WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Mitchnick storm I thought it was the "Chill Storm Sequel". Does that one belong to Mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 2 pt. conversion after the touchdown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Dang, nice Tuesday storm as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 There is nothing anybody can do to convince me (dtk included) that the 18z gfs doesn't have some code written deep in the program that always enhances snow in the MA. It's plain as day every year. I'll stick with the 12z euro/gfs combo. 1-2 cities and immediate west burbs with some sleet on top and .15 glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I must say, I;m surprised by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I must say, I;m surprised by the GFS. In what manner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 There is nothing anybody can do to convince me (dtk included) that the 18z gfs doesn't have some code written deep in the program that always enhances snow in the MA. It's plain as day every year. I'll stick with the 12z euro/gfs combo. 1-2 cities and immediate west burbs with some sleet on top and .15 glaze. none of us are convinced...even Wes has commented on it over the years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Wednesday into Thursday is going be frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 had some din-din and came back to the trailing wave snow sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 none of us are convinced...even Wes has commented on it over the years... the 18z gfs is whack no matter what the stupid nh 500mb chart lines say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 none of us are convinced...even Wes has commented on it over the years... Actually in terms of verification, I don't think there is much difference from one 6 hr period to the other. That said, this run is one of iteration of possible solutions and this far in advance, may again change. I worry abut cases when the upper support is so far to the west. I've seen it fail before but also can remember a few 4 inch events with the low going so far west. Certainly the slow development of the low towards the Oh Valley is helping hold in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 had some din-din and came back to the trailing wave snow sweet! Early bird special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Actually in terms of verification, I don't think there is much difference from one 6 hr period to the other. That said, this run is one of iteration of possible solutions and this far in advance, may again change. I worry abut cases when the upper support is so far to the west. I've seen it fail before but also can remember a few 4 inch events with the low going so far west. Certainly the slow development of the low towards the Oh Valley is helping hold in the cold air. I understand and don't really believe it's "programmed" differently. But it's either an inexplicable recurring coincidence or there really is something to it. Time and time again it comes in as the wettest and snowiest op run of the day. Even when trends are reversing it seems to never fail. At least for the MA region. I don't pay attention much to other areas. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 While the 18z GFS is nice and probably on the high side of guidance envelope, I think we're as locked in as we can be this far out..as others have said similarly, I expect an inch or so in the metros followed by .1 or so of ice mainly on those tree branches and other cold surfaces...Id take that as a first winter storm, maybe Tuesday throws us a bone...This winter certainly appears it will be more active than the last 2 though, and that we can take hope in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Stating the obvious CAD is a bear to forecast even if there were 10 more global models. There can be such a difference over a few miles. I live in W PWC. For the pre Thanksgiving rain event I stay locked in between 35-36...my buddy in Woodbridge was mid 40s for a long time just 20 miles to my SE. I think DC hit 50 that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 18z was a really good run for DCA,...and probably overdone..2nd wave on there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 IAD on 18z GFS has .57 with surface and 850 firmly below 0. So, 3-6 suggested by the run before frz rain and then rain. Feel good about firing up the snow blower for its inaugural run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 There must be some pretty big ensemble members skewing the mean at 72 and 84... at 72 (18z SUN) ensemble mean has DCA -3c 850s and 0.25 QPF... by 06z QPF is 0.6 right by DCA but +6c 850s so that is likely rain at DCA but I assume FZRN is close by somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 IAD on 18z GFS has .57 with surface and 850 firmly below 0. So, 3-6 suggested by the run before frz rain and then rain. Feel good about firing up the snow blower for its inaugural run. Is that frozen just frz rain??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 There must be some pretty big ensemble members skewing the mean at 72 and 84 Would you mind posting? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 There must be some pretty big ensemble members skewing the mean at 72 and 84 Actually no. They are pretty much in line with the op. I do remember someone saying there are more members that we don't see??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Actually no. They are pretty much in line with the op. I do remember someone saying there are more members that we don't see??? I think Wes said that there were 20 while Yoda only posted 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The solutions are quite varied for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Feel good about firing up the snow blower for its inaugural run. You mean centennial? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think Wes said that there were 20 while Yoda only posted 11. Yeah I only know how to find 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 18Z GFS says hell i'm all in weenie mode. 2nd wave crushes us at 120hr. does any other model besides the gfs have the storm for teusday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 You mean centennial? First time for this one. I'd offer to bring it over you way, but if IIRC you live in a multi-tenant building with no discrete ownership of sidewalk or parking areas? Or I could be thinking of someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Is that frozen just frz rain??? We'll know for sure on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm not sure but the 18z gfs looks overdone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm not sure but the 18z gfs looks overdone... well its the 18z gfs, kinda known as the off_model time . IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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