Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Brutal as in I'm out? Verbatim you still get 2-3" but it's a crazy cutoff on this run with the front end snow. Many changes on the northern extent I'm sure. I wouldn't take this run and worry much to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 do it!!! 21z near DC. lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 I wonder if CWG will continue to be soft re: ice for the dc proper area now. As modeled, even the city could be in for a prolonged period of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Huge run. I'm tempted to weenie a little. This kills the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sounds like the Canadian...coastal transfer...oy Hush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 in....but not by much OK, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 GGEM FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Brutal as in I'm out? You are fine. Looks similar to other fringe scenarios that end up being OK up to the Mason-Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sounds like my type of storm. Snow and ice at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Verbatim you still get 2-3" but it's a crazy cutoff on this run with the front end snow. Many changes on the northern extent I'm sure. I wouldn't take this run and worry much to be honest. heck, I wasn't even expecting THAT much yesterday, so no complaints here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I wonder if CWG will continue to be soft re: ice for the dc proper area now. As modeled, even the city could be in for a prolonged period of ice. 30% chance of ice 30% chance of no ice 30% chance of some ice 10% chance of more ice than less ice, give or take some ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is probably the most important panel for snow lovers. This is a 6hr precip w/ 850's from 12-18z sunday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 trailing wave is there, but probably .1-.15 or so next run she'll be back better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 30% chance of ice 30% chance of no ice 30% chance of some ice 10% chance of more ice than less ice, give or take some ice I lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is probably the most important panel for snow lovers. This is a 6hr precip w/ 850's from 12-18z sunday: gfs0z6hr.JPG dag, just like the NAM....the heaviest stuff touching mby, albeit barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Really this is a great event to observe. Cold air justs stays unless it's moved. How strong low to west, or east? How cold is the cold air post sunset Sat? These fronts snap like a rubber band sometime. Go from 29 and freezing rain to 34 in 30 minutes. Good stuff for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 To echo what others have said I doubt the models are gonna nail any sharp cutoffs or bullseye at this range. Time to hit the hay a await my 6:30 am euro check in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Say what you want about CAD but the high was initially scheduled to move east quicker. It's basically still parked late in the day now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 30% chance of ice 30% chance of no ice 30% chance of some ice 10% chance of more ice than less ice, give or take some ice Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Say what you want about CAD but the high was initially scheduled to move east quicker. It's basically still parked late in the day now. Look @ h5. The high can't retreat. First of all, it's a beast and there the ull north of the maritimes and confluence south of it just kinda lock it in at the right time. The only quick exit would be due east. Doesn't work that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Does anyone ever remember a setup like this without a jump to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Does anyone ever remember a setup like this without a jump to the coast? I don't remember a setup like this ever. I didn't come down with the sickness until 06. This is a big learning experience for me. There's a weak vort/clipper incoming @ 150 on the gfs. Worth watching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Just thumbed back through the last 12 runs or so and there is definitely a stronger and more southern HP placement. The precip cutoff has also come down also, if it continues Balt/Fredrick/I-70 corridor is in the firing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Does anyone ever remember a setup like this without a jump to the coast? There's a lame1020mb low along the coast. 1/18/94 1/15/99 had almost no coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 There's a lame1020mb low along the coast. 1/18/94 1/15/99 had almost no coastal. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 There's a lame1020mb low along the coast. 1/18/94 1/15/99 had almost no coastal. Neither of them had a huge HP, both of those were digging trough setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GGEM is still suppressed. I like that, of course but tend to think it just a sucky model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yeah. I was just looking at the 500 maps for 1994. Way different. Would like to do some research on a previous storm with this setup but I cant think of or find one. At least not without a coastal popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Neither of them had a huge HP, both of those were digging trough setups. That's probably the coolest feature with this setup. It's been there the whole time and has improved as we move closer. 4 days or so ago it was folding like duece 7 off suit and now it's big slick. I don't think we get setups like this often because we don't have arctic highs anchored over PA very often with a se ridge and arctic air intruding into TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I don't remember a setup like this ever. I didn't come down with the sickness until 06. This is a big learning experience for me. There's a weak vort/clipper incoming @ 150 on the gfs. Worth watching... I had a hard time finding an analog...12/23/98 was ok...but not great.. But everyone remembers 2/25/07...all snow from a 996mb lakes cutter...of course the setup was different ...we had a ton of cold air built up...a block and a 50-50...but the HP is in a much better place this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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