Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 does any other model besides the gfs have the storm for teusday? Yes, but it's not really storm. Just another impulse riding the boundary. Basically #3 and the final one. It's awful narrow and not very moisture laden. My wag is conversational to maybe and inch if we're lucky but much can change. Could be more or could end up being too far east and give us nothing. Just another feature to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 well its the 18z gfs, kinda known as the off_model time . IMO Hush, it's happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yes, but it's not really storm. Just another impulse riding the boundary. Basically #3 and the final one. It's awful narrow and not very moisture laden. My wag is conversational to maybe and inch if we're lucky but much can change. Could be more or could end up being too far east and give us nothing. Just another feature to keep an eye on. ahh ok ty, I noticed the euro has it too, def something to keep an eye on, still 5-6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hush, it's happy hour. oops my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 why not gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_63.png nicee.. that must include the teusday and Wednesday event( if it happens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 why not gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_63.png I'll be one happy weenie if it even gets close to that (I'm assuming it includes Tuesday as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 nicee.. that must include the teusday and Wednesday event( if it happens) yeah this is the first event alone.. need to request blocks so they can be separated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 why not Bullseye moved from Winchester to Big Meadows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 yeah this is the first event alone.. need to request blocks so they can be separated gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_35.png Perhaps WPC was right with its 10% chance of 4"+ over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Perhaps WPC was right with its 10% chance of 4"+ over us "at least" (as someone else pointed out). probabilities are confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 ahh ok ty, I noticed the euro has it too, def something to keep an eye on, still 5-6 days outKeep in mind there's been no indication of surface reflection or substantial vorticity associated with it. Just a strong pull of moisture from the gulf along the boundary. If signs of a weak surface low pop up then it could get much more interesting.We should keep disco in the other thread though. My bad mods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 "at least" (as someone else pointed out). probabilities are confusing. 10-40% I think a good rule of thumb is that when you're in blue, then they feel that 1-3/2-4" is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 10-40% 39 I think but who's counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 RE: yoda and the GFS ensembles. We're less than 3 days out, so I'd stop paying much attention to the GEFS for this storm. I looked at them briefly for 12z, which is borderline as it was for 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm comfortable with the 30% chance at 0.9/1.0 that the potential is there for a possible 4"-8" in Anne Arundel County. But only a possibility at this point. Will need to wait for the next model run, but 4-8 would be a real doozie. But only if it happens. Remember this one. I will not post again for another year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Perhaps WPC was right with its 10% chance of 4"+ over us im hoping;) but with it being only dec 5th, id settle for 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is similar to one of the late winter loose cannon setups where you essentially have a warm front with bursts of precip and lulls. If we get one of those bursts before the warm air moves in snow totals will be a lot higher than if we are in a lull during the time the atmosphere supports snow. Thump snows can easily produce 5" in 6 hrs if temps are cold enough. I can see this going either way. As for the ZR, I am starting to have some concerns, especially for the western half of MD and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Thanks WxUSAF I am wondering if/when GGEM will blink. Granted, its a crappy model at times, but it really hasn't changed in the past 4 runs at least now with the major icestorm threat along and west of I-95. Plus, I am not sure the last time the Canadian led the model pack around here in a right solution. Also, should be interesting to see if the 00z NAM/GFS continue the 18z idea of colder and wetter. I hope that 18z happy hour runs can carry over into a 00z nightcap of joy. And just for mitch, I will post the 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Thanks WxUSAF I am wondering if/when GGEM will blink. Granted, its a crappy model at times, but it really hasn't changed in the past 4 runs at least now with the major icestorm threat along and west of I-95. Plus, I am not sure the last time the Canadian led the model pack around here in a right solution. Also, should be interesting to see if the 00z NAM/GFS continue the 18z idea of colder and wetter. I hope that 18z happy hour runs can carry over into a 00z nightcap of joy. And just for mitch, I will post the 21z SREF I'll do it for you Yoda. They look to be a tad wetter, maybe a touch faster, about the same on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I was just looking at a bunch of discussions from the NWS, and most say there is a lot of uncertainty, even only 3 days away, gonna be a lot of needle and threading with this, this will be a far from perfect forcast, any time you deal with a CAD system, models are almost always off in timing when it comes to any kind of change over whether sooner or later, IMO we really aren't gonna know for sure whos gonna get what till this thing is either on top of us or actually precipitating, just my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM at 51 looks to be as cold--just waiting on precip to fire up. h85 0c has sagged WELL into NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM at 51 looks to be as cold--just waiting on precip to fire up. h85 0c has sagged WELL into NC Remarkable consistency so far compared to 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Remarkable consistency so far compared to 18Z. just as dry through 6z on 12/8 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hr. 66 is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hr. 66 is money. don't you dare....don't you dare do that to Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hr. 66 is money. Indeed, very nice 0.25+ stripe through N VA and DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Indeed, very nice 0.25+ stripe through N VA and DCA more after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Over to sleet at DCA by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 DCA probably pinging hr 69... snow still at IAD, but barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.