Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 it is better than 12z...it is colder...and it gets precip here earlier...12z was basically nothing until afternoon...i think you are in a good spot...you are below freezing by late evening on Saturday....i have snow maps, and this run gets you 4"....and it gets the 2" contour all the way to the bay...at 12z it ran right through DC....these are based on 10:1 ratio....but even at 8:1 you are good for 3"...I am not as concerned with warm ground....sun is dead...it will be mid to upper 20s when it starts...and it will lay right away...this is not the usual mid february 35.6 degrees light snow that does nothing.. It does show a narrow qpf max with the first wave of up to .4 in 6 hours but its south. Due west of fredricksburg. I don't think its worth getting hung up about fine details either. It's plenty cold and there's an initial wave. My wag is it's more widespread and uniform. Maybe not 5" of qpf in 15 minutes but I don't see how the euro is a bad run. I really like speeding up onset. That is key for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 3-4 with lots of ice to follow .. that's not out of the question..let's see what's up with the euro next few runs....It may be too dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Oh...I see...you promised your fans what you may not be able to deliver..."best in years" "The new american gfs model is even wetter and colder. More snow...more ice..and probably power outages if this verifies. A major winter storm....the best in years if it pans out." That is the scariest part of your whole statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It does show a narrow qpf max with the first wave of up to .4 in 6 hours but its south. Due west of fredricksburg. I don't think its worth getting hung up about fine details either. It's plenty cold and there's an initial wave. My wag is it's more widespread and uniform. Maybe not 5" of qpf in 15 minutes but I don't see how the euro is a bad run. I really like speeding up onset. That is key for sure. agreed...to me a better run than 12z overall..waiting until mid afternoon for a thump was dangerous...colder and gets precip in here quicker...thats a good thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Oh...I see...you promised your fans what you may not be able to deliver..."best in years" "The new american gfs model is even wetter and colder. More snow...more ice..and probably power outages if this verifies. A major winter storm....the best in years if it pans out." Lol didn't promise anything lots of ifs in there but the euro dryness has always concerned me. Best in years is not saying much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That is the scariest part of your whole statement. im one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 im one of them Oy vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This storm will be the best in years...since 2011 anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well, for the qpf hounds, it's plenty wet between 2am and 8am monday. Just don't ask about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I also have angst because this is probably our final storm of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well, for the qpf hounds, it's plenty wet between 2am and 8am monday. Just don't ask about temps. Looks like we hit 70 on Monday again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I also have angst because this is probably our final storm of the season One of the problems with having monster highs in great position is the presence of the very dry surface air. Still believe the Euro may be doing a better job of accounting for hours of virga at the beginning of the storm, and thus will be more likely to verify qpf wise. Sucks when you see the radar returns over your house and look outside and see overcast skies. Big strong arctic highs can be snow eaters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 6z NAM coming in pretty dry thus far through 48. It is the 6z NAM but just making a note. As the frames progress further into time, out to 57 now, it looks like it may be more of a timing difference. We'll see shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 nam has a nice qpf band across nova during the day sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 probability of equal to or > 2" by Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 6z runs should be deleted from the model suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looking at track of the low...Wouldn't enough of the column warm to change over to sleet or freezing rain or just plain rain by around midnight Sunday night. Maybe I am reading this wrong... would love for someone to someone to comment who has more experience reading models but Averaging the 12 hour precip output (GFS) for the region for the 12 hour period before midnight for the last four model runs I am seeing maybe 0.25 to 0.5 inches. Wouldn't some of that be wasted while overcoming dry air? I would love for a met to comment because I can't give a forcast... but to me it looks like .15 to .35 over 12 hours. Wouldnt that translate to light snow or flurries for many hours... no accumulation.. just wet ground. Maybe a dusting in the dirt betwen the grass? Similar to what we saw like 10 times last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 6z runs should be deleted from the model suite Both are rather unimpressive to say the least....not sure what to think honestly. I believe if the 12z runs come in similar or worse then we might start to see the writing...Interesting turn and week for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Frozen QPF down by a half on the 06z NAM and by 2/3rds on the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Frozen QPF down by a half on the 06z NAM and by 2/3rds on the 06z GFS. It's gonna get ugly in here...I think I may stay away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Frozen QPF down by a half on the 06z NAM and by 2/3rds on the 06z GFS. Need to see support later on to know if this is a beginning to a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I also have angst because this is probably our final storm of the season These kind of statements are annoying as hell. Nobody on these boards is qualified to make a statement like that. And if you look, you probably can find 50 just like it in the last week alone, by many posters. It's getting old. Fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looks like our area is jackpot for this storm for the entire east coast? Good job Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Frozen QPF down by a half on the 06z NAM and by 2/3rds on the 06z GFS. I'll never forget how a 6z run a couple of days before 2/6/10 was carp and there was panic (could have been the 12/19/09 storm, but it was one of them) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Good job Ji he's missing something in his life; problem is it changes daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looks like 0.25+ frozen on the GFS. Really can't complain about that in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 WPC having breakfast at the waffle house today THERE IS A LOT OF COMPLEXITY WITH THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE EFFECTS OF SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK IMPULSES CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WHICH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT FOR A GIVEN AREA. THEREFORE...A LARGE REGION OF THE NATION WILL BE AFFECTED BY SEVERAL MODES OF WINTER...WHETHER IT BE SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OR A COMBINATION OF SOME OR ALL...THAT MAY CHANGE OVER TIME. ALL OF THESE MECHANISMS AND WHERE THEY OCCUR CANNOT BE DISCUSSED IN A DISCUSSION SUCH AS THIS. THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS AT LEAST PAINTS AN IDEA OF WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. No discussing stuff in a discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 To be fair...6z nam is still .83 frozen for jyo....if true it's still nasty...just not as white as some want I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It seems like the runs have been cyclical, as others have said. Instead of looking at individual runs, it makes sense to me to look at the trends of the cycles. These cycles seem to have trended colder,drier initially but a more drawn out period of precipitation. I hope that I am not stating the obvious just trying not to panic about the 6z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 To be fair...6z nam is still .83 frozen for jyo....if true it's still nasty...just not as white as some want I guess And 6z gfs is roughly .50-.61...depending on changeover time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.