Fozz Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Currently Lancaster, PA. What should I be expecting there? Ask wxmeddler, especially if you're at MU... he knows the area very very well. Also, check the upstate NY/PA forum since that covers south central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What is interesting is that the GGEM,-- use to always be the warmest is now the coldest for this event. It is not as dry as the GFS/NAM. I think south of 64 west of 15 is safe from a huge ice event from QPF alone-- if .5 to .75 falls, that's not your ice accrual number. What do you mean by this? You think the QPF is too low for a major icing event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 WHATS THE ANALYSIS FOR LOUDOUN / FAIRFAX (STERLING/ RESTON AREA) ON THIS NEW GFS. ? this is not a great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What do you mean by this? You think the QPF is too low for a major icing event? Yes. if we get .6 < i'd be half falls as sleet and .3 falls as zr. if .3 falls, .3 wont be the actual build up. Now, this is more along 460 area-- I know it's a bit beefier up towards CHO . I think 81, Staunton to Winchester is ground zero for a significant event. I think the event will be notable along 460, but not major power outages, etc. Of course, watch the date trend away from what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Guys, let's cool it with the "How much for/how does my area look" type posts, especially if you're in the wrong forum. Take these type of posts to the banter thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yes. if we get .6 < i'd be half falls as sleet and .3 falls as zr. if .3 falls, .3 wont be the actual build up. Now, this is more along 460 area-- I know it's a bit beefier up towards CHO . I think 81, Staunton to Winchester is ground zero for a significant event. I think the event will be notable along 460, but not major power outages, etc. Of course, watch the date trend away from what I think. Gotcha. We are really right on the edge of the dry slot here. Given the resolution of the models, this could go either way. But man, we are both really cold at the sfc for almost all the precip. Looks like we stay in the 20s in CVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 12z GFS is a serious icing threat for western MD, Central and western VA and Southern PA, eastern WV. Hour 90 has the 850 freezing line near Buffalo and the surface freezing line lagging all the way to the VA/NC border. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS is a very nasty ice storm out here. 2M temps stay well below freezing until 12Z Monday. The entire event is frozen out here. But it takes away a large majority of the front end snow. Concerning run for the power grid in the entire northern Shenandoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thanks!! nice signature. think there may be an ice storm west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 nice signature. think there may be an ice storm west. West DC looks like ground zero for this ice storm, make sure you have flashlights and batteries handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well at least 12z GGEM still has snow breaking out in S VA at hr 74.... its snowing in RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well at least 12z GGEM still has snow breaking out in S VA at hr 74.... its snowing in RIC be sure to let Matt know what it shows for SPA and NJ....he's developed an odd attraction to that area's weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 West DC looks like ground zero for this ice storm, make sure you have flashlights and batteries handy. What is West DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thanks!! I'm not sure I would not have prepared unless he posted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Ice ice baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GGEM is a HUGE ice storm I-95 and west Still freezing rain 12z MON in DCA proper... changes to rain around 15z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GGEM is dang cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GGEM is a HUGE ice storm I-95 and west Yea but the ggem also uses an atari 2600 processor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GGEM is a HUGE ice storm I-95 and west thanks yoda not a fan of that verglas.. scary stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What is West DC it's the new part of DC, just north of southwest and south of northwest lol j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yea but the ggem also uses an atari 2600 processor I can't wait for square verglas to fall from the sky. it'll be like tetris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GGEM is a HUGE ice storm I-95 and west Still freezing rain 12z MON in DCA proper... changes to rain around 15z MON RIC and EZF take a beating on the GGEM. Freezing line like at Williamsburg at 96. CAD on the necks of VA, don't see that often...well ever really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 thanks yoda not a fan of that verglas.. scary stuff Just doing my designated duty But yeah, GGEM has been banging the ice storm drum for quite a while its past few runs... been very steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Just doing my designated duty But yeah, GGEM has been banging the ice storm drum for quite a while its past few runs... been very steady Now all we need it to do is spin the storm up to a cat 5 hurricane and it'll have covered all the GGEM bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'd take the GGEM in a heart beat-- it's like 3-6 inches down here before change over. It has been the coldest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I remember the GGEM was consistently showing rain for that March "snowstorm" last year that everyone busted on and it was right. Maybe it's right here too. We will see. But trends lately have also been to delay the onset of precip in DC and a bit drier earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What was the saying..........a storm delayed........? The slower drier trend isn't what we wanted, but this is still 72 hours in the future. Be kinda cool if the Euro came along and saved the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z GFS bufkit soundings showing 0.81" ZR at KCHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As someone sitting on the right side of the RN/SN line, it's hard to not see the continuing trend over the past year of the line splitting Baltimore County and running down 295 and up and around DC. That's just based on looking at the Canadian, of course, but it holds course to how things have played out. From my side of the aisle, it bares watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As someone sitting on the right side of the RN/SN line, it's hard to not see the continuing trend over the past year of the line splitting Baltimore County and running down 295 and up and around DC. That's just based on looking at the Canadian, of course, but it holds course to how things have played out. From my side of the aisle, it bares watching. As inconsequential as it seems, the couple 100 feet of extra elevation west of 95 makes a big difference with these setups. ETA: this map shows it well. East of purple will almost always get less zr with CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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