yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That shows .75 by 84. seems like that is what most models were saying would fall by then. 24 hr QPF (from hr 60 to 84) is paltry. 0.1 to 0.15 at BWI... ~0.25 at IAD, ~0.30 at DCA. EZF is around 0.5. MRB is around 0.25. All of it is frozen FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Mm are confusing American please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That shows .75 by 84. seems like that is what most models were saying would fall by then.That includes the preceding rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That shows .75 by 84. seems like that is what most models were saying would fall by then. Most of that is the rain today into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I stand corrected. But it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 24 hr QPF (from hr 60 to 84) is paltry. 0.1 to 0.15 at BWI... ~0.25 at IAD, ~0.30 at DCA. All of it is frozen FWIW I thought I looked and by 21Z the 850 temp was above freezing on the NAM at DCA. To me it looked like those old fashion disappointment storms since the precip does not come in with the vigor of last night's GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NAM just seems to turn it into a warm front and w/o any slp, the lift is gone for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I thought I looked and by 21Z the 850 temp was above freezing on the NAM at DCA. To me it looked like those old fashion disappointment storms since the precip does not come in with the vigor of last night's GFS. That's why I said "frozen" Its the gamut of snow/sleet/freezing rain... just no rain at all on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 HM pretty much is right on. For us to get a decent snow we need strong uvv and a thump on the front end. The dry air has to be overcome to do that which can happen but is why we have so few decent snows with the low tracking to our west. It's harder to get the good mid level frontogenesis with such poor upper level support. It's gonna be a tricky forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The CAD modeling trends will do what they always do. The only thing that matters is getting that right timing of factors for lift: mid level frontogen, isentropic lift, diff. thermal advection to beat the dry air. yes...I am a little concerned over dry air, and how the precip shield orients, since the models are pretty inconsistent. Though I don't think the later start time is bad for us. It may be good. IN terms of snow there will be somewhat large localized differences imo that aren't necessarily oriented on a classic SE to NW gradient. But of course the western burbs will do better. But it won't be uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This thing definitely has high bust potential like the NAM is showing... not saying I agree with it but qpf has been a concern giving the dry sinking air east of the Apps. The more we hope for cold air, the drier it will be and the more precip we lose as virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 HM pretty much is right on. For us to get a decent snow we need strong uvv and a thump on the front end. The dry air has to be overcome to do that which can happen but is why we have so few decent snows with the low tracking to our west. It's harder to get the good mid level frontogenesis with such poor upper level support. It's gonna be a tricky forecast. If we do not see sufficient lift, we don't see the cooling and moistening. If we don't see that aloft, dry air wins. So the folks obsessed with CAD and QPF better understand this before expectations are bolstered beyond reason. Having said that, if it is going to happen anywhere, it's going to be you guys! Up here in S NJ, it's lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 HM pretty much is right on. For us to get a decent snow we need strong uvv and a thump on the front end. The dry air has to be overcome to do that which can happen but is why we have so few decent snows with the low tracking to our west. It's harder to get the good mid level frontogenesis with such poor upper level support. It's gonna be a tricky forecast. The bust potential is pretty high for me and you. Less so for western areas esp in terms of icing. I think throwing around 3"+ totals, 72 hours out for me and you is a bit brazen...I think people have to check themselves. And these snow maps are silly and don't involve any real forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 yes...I am a little concerned over dry air, and how the precip shield orients, since the models are pretty inconsistent. Though I don't think the later start time is bad for us. It may be good. IN terms of snow there will be somewhat large localized differences imo that aren't necessarily oriented on a classic SE to NW gradient. But of course the western burbs will do better. But it won't be uniform. I agree. You'll get your normal thermal distribution of snow accumulation SE to NW but made ugly by the dry air/bands. This, btw, is not the same issue as last year's bust where CI induced convection in VA robbed lift. But again, understanding lift is key here and how that may or may not change as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The bust potential is pretty high for me and you. Less so for western areas esp in terms of icing. I think throwing around 3"+ totals, 72 hours out for me and you is a bit brazen...I think people have to check themselves. And these snow maps are silly and don't involve any real forecasting. I think I remember quite a few "underperformers" in this type of set up. It's still not time to give out accumulation unless you want to be first and then proclaim it to the world. I give us about 50% chance of getting an inch or more. That's taking into account we're still 3 days away from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What may become a concern should the lift end up ragged and QPF drops, would be more region-wide ZR. Poor snow making and intensity could mean that, pending soundings of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think I remember quite a few "underperformers" in this type of set up. It's still not time to give out accumulation unless you want to be first and then proclaim it to the world. I give us about 50% chance of getting an inch or more. That's taking into account we're still 3 days away from the event.I'm with you Wes. The model porn is great to look at but looking back at similar events has kept me very reasonable. Unfortunately the 6z gfs was Cindy Crawford like and the 12 nam is basically Nancy Pelosi. 1-2" at best around the cities has been my thoughts for some time. I'm glad to see you feel about the same for an inch or so. Encouraging words imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think I remember quite a few "underperformers" in this type of set up. It's still not time to give out accumulation unless you want to be first and then proclaim it to the world. I give us about 50% chance of getting an inch or more. That's taking into account we're still 3 days away from the event.I remember a number of front end thumps that were more like a light swat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 mood around here sure changes pretty easily like the wind it's not like it was the Euro that jumped ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 mood around here sure changes pretty easily like the wind it's not like it was the Euro that jumped ship I'm actually not that worried. We poo poo the NAM when it shows a crushing QPF bomb, so we should do the same now. If the GFS shows the same trend, then it's time to wonder.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What may become a concern should the lift end up ragged and QPF drops, would be more region-wide ZR. Poor snow making and intensity could mean that, pending soundings of course. For ice accretion that might be the best type of event as really heavy precip would start as snow, goto cie pellets and then heavy freezing rain tends to bet messed up because of latest heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 mood around here sure changes pretty easily like the wind it's not like it was the Euro that jumped ship Mitch, we do this every time. There's always a phail model run at this stage. I loved looking at the best case runs but I never bought into them. I doubt the nam is right with how weak it is with the precip compared to all other reliable guidance. Not to mention we're far past the 48 hour useful range. I doubt the gfs and even the euro because we not getting 4"+ near the cities with this unless it goes down in the books as one of the more unusual CAD/low to the west events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 mood around here sure changes pretty easily like the wind it's not like it was the Euro that jumped ship When you haven't seen a good snow for almost 3 years (excluding March of last year) you get very antsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 For ice accretion that might be the best type of event as really heavy precip would start as snow, goto cie pellets and then heavy freezing rain tends to bet messed up because of latest heating. Exactly. I linked papers on zr in December Discussion thread yesterday. Feel free to add more if you've got any good ones on hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I don't know about you guys, but I'd be tickled to death with light snow from mid-morning to late afternoon and an inch or two of snow while I tailgate and watch the Ravens game... Nothing better than football and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 When you haven't seen a good snow for almost 3 years (excluding March of last year) you get very antsy Amen to that! But have to take it all in stride at this point, the event is still 3 days out. And even that March event (I assume you're refering to the morning of Mar. 25?) was not really "area-wide" in terms of getting more than a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Exactly. I linked papers on zr in December Discussion thread yesterday. Feel free to add more if you've got any good ones on hand. I saw your links back in that forum, and wanted to say thanks for posting them. I'd like to take a look at them when I've got more of a chance (at least a cursory read). Freezing rain and sleet events are quite interesting in terms of the thermodynamics going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS delivers the goods. Wow. The high is really locked in right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Gosh must be nice to be way ahead of ncep tssn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm up to 78...GFS is cold at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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