Quasievil Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As inconsequential as it seems, the couple 100 feet of extra elevation west of 95 makes a big difference with these setups. ETA: this map shows it well. East of purple will almost always get less zr with CAD. fallline.JPG I agree. I don't think it's inconsequential at all. It's a big factor here, as are the SE winds that wxmeddler mentioned. I'm glad you showed that map so others can see situations where CAD isn't always enough. Anyway, I'm probably just griping after 3 years of nothing. TWSS - I'll just take an inch and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Usually we underperform out here in the valley of FDK (except the larger coastal storms), but we do, generally, quite well in CAD events. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Usually we underperform out here in the valley of FDK (except the larger coastal storms), but we do, generally, quite well in CAD events. We'll see. You guys have unusual local features. Parr's steals from your coastals and the catoctins steal from your clippers. But that nice little bowl between parrs and the catoctins is money for CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 when will the doctor be in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 when will the doctor be in? out to 54. first wave is wet... .70'ish for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 out to 54. first wave is wet... .70'ish for most. robbery I say, robbery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 robbery I say, robbery I never paid much attention to it. not sure if it's more or less than earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Not bad...gets 0.25" or so as snow/sleet...I think the big story is the CAD which is a virtual lock...everything else is kind of a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I never paid much attention to it. not sure if it's more or less than earlier runs. not that common for us to get back to back high qpf events of late so I wonder/unnecessarily worry about the 1st taking from the 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Not bad...gets 0.25" or so as snow/sleet...I think the big story is the CAD which is a virtual lock...everything else is kind of a bonus EUro's been pretty consistent with that type of qpf so the other models have just come more in line with it; though the exact details have plenty of time to work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NW of 95 gets hammered on euro with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 euro is dried compared to last night on the nw edge of the front end but it's still a good run. no giant flags. Silly nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 You guys have unusual local features. Parr's steals from your coastals and the catoctins steal from your clippers. But that nice little bowl between parrs and the catoctins is money for CAD. Although its been a while, we generally do quite well in the big Noreasters, too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 euro is dried compared to last night on the nw edge of the front end but it's still a good run. no giant flags. Silly nam. be nice if it had the back end wave; anything that fell from that would stick around a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 euro is dried compared to last night on the nw edge of the front end but it's still a good run. no giant flags. Silly nam. Euro was quite a bit drier than the GFS even at 0z last night, so that was a pretty obvious flag for the GFS being too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro was quite a bit drier than the GFS even at 0z last night, so that was a pretty obvious flag for the GFS being too wet. I think we all knew the wet outliers were only fun to look at. Like hot chicks at a bar. Fun to look at but rarely end up in your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think we all knew the wet outliers were only fun to look at. Like hot chicks at a bar. Fun to look at but rarely end up in your house. The least skilled aspect of models is qpf...I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think we all knew the wet outliers were only fun to look at. Like hot chicks at a bar. Fun to look at but rarely end up in your house. yeah, you wouldn't want your kids to see them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This is DCA 12z GFS..based on it and the Euro, I'd probably be comfortable forecasting around an inch of snow for DC followed by by 2 hours or so of sleet to minor icing to rain...fun event..I'm not sure we would get dendrites..probably some pellets mixing in here and there before pure sleet EDIT - Mitchnick's follow up event actually looks decent lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The least skilled aspect of models is qpf...I think? With op runs it's tough I think. Especially at longer leads. It's awful complicated mathmatically. Finding a fair range is the best way to go. Much like what Wes does. Takes a look at all reliable guidance and trends and then makes an educated guess in between somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This is DCA 12z GFS..based on it and the Euro, I'd probably be comfortable forecasting around an inch of snow for DC followed by by 2 hours or so of sleet to minor icing to rain...fun event EDIT - Mitchnick's follow up event actually looks decent lol Very fun event indeed. Great start to the season with tracking. The mitchnick wave is possible. it's not just a frontal passage. There's a weak distubance in ul flow adding some dynamics with moisture available. Icing on the cake I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Very fun event indeed. Great start to the season with tracking. The mitchnick wave is possible. it's not just a frontal passage. There's a weak distubance in ul flow adding some dynamics with moisture available. Icing on the cake I suppose. I think the risk is always there that by the time we get saturated enough for more than flurries or very light -sn, we post "Yay it's starting to snow hard!!" and we flip to sleet 8 minutes later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think the risk is always there that by the time we get saturated enough for more than flurries or very light -sn, we post "Yay it's starting to snow hard!!" and we flip to sleet 8 minutes later Yea, lol. Literal icing on the cake. It's conversation worthy but impact will be nonexistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Check out the shortwave down in the southwest at 144 hours on the EURO with a 1044mb high pressure in perfect position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 We're a bit on the edge of where ensembles have utility over the Op runs (at least for the the GEFS vs. GFS), but the GFS Op is a low outlier on precip totals relative to the GEFS. Nearly all have the tail-end/mitchnik storm in one fashion or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Very fun event indeed. Great start to the season with tracking. The mitchnick wave is possible. it's not just a frontal passage. There's a weak distubance in ul flow adding some dynamics with moisture available. Icing on the cake I suppose. It's like eating crabs (except crabs are better)...all the work for such a small yield....we look back and DCA will have recorded a 0.3"..another event with an insane time invested:result ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 We're a bit on the edge of where ensembles have utility over the Op runs (at least for the the GEFS vs. GFS), but the GFS Op is a low outlier on precip totals relative to the GEFS. Nearly all have the tail-end/mitchnik storm in one fashion or another. Like low outlier as in OP is 0.4 and GEFS is 0.6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's like getting crabs (except crabs are better)...all the work for such a small yield....we look back and DCA will have recorded a 0.3"..another event with an insane time invested:result ratio. Lots of jumping going on...given the relative snow drought, anything should be embraced by snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Like low outlier as in OP is 0.4 and GEFS is 0.6? I don't pay for Allan's site, so I can't tell. Just eyeballing off Ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 front end, Wunderground snow maps have DCA/BWI in 2-1"+ and another panel where we're close to another 1", so at this range 1-3" of snow/sleet is probably a decent guess for those cities and surrounding burbs, with 2-4" for western & Northern ones....subject to change as we get closer how much snow qpf on the trailing wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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