WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The icing potential for some parts is honestly a bit alarming. Yes, I know we have a long way to go. The Euro doesn't get the northern Shen Valley above freezing until nearly 7 AM Monday morning. Obviously, the more snow that falls the better, but 0.5+" of ice can cause real problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That northern cut off is semi-brutal... .68 in Westminster and .21 at MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That northern cut off is semi-brutal... .68 in Westminster and .21 at MDT. Yeah... that worries me a bit. I'm hoping to be along the same lines as Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah... that worries me a bit. I'm hoping to be along the same lines as Westminster. You need to learn to not worry about that. You are in the whiny "fringe zone" now, which means you'll need to always b**ch and moan about getting fringed like Leesburg does and then always end up with the most snow in the end due to a mega-band which always parks over the "fringe zone." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 You need to learn to not worry about that. You are in the whiny "fringe zone" now, which means you'll need to always b**ch and moan about getting fringed like Leesburg does and then always end up with the most snow in the end due to a mega-band which always parks over the "fringe zone." Thanks, Phin! You're right, I have no idea what to expect in my area now. With that said, I'll try to keep the whiny/bitchy fringe talk to a minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 don't know if I'd go that high even to start with. I've never seen a low go west of the mountains and produce more than 5 inches and then only once in my 40 years as a met. I've seen maybe 4 inches 2 or 3 times. Usually way less.....and ends up being a big disappointment. The high is uncommonly strong and with the models trending colder, accumulating snow looks likely. Too early to guess at amounts. The ens mean for last night was around .30" inches falling as snow with freezing rain behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The icing potential for some parts is honestly a bit alarming. Yes, I know we have a long way to go. The Euro doesn't get the northern Shen Valley above freezing until nearly 7 AM Monday morning. Obviously, the more snow that falls the better, but 0.5+" of ice can cause real problems. I'm in the same boat as you on this one except we may get above freezing a little bit sooner. You also probably have a better chance of seeing more snow, than freezing rain in my opinion. Blacksburg stated in their morning AFD that the main p-type they're expecting across their CWA is ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I've never seen a low go west of the mountains and produce more than 5 inches and then only once in my 40 years as a met. I've seen maybe 4 inches 2 or 3 times. Usually way less.....and ends up being a big disappointment. The high is uncommonly strong and with the models trending colder, accumulating snow looks likely. Too early to guess at amounts. The ens mean for last night was around .30" inches falling as snow with freezing rain behind that. thanks, Wes. You and i will likely be happy just to get a dusting with ice so thats where I'm putting the benchmark for us SE DC people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 thanks, Wes. You and i will likely be happy just to get a dusting with ice so thats where I'm putting the benchmark for us SE DC peopleI think you could confidently set that benchmark to 1" and still exceed it even down there. I like 2-4 for the cities at this time. A mesh of the guidance shows thats reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 I've never seen a low go west of the mountains and produce more than 5 inches and then only once in my 40 years as a met. I've seen maybe 4 inches 2 or 3 times. Usually way less.....and ends up being a big disappointment. The high is uncommonly strong and with the models trending colder, accumulating snow looks likely. Too early to guess at amounts. The ens mean for last night was around .30" inches falling as snow with freezing rain behind that. Warning criteria? 3" + .25" ice/zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Warning criteria? 3" + .25" ice/zr? Who knows? If the models still look like this on Saturday, I think they'll be a warning out for areas west of the city. For DC, it depends, right now I'd guess advisory but it's early and Sterling likes warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Who knows? If the models still look like this on Saturday, I think they'll be a warning out for areas west of the city. For DC, it depends, right now I'd guess advisory but it's early and Sterling likes warnings. I could see LWX going WSW for I-95 corridor and west tomorrow afternoon and then going from there whether to go WWA or WSWarning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Quick question in regards to developing hp in the later frames on the nam will it play a huge role with placement of hp? I see on the 12z nam 45 hr Image the high is in eastern SD whereas 51 hr 06z nam had it in se NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks like the icing might get ugly out here for a while. Good thing it shouldn't be too windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I could see LWX going WSW for I-95 corridor and west tomorrow afternoon and then going from there whether to go WWA or WSWarning I would guess an watch would go up tomorrow afternoon and then the warning would be put out Saturday, probably in the morning now that I've thought about it more. That's still dependent on the models holding course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Down in Western Spotsylvania County, VA......best guess is maybe 1 inch followed by a little bit of icing and then rain........is that in the ballpark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Last big low to our west that the models were showing snow for us was VD storm in 07 if I recall...models showed a good amount of snow till the end...we all remember the results...right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hr 60 (7pm SAT/00z SUN) on 12z NAM 850 0c line is at VA/NC border... -5c 850 line is in C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hr 60 on 12z NAM 850 0c line is at VA/NC border... -5c 850 line is in C VASolid cold wedge already starting to set in. Hope we get a nice thump this run to keep the winning streak of runs going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z NAM thru 57 hrs has the boundary even a bit further south than at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm in the same boat as you on this one except we may get above freezing a little bit sooner. You also probably have a better chance of seeing more snow, than freezing rain in my opinion. Blacksburg stated in their morning AFD that the main p-type they're expecting across their CWA is ZR. that MAY be changing-- with sleet being a large chunk. Soundings are showing a lot of -5, -6 between 1 and 4k feet. The warming aloft above that is more like 2-3 c, which is a pretty sleety look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hr 75 850 0c line down in S VA still... DCA is probably around -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Colder and slower though 75.. Wedge down to i-40 in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 May be cold, but where is the precip? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Re: The NAM, where is the LP in the OH? There is none! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Damning is pretty well entrenched...but it looks a bit parched. Surprising for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The CAD modeling trends will do what they always do. The only thing that matters is getting that right timing of factors for lift: mid level frontogen, isentropic lift, diff. thermal advection to beat the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well good thing is its in the upper 20s to around 30 at 00z MON... bad thing is not much precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 84 hr nam not showing precip.. Time to worry ehh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 May be cold, but where is the precip? lol That shows .75 by 84. seems like that is what most models were saying would fall by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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