snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Does anyone ever remember a setup like this without a jump to the coast? nmuch different storm and pattern...but 2/25/07...3-6" storm...all snow...996mb lakes cutter....no secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I had a hard time finding an analog...12/23/98 was ok...but not great.. But everyone remembers 2/25/07...all snow from a 996mb lakes cutter...of course the setup was different ...we had a ton of cold air built up...a block and a 50-50...but the HP is in a much better place this time Are you starting to think the front end snow has some legs here? I'm super hesitant to buy in but it's getting tough to find reasons not to. The ice part is probably a lock. We don't do it well in our yards but the usual folks could get .25"+. I'm thinking .1 - .15 worse case near the cities and even then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GGEM delays... so that pretty much nixes the snow chances up here... but its prob ISW criteria I-95 and W... still freezing rain 14z MON at DCA... precip ends as drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 nmuch different storm and pattern...but 2/25/07...3-6" storm...all snow...996mb lakes cutter....no secondary 1/8/99? Front end thump over performed followed by freezing rain to plain rain. Temps skyrocketed overnight with heavy rain, then strong cold front cleared everything out. A couple cold days followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I had a hard time finding an analog...12/23/98 was ok...but not great.. But everyone remembers 2/25/07...all snow from a 996mb lakes cutter...of course the setup was different ...we had a ton of cold air built up...a block and a 50-50...but the HP is in a much better place this time 12/23/98 was also a quick hitter. Pretty much a 4-6 hour event I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That's probably the coolest feature with this setup. It's been there the whole time and has improved as we move closer. 4 days or so ago it was folding like duece 7 off suit and now it's big slick. I don't think we get setups like this often because we don't have arctic highs anchored over PA very often with a se ridge and arctic air intruding into TX. That's unbelievable. My relatives down there just texted me they got 30 degrees with mid 20s dewpoints and some freezing drizzle. This is going to be a VERY interesting winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Are you starting to think the front end snow has some legs here? I'm super hesitant to buy in but it's getting tough to find reasons not to. The ice part is probably a lock. We don't do it well in our yards but the usual folks could get .25"+. I'm thinking .1 - .15 worse case near the cities and even then... I think it has some legs...the high is an absolute beast....we have gotten sick CAD from 1028mb highs before if they are well placed I'm sure we have had similar setups...and they probably dropped 1.8" at DCA and we have no idea about them because they happened in January of 1937 or December of 1954 and it is just a number and they werent K/U's...this could be a fun qualitative event where at the end of the day DCA records 0.8"...I don't really have expectations and it hasn't been that way in a while...I mean truly that way...in the sense where if I get snow and it pings 45 seconds later I will be upset...the pattern is awful...I think the meterology and case study aspect is cool and if I cant get it hopefully folks in the far reaches will get some great frozen and post some pics... On the high end for now, i don't think 2" inside the beltway is unreasonable, though I'd put put the over/under lower..but it isn't a pipe dream.... My thing in terms of forecasting is i am not going to forecast accumulating once 800mb gets warmer than -1. i think that will help expectations...my biggest concern now is dry air and precip shield and where it will set up..that could end up screwing some folks... in the end, I am happier going into this event than the one in March with no HP, no cold air, and that required me to wear SPF50 if I wanted to walk outside and not get burnt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 snow is tellin' it. Do I hear an Amen Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 1/8/99? Front end thump over performed followed by freezing rain to plain rain. Temps skyrocketed overnight with heavy rain, then strong cold front cleared everything out. A couple cold days followed. that low tracked to our west...so in that sense it isnt a bad analog..pattern was different...plus cold air in place well before..but yes...2-4" event that changed over to sleet/zr..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think it has some legs...the high is an absolute beast....we have gotten sick CAD from 1028mb highs before if they are well placed I'm sure we have had similar setups...and they probably dropped 1.8" at DCA and we have no idea about them because they happened in January of 1937 or December of 1954 and it is just a number and they werent K/U's...this could be a fun qualitative event where at the end of the day DCA records 0.8"...I don't really have expectations and it hasn't been that way in a while...I mean truly that way...in the sense where if I get snow and it pings 45 seconds later I will be upset...the pattern is awful...I think the meterology and case study aspect is cool and if I cant get it hopefully folks in the far reaches will get some great frozen and post some pics... On the high end for now, i don't think 2" inside the beltway is unreasonable, though I'd put put the over/under lower..but it isn't a pipe dream.... My thing in terms of forecasting is i am not going to forecast accumulating once 800mb gets warmer than -1. i think that will help expectations...my biggest concern now is dry air and precip shield and where it will set up..that could end up screwing some folks... in the end, I am happier going into this event than the one in March with no HP, no cold air, and that required me to wear SPF50 if I wanted to walk outside and not get burnt... Well put. 2 biggest negatives are how quickly precip overcomes dry air and the actual time before it goes to sleet (not model time. lol). Rates are key to get the column saturating and snow hitting the ground. Our window of snow time has gotten larger. We both agreed a day or 2 ago that 3 hours looked like a fair guess. Now it might be 6 hours best case. Sooo.... if the first 2 hours of that window are wasted getting the column saturated and the solid rates never materialize then we get 4 hours of -sn before pings. 