 seems warm for 8:00pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is this a snow sounding or a sleet sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 finger.gif seems more needle than finger but still not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I still think 0.5-2" is probably the right range for the cities/95 corridor and immediate surroundings. Probably 1-3" a little north/west of those areas. Then ice on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is this a snow sounding or a sleet sounding? According to PD3 that is a virga sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is this a snow sounding or a sleet sounding? It is borderline, but probably mix or sleet unless uber heavy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 you might be right but all guidance disagrees. I'll stick with a blend of guidance and say your call is not good. Based on all available guidance, its a pretty bad call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is this a snow sounding or a sleet sounding? Probably sleet, but it's obviously close. Given how dry it is above 600mb there, could even have a little fzdz mix in if rates are light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I still think 0.5-2" is probably the right range for the cities/95 corridor and immediate surroundings. Probably 1-3" a little north/west of those areas. Then ice on top. precip is obvioously the big wildcard....cold is a lock...and we'll probably stay colder at the surface and mid levels longer than progged...the NAM is clearly wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not bad for IAD http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/2013120612/KIAD/prec.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Based on all available guidance, its a pretty bad call. I hate arguments like this too because if we end up getting shafted with the early precip then there's the quick swoop to claim victory. Being right for the wrong reasons always bothers me. We're supposed to analyze guidance and not make a contrary wag just cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Based on all available guidance, its a pretty bad call. Yes. This one is a tough call. Funny thing you don't see "calls" by many people. It is still a good bit out there. Tomorrow morning it probably becomes a much easier forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Temp snapshot across the area @ 8pm sunday. Hi-res doing a good job picking up terrain features like the FDK bowl. namtemps.JPG And just for giggles...sim radar for 8pm: sim radar.JPG Some of those temps may actually be a tad bit warm for 8pm, but it sure does give you a good idea as to who will receive a) a decent first event of the season and who may see a prolonged icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Really dumping rain out here. NAM has a burst of snow tomorrow afternoon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Some of those temps may actually be a tad bit warm for 8pm, but it sure does give you a good idea as to who will receive a) a decent first event of the season and who may see a prolonged icing event. Yea, it does seem like a warm panel but temps simply aren't moving much either. Very fun event to track. If I'm 28 @ 8pm then i might start thinking that I get "real" ice this time. I have my doubts still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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