birdsofprey02 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 WPC having breakfast at the waffle house today THERE IS A LOT OF COMPLEXITY WITH THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE EFFECTS OF SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK IMPULSES CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WHICH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT FOR A GIVEN AREA. THEREFORE...A LARGE REGION OF THE NATION WILL BE AFFECTED BY SEVERAL MODES OF WINTER...WHETHER IT BE SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OR A COMBINATION OF SOME OR ALL...THAT MAY CHANGE OVER TIME. ALL OF THESE MECHANISMS AND WHERE THEY OCCUR CANNOT BE DISCUSSED IN A DISCUSSION SUCH AS THIS. THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS AT LEAST PAINTS AN IDEA OF WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. No discussing stuff in a discussion so wheres the accompanying graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not sure how valid or useful they are, but the SREF plumes did slightly increase snow accums from 21z to 3z, mainly due to a few more members popping on the high end of possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not sure how valid or useful they are, but the SREF plumes did slightly increase snow accums from 21z to 3z, mainly due to a few more members popping on the high end of possibilities I'll gladly grasp onto that straw for dear life. Good to see something increase not decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not sure how valid or useful they are, but the SREF plumes did slightly increase snow accums from 21z to 3z, mainly due to a few more members popping on the high end of possibilities The other interesting thing about the SREF plumes is that the operational NAM from 00z was 2 degrees colder during the day on Sunday than any other member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 WPC having breakfast at the waffle house today THERE IS A LOT OF COMPLEXITY WITH THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE EFFECTS OF SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK IMPULSES CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WHICH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT FOR A GIVEN AREA. THEREFORE...A LARGE REGION OF THE NATION WILL BE AFFECTED BY SEVERAL MODES OF WINTER...WHETHER IT BE SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OR A COMBINATION OF SOME OR ALL...THAT MAY CHANGE OVER TIME. ALL OF THESE MECHANISMS AND WHERE THEY OCCUR CANNOT BE DISCUSSED IN A DISCUSSION SUCH AS THIS. THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS AT LEAST PAINTS AN IDEA OF WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. No discussing stuff in a discussion Sounds a lot like our threads....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 6z runs obviously not as wet as 0z but does that really come as any surprise? 6z guidance in line with 0z euro overall. All eyes on the handling of the front end. Timing seems to be resolved with onset S-N between 10am and noon or so. Models do show non-uniform precip totals with varying amounts over relatively short distances. How much falls as snow and who gets the most is largely unresolved. Still looks like DCA and immediate burbs are on track for 1-2" but there is risk for lower and higher amounts. Overall, ,50-.75" for the entire area will come in various frozen forms going off of 6z guidance alone. I'm personally mostly interested in the front end wave of precip. Looks to have some e-w orientation to heaviest precip totals. My wag looking at last night and this morning is the higher totals will end up further north or have a larger expanse. Not just saying because i live north. I could easily end up being south of the best stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 And 6z gfs is roughly .50-.61...depending on changeover time it was like 1.50 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 it was like 1.50 00z Surprising you believe either one is correct honestly...go hug your children and make fun of my lights again..it's gonna be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I also have angst because this is probably our final storm of the season FWIW, there is a potential repeat a week from Sunday showing up and there IS a STJ. Regardless of current cold blast, there is definitely an El Nino-like tone to the flow. Just pull up a wv loop and there's clearly a Mid Latitude low over the N-C PAC with split flow in the E PAC. This is no nina, despite this EPO blast (which was really caused by the extending jet from tropical forcing heading into nino phases). So I guess what I'm getting at is...there is plenty of opportunities on the way that will have a great chance at letting you down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Onset is slightly faster than 06z. Snow starting late morning via the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Warmer. Pinging by 18z at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Warmer. Pinging by 18z at DCA. thankfully, it's the NAM we're talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 that finger of moisture has shifted north on the NAM....surprise, surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 thankfully, it's the NAM we're talking about Surface conditions look colder around the metro, though agree that 850mb is warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM finally came around to a pretty decent solution for NE on their wave runner coming through tomorrow, but it took being 24-30 phrs prior to do it 48hrs NAM time = eternity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 that finger of moisture has shifted north on the NAM....surprise, surprise Basically, if you aren't in the "finger", you don't get snow on this run. FZRA for many of us at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Basically, if you aren't in the "finger", you don't get snow on this run. FZRA for many of us at 00z. you mean, if you aren't in the finger, you get the finger on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 ill take this NAM run....hopefully its too warm at 850 but its cold as cold hell at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 DCA on the verge of going to rain at 06z. Man, that is a nasty ice storm west of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 ill take this NAM run....hopefully its too warm at 850 but its cold as cold hell at surface if it's not going to snow or sleet, you may gladly have my ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2-3 inches of snow plus ice will make a good holiday post card scene.So much for my 8-12 inch snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 if it's not going to snow or sleet, you may gladly have my ice storm since we get an ice storm once every 10 years and we got a winter storm once every 5 years....ill take any frozen that i can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ji plus you have low sun angle in your favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Good run for sure. 850 definitely a noticeable shift N @ 18z sunday compared to 6z run but precip is in faster so hard to say if it means much overall. Decent precip totals before the changeover all things considered. As MN said, folks out west could be in for a memorable ice storm. Decent consensus there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hard to tell for sure, but it looks like ~0.75" precip as sleet and ice for Winchester and Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hard to tell for sure, but it looks like ~0.75" precip as sleet and ice for Winchester and Leesburg. Ya I am running like .5"+ ZR by 5am Monday. Oh joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Good run for sure. 850 definitely a noticeable shift N @ 18z sunday compared to 6z run but precip is in faster so hard to say if it means much overall. Decent precip totals before the changeover all things considered. As MN said, folks out west could be in for a memorable ice storm. Decent consensus there for sure. I'll pass on the heavy ice. Of course, I have no choice. Good, bad or otherwise, we all know exact placement of precip can change plenty when you are still more than two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Good run for sure. 850 definitely a noticeable shift N @ 18z sunday compared to 6z run but precip is in faster so hard to say if it means much overall. Decent precip totals before the changeover all things considered. As MN said, folks out west could be in for a memorable ice storm. Decent consensus there for sure. There will still be subtle shifts both with temps and precip each run but no need to panic. Stuff will fall from the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hard to tell for sure, but it looks like ~0.75" precip as sleet and ice for Winchester and Leesburg. It's concerning for sure. Hope we get at least a couple of inches of snow up front. Will make it easier to clean up anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Close to .75 I-95 and west all frozen in some form or another through 2am Monday. Gotta check hi res maps for suface freezing line but it looks like fall line and west is at or below freezing through midnight at least. Areas further west a good bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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