2" is best case in that scenario. I personally don't expect nor do I think you do that we get 4 straight hours of 1" per hour stuff. Nice band or two sets up then maybe... but expecting those kinds of things to happen is precarious. The only way I see the dc eclipsing 2" is if it comes in fast and furious. It could happen but expecting it to has hurt feelings written all over it. Some of the big positives are the fact that it will be below freezing at onset. Snow will stick right away even if the rates are light. Maybe not as easily to streets but who cares about that at this point. Second, the hp is definitely a beast. It's not unreasonable to think the warm nose is delayed a bit. So maybe things hold all snow for longer than we expect. Another big positive is a trend towards having the front end being juicier on the models while the column still supports snow. It's a fun event. Pretty sure you and I see accum snow, some IP, and some ice. At then end of daylight sunday it should look really wintery. No complaining from me even if wxbell snow maps don't verify. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 00z EURO at 48 has 1042 H in S MN... DCA -3/-4 850s temp 72 hrs (00z MON/7PM SUN) 0c 850 line crossing DCA... most of N VA including MRB and IAD and into most of MD N and W of DCA (including BWI) still below zero 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro is drier to the north with the initial wave of precip, Moves in a bit faster but the max stripe is to the south. of dc. ETA: I take that back. Very close to 12z run near the cities. Winwxluvr will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 How far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro is drier to the north with the initial wave of precip, Moves in a bit faster but the max stripe is to the south. of dc. but it is colder and I like that it gets here earlier..but yes...drier run overall....but colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 but it is colder and I like that it gets here earlier..but yes...drier run overall....but colder I think I was splitting hairs for the most part. Kinda the same overall just a bit quicker. And colder. It's a good run though. I wasn't being negative with my first post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is this our new concern ...initial wave is going to miss us to out south....if that happens...I'm done with weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is this our new concern ...initial wave is going to miss us to out south....if that happens...I'm done with weather it has been a concern for a while...the only "lock" with this event is cold...it is going to be cold and for a long time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is this our new concern ...initial wave is going to miss us to out south....if that happens...I'm done with weather It doesn't miss us though. We still do fine within reason. It's right in line with other guidance as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro has been dry for days...it's going to be right again right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Entire area west of 95 is below freezing at the surface until 2am monday it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Don't know...euro is a horrible run imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 .40 QPF in 18 hours is bullshiit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 .40 QPF in 18 hours is bullshiit Seems like lots of snow out west for Saturday morning from the wundermap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not sure what euro u guys are looking at but mine gives me ,40 QPF in the first 18 hours of storm when it's actually cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro has been dry for days...it's going to be right again right? it is better than 12z...it is colder...and it gets precip here earlier...12z was basically nothing until afternoon...i think you are in a good spot...you are below freezing by late evening on Saturday....i have snow maps, and this run gets you 4"....and it gets the 2" contour all the way to the bay...at 12z it ran right through DC....these are based on 10:1 ratio....but even at 8:1 you are good for 3"...I am not as concerned with warm ground....sun is dead...it will be mid to upper 20s when it starts...and it will lay right away...this is not the usual mid february 35.6 degrees light snow that does nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Man it, it has in fact shifted a bit to suppression versus percip. type. 30.50" high over northern PA controls the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not sure what euro u guys are looking at but mine gives me ,40 QPF in the first 18 hours of storm when it's actually cold what were you hoping for? 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Gfs gives us more than double frozen liquid as euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 what were you hoping for? 8-12" 3-4 with lots of ice to follow .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not sure what euro u guys are looking at but mine gives me ,40 QPF in the first 18 hours of storm when it's actually cold what were you hoping for? 8-12" Oh...I see...you promised your fans what you may not be able to deliver..."best in years" "The new american gfs model is even wetter and colder. More snow...more ice..and probably power outages if this verifies. A major winter storm....the best in years if it pans out." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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