mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 yes...I think WSI and some of the pro services are a smidge faster but they are not priced for us ok, thanks...I'm gunna' go with one of them this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like we are pressing .8 frozen at DCA on 18z GFS and 6" of snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 18Z has a vortex touching MN at 150 hrs and 12Z had it it over Hudsons Bay at the same time this run may even get colder than 12z Time to mass order hand warmers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Time to mass order hand warmers. actually, by 180 hrs it relaxes more than the 12z crazy model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 18Z has a vortex touching MN at 150 hrs and 12Z had it it over Hudsons Bay at the same time this run may even get colder than 12z No -30C 850 contour on the 18z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 2nd wave is like a tenth at best but all snow. Inch or less around the area but not impressive. That's ok though. I'm going to be tired from shoveling 5" with .25 of ice on top. #faithinthef̶l̶a̶k̶e̶s̶ gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 actually, by 180 hrs it relaxes more than the 12z crazy model runs Plenty of middle teens around. For early Dec this is the coldest we've seen for some time if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Can't trend back, huh? Models seem to be struggling. Probably see more and more changes as we get closer. Friday night is intriguing if the gfs is to be believed. I can't remember the thicknesses to look for at the various levels. Anybody know off hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The cold air has shown itself to be formidable for last 30 days. I don't think cold air will be the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The cold air has shown itself to be formidable for last 30 days. I don't think cold air will be the problem. hope so...GFS latest run is solidly in the mid to upper 20s everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The -25C 850's that are showing up by early-mid next week. This far out it's best to reduce that by 40% or to -15C. That's still a quite cold 30 hihg 15-20 low for DCA. I can only make replies now by hitting the "reply" at the top. The one at the bottom does not work, the edit does not work, and the quote and reply does not work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I can only make replies now by hitting the "reply" at the top. The one at the bottom does not work, the edit does not work, and the quote and reply does not work. I heard if you upgrade to AOL 6.0 this is no longer an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I think the smart money is taking a model blend at this point - CMC for temps and GFS for precip is the more responsible way forward until we get into NAM range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 These CAD events always trend colder until we are about 6 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 so the 0Z run will be telling, I guess well its still 5-6 days away so im sure no matter whether its 00z,,,12z,,,18z,,,or 6z, your gonna see a lot of flipflopping, im sure the models will change more than a few times in the nex 5-6 days, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The -25C 850's that are showing up by early-mid next week. This far out it's best to reduce that by 40% or to -15C. That's still a quite cold 30 hihg 15-20 low for DCA. I can only make replies now by hitting the "reply" at the top. The one at the bottom does not work, the edit does not work, and the quote and reply does not work. That seems reasonable....-15 to -20 departure or so...would be nice...biggest issue would be a midnight high screwing it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 That seems reasonable....-15 to -20 departure or so...would be nice...biggest issue would be a midnight high screwing it up if we could only get a storm to come up the coast with air that cold, our luck wed get a storm as the cold air leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 18zdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 if we could only get a storm to come up the coast with air that cold, our luck wed get a storm as the cold air leaves Well, without a block we'll get just exactly that. It's pleasant on this board this year because it's been fully expected to be rough with the storm track. Kinda tempers the pain and put the bar at a very reasonable height. Not all that much as changed with this storm for days now. Yes, models have jumped with varying degrees of good and bad but the same setup exists. Fresh cold hp in a good spot and front end fetch of precip riding into it with a low track to the west. All snow was never on the table or expected. I personally think the trends at h5 were very good today regardless of the op run solutions. There's definitely potential for the high to hold better than the worst case model runs. I still feel like a widespread inch near the cities is better than 50% odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Have a friend named Jacque Le Kiboche' at the ECMWF who gave me a free 0z euro preview. Here is our coldest panel. Blue contour is 32 degrees at surface.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Do those temp outputs come with hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Have a friend named Jacque Le Kiboche' at the ECMWF who gave me a free 0z euro preview. Here is our coldest panel. Blue contour is 32 degrees at surface.... 0zeuro.PNG Leesburg is safe!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Well, without a block we'll get just exactly that. It's pleasant on this board this year because it's been fully expected to be rough with the storm track. Kinda tempers the pain and put the bar at a very reasonable height. Not all that much as changed with this storm for days now. Yes, models have jumped with varying degrees of good and bad but the same setup exists. Fresh cold hp in a good spot and front end fetch of precip riding into it with a low track to the west. All snow was never on the table or expected. I personally think the trends at h5 were very good today regardless of the op run solutions. There's definitely potential for the high to hold better than the worst case model runs. I still feel like a widespread inch near the cities is better than 50% odds. im outside of the city, and I agree with you, theres been many timers when the high kept the cold air coming down, and the temp never rises and a change over to plain rain never happened, im not saying it will happen this time but when you get a strong high to the north and a good CAD situation, u never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 well its still 5-6 days away so im sure no matter whether its 00z,,,12z,,,18z,,,or 6z, your gonna see a lot of flipflopping, im sure the models will change more than a few times in the nex 5-6 days, IMO I was being sarcastic in jest, but that's OK, my wife doesn't get my sarcasm either which keeps it a happy marriage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Do those temp outputs come with hours? do we have to spoon feed the weenies around here now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Leesburg is safe!!! Cutting it close. Looks like 33 and rain IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Too bad ground will still be warm from the 60s on Thursday...thought I might be able to use my new snow blower on a clearing job this weekend to get the ice pellets off teh driveway and sidewalk Maybe next month, although longer days pose a different kind of challenge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Too bad ground will still be warm from the 60s on Thursday...thought I might be able to use my new snow blower on a clearing job this weekend to get the ice pellets off teh driveway and sidewalk Maybe next month, although longer days pose a different kind of challenge Ground temps are a misnomer, rates can always overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I was being sarcastic in jest, but that's OK, my wife doesn't get my sarcasm either which keeps it a happy marriage my wife don't get my sarcasm either lol she doesn't get my obsession with the weather either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The December Storm That Might $^! Us. Either Way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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