Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 850 down by ric and snowing decently @ 18z sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS delivers the goods. Wow. The high is really locked in right over us. problem is there is no real precip still not a bad run...cold...but dry air is going to be a factor...hopefully our thump doesnt come too late...it keeps getting pushed back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Gosh must be nice to be way ahead of ncep tssn Use instantweathermaps.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Is VA getting shafted like the nam or does it look decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 850 0c line crosses DCA 00z MON (7pm SUN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 problem is there is no real precip .25"+ as snow seems fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS cold but DRY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Dry trend is concerning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Ice moves in overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Is VA getting shafted like the nam or does it look decent Unfortunately, yes it looks like ROA is right in the middle of the dry slot on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Northern VA and western MD get iced over pretty good. Still below 32 at 9Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 .25"+ as snow seems fine to me. you have to remember you live near the PA border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Dry trend is concerning... it's getting washed away either way if this helps with the tail end wave, I'm all for it if not, better luck next time hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 problem is there is no real precip still not a bad run...cold...but dry air is going to be a factor...hopefully our thump doesnt come too late...it keeps getting pushed back I don't think the GFS was a good shift. The later the thump the worse out chances. It's a better run than the NAM. It's forecast now is more in line with a typical lakes cutter with CAD. Still may not be right but probalby closer to truth than the 06Z version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Front end thump looks much weaker down here, but the main ice event looks better on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 it's getting washed away either way if this helps with the tail end wave, I'm all for it if not, better luck next time hopefully I'm not sure how this well help with any tail end wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I am confused. Do these trends increase or decrease the chances of significant icing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 I don't think the GFS was a good shift. The later the thump the worse out chances. It's a better run than the NAM. It's forecast now is more in line with a typical lakes cutter with CAD. Still may not be right but probalby closer to truth than the 06Z version. Could be in for more ice than snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm not sure how this well help with any tail end wave? idk either, just hoping maybe it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I don't think the GFS was a good shift. The later the thump the worse out chances. It's a better run than the NAM. It's forecast now is more in line with a typical lakes cutter with CAD. Still may not be right but probalby closer to truth than the 06Z version. Me and you both get our 1", maybe more...which is good enough for me and probably more realistic...I do like that the cold air stays entrenched, so even when we go above 32, we stay in the 30s, maybe low 40s at some point, so we never really warm before the nest cold shot..better chance of some mangles lump of snow sticking around on the grass somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I am confused. Do these trends increase or decrease the chances of significant icing? depends where you live... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 depends where you live... Currently Lancaster, PA. What should I be expecting there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Any chance someone can put out a total qpf map for the sat night thru mom timeframe would be much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Tuesday has late morning snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Any chance someone can put out a total qpf map for the sat night thru mom timeframe would be much appreciated http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Currently Lancaster, PA. What should I be expecting there? I don't know...it is well into PA...the PA forum might have a better idea...I don't forecast for PA...I don't know your are as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thank you mapgirl appreciate it I was looking right past it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What is interesting is that the GGEM,-- use to always be the warmest is now the coldest for this event. It is not as dry as the GFS/NAM. I think south of 64 west of 15 is safe from a huge ice event from QPF alone-- if .5 to .75 falls, that's not your ice accrual number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thankfully it doesn't look to be too windy during the icing hours. This run prints out over .50" ZR for central VA on up into southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Any chance someone can put out a total qpf map for the sat night thru mom timeframe would be much appreciated This is thru Hour 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.