Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 front end, Wunderground snow maps have DCA/BWI in 1"+ and another panel where we're close to another 1", so at this range 1-3" of snow/sleet is probably a decent guess for those cities and surrounding burbs, with 2-4" for western & Northern ones....subject to change as we get closer how much snow qpf on the trailing wave? Somewhere between .1 - .15 on the tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I don't pay for Allan's site, so I can't tell. Just eyeballing off Ewall. Ah okies. I was just wondering if low outlier meant like it was way off the mean, or it was close but just on the lower side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's not unusual but a lot of this will be in the moment. If that western low stays weak and snugs up along the western side of applchns with slow movement then there will be nothing to scour out the cold air and we get considerable freezing rain. If it tries to transfer to a coastal then more easterly winds will scour out the cold air and we do not get a serious icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 We're a bit on the edge of where ensembles have utility over the Op runs (at least for the the GEFS vs. GFS), but the GFS Op is a low outlier on precip totals relative to the GEFS. Nearly all have the tail-end/mitchnik storm in one fashion or another. Yeah, I agree with you. Looks like most are wetter and slightly faster than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 CWG's map seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 CWG's map seems reasonable I def agree with that... I wonder how the icing one will look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 CWG's map seems reasonable Northern Baltimore and NW Harford counties should be included in the light red area, imo. Other than that, it seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The SREF's don't necessarily look drier to me as much as they look slower. Just a quick glance. Maybe someone else will have a different interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I made the base map. Go me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's a good map. Should be more bendy at the top though. Terrain and local climo and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The SREF's don't necessarily look drier to me as much as they look slower. Just a quick glance. Maybe someone else will have a different interpretation. I'm not sure they are slow...they look pretty similar to the other guidance today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NAM is out to 9...should be in range about 9pm tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The SREF's don't necessarily look drier to me as much as they look slower. Just a quick glance. Maybe someone else will have a different interpretation. Looking at the Sref's this far out is a recipe for disaster, plus they were horrible last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJH034 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Northern Baltimore and NW Harford counties should be included in the light red area, imo. Other than that, it seems reasonable. Agreed. Once you get north of Sparks in Baltimore County and north of Bel Air in Harford County it's all pretty much 400' or higher so they always tend to do better then the rest of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Northern Baltimore and NW Harford counties should be included in the light red area, imo. Other than that, it seems reasonable. Agreed. Once you get north of Sparks in Baltimore County and north of Bel Air in Harford County it's all pretty much 400' or higher so they always tend to do better then the rest of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah...CWG should account for every aspect of local geography and make a map that reflects that. Amateurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 CWG's map seems reasonable I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NAM is out to 9...should be in range about 9pm tonight 18z is already wetter, colder, cleaner and brighter....now, when do I get my free box of Tide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah...CWG should account for every aspect of local geography and make a map that reflects that. Amateurs. in places where virtually nobody lives (like wnwxluvrs area) it's not as important. But the west burbs of the cities are important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah...CWG should account for every aspect of local geography and make a map that reflects that. Amateurs. Yeah, they pretty much should since they forecast for such a small area. Actual amateurs here do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I like it. Of course you do, the 45% 1" line runs right to the right of your nipple . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Look at the Sref's this far out is a recipe for disaster, plus they were horrible last winter. Yep. Hard to remember that we are still 3 days out on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 OT, but I think maps with probabilities are not very useful. Not sure how a layperson should read that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah, they pretty much should since they forecast for such a small area. Actual amateurs here do so. It is a broad brush map from 3 days out....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 OT, but I think maps with probabilities are not very useful. Not sure how a layperson should read that map. I think it is pretty simple for anyone...though maybe take out the 4" for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 CWG is mostly DC-focused so I don't expect them to be that specific about every geographical feature in northern MD, but if they were that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 CWG is mostly DC-focused so I don't expect them to be that specific about every geographical feature in northern MD, but if they were that would be nice. so far it is only people from northern MD whining because they don't like that a map from 3 days out doesn't give them enough snow...hilarious...You are probably the same people who b**ch if a contour runs 1mm west of your backyard as if that matters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 CWG is mostly DC-focused so I don't expect them to be that specific about every geographical feature in northern MD, but if they were that would be nice. We need the BWG so we can criticize them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think it is pretty simple for anyone...though maybe take out the 4" for now.. I probably would have held off on 4 as I think for us the odds are really really low. The Euro doesn't look like it gives us much more than an inch or so if I'm reading it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 so far it is only people from northern MD whining because they don't like that a map from 3 days out doesn't give them enough snow...hilarious...You are probably the same people who b**ch if a contour runs 1mm west of your backyard as if that matters.... Bazinga!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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