The "What To Title The Storm?" Thread - Dec 8-9

[mitchnick]

Well I am fortunate to have an outlook on the DC airports.

 

It does seem like some snow or snow/sleet to start in many areas, but this could be an icy mess near IAD and those areas with a bit of elevation...esp near I-81. High pressure will not be denied. Quite possible the area near and just north of DC gets a good burst of SN to start.

odd, because I looked at soundings imby through 90 hours and the entire column is below freezing and this much has fallen (6z run)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_090_precip_p12.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[MN Transplant]

The 6z GFS is basically the ideal run. We now have our upper bound.

[mitchnick]

The 6z GFS is basically the ideal run. We now have our upper bound.

oh no, it can and will get better   

[mitchnick]

BWI sounding at 90 hours 6z GFS

getting ready to turn but over .5" has fallen

1019.    69.   -1.5   -1.7    62.9     3.2 1000.   233.   -2.7   -2.9    74.6     5.9  975.   433.   -3.2   -3.3    93.2     8.8  950.   639.   -2.4   -2.6   112.3    11.0  925.   851.   -2.3   -2.4   130.9    11.6  900.  1069.   -1.8   -1.9   154.0    11.5  850.  1526.   -0.2   -0.5   200.0    14.8  800.  2011.   -0.2   -0.6   222.4    19.1  750.  2527.   -0.8   -1.0   236.7    23.1  700.  3079.   -2.0   -2.2   247.7    24.1  650.  3666.   -3.8   -4.0   252.6    26.0

[nflwxman]

 

BWI sounding at 90 hours at BWI

getting ready to turn but over .5" has fallen

1019.    69.   -1.5   -1.7    62.9     3.2 1000.   233.   -2.7   -2.9    74.6     5.9  975.   433.   -3.2   -3.3    93.2     8.8  950.   639.   -2.4   -2.6   112.3    11.0  925.   851.   -2.3   -2.4   130.9    11.6  900.  1069.   -1.8   -1.9   154.0    11.5  850.  1526.   -0.2   -0.5   200.0    14.8  800.  2011.   -0.2   -0.6   222.4    19.1  750.  2527.   -0.8   -1.0   236.7    23.1  700.  3079.   -2.0   -2.2   247.7    24.1  650.  3666.   -3.8   -4.0   252.6    26.0

Hey mitch, do you mind running that for CHO or giving me the link to run it?  That would be great, thanks!

[Scraff]

Finally ready to go all in here. Is the .5" at 10:1 ratios?

[mitchnick]

Finally ready to go all in here. Is the .5" at 10:1 ratios?

that's what we usually get around here when temps are freezing through the entire column

here's precip; the numbers start at 15z on Sunday at BWI

FIELD  MSL PRESSURE   TEMPERATURE   DEW POINT       TEMPERATURE    THICKNESS      HEIGHT         PRECIPITATION LEVEL                     2M             2M           850 MB         500 MB         500 MB                UNITS      HPA            DEGC            DEGC          DEGC            DM             DM            MM    HR+  0.   1034.8           -1.3           -6.7           -4.9          542.8          569.9           0.54+  3.   1032.9           -2.3           -3.5           -4.5          542.9          568.8           3.56+  6.   1030.4           -2.6           -3.1           -1.9          545.4          568.9           7.33+  9.   1029.4           -1.5           -1.7           -0.2          546.4          569.8           4.70+ 12.   1026.6            0.3            0.2            2.4          548.6          569.6           5.49

[mitchnick]

Hey mitch, do you mind running that for CHO or giving me the link to run it?  That would be great, thanks!

you have to put in long and lat

http://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

[Scraff]

Thanks Mitch. On my phone at the moment so it's a puzzle to read. Will check out from the laptop shortly though.

[needbiggerboat]

IAD at least .6 with surface and 850s under 0...another .25-.5 as 850 warms with surface still below 0

Prob wouldn't take much to push 8-10 snow...as is looks like 5-7 snow with frz rain or sleet on top

[WeSuck]

I am in love. With all models converging on a solution with minor differences, I am eagerly yet cautiously getting excited. This will be mg first true CAD event as coming up here from Norfolk is quite the change in regard to these types of events than what I am used too.

IAD at least .6 with surface and 850s under 0...another .25-.5 as 850 warms with surface still below 0

Prob wouldn't take much to push 8-10 snow...as is looks like 5-7 snow with frz rain or sleet on top

[Weathergun]

6z GFS Bufkit. Looks a nice thumping snow for DCA on Sunday. Big omega in the snow growth region:

 

[H2O]

IAD at least .6 with surface and 850s under 0...another .25-.5 as 850 warms with surface still below 0

Prob wouldn't take much to push 8-10 snow...as is looks like 5-7 snow with frz rain or sleet on top

 

don't know if I'd go that high even to start with.

[DDweatherman]

Early thinking as model cosistency is gaining. Today could be a happy day for model watchers as the 6z gfs was truly the money shot run. Things are looking solid this point. Snow for all to start around DC BAL over to the west. It will hold on longer before the changeover as will ZR before it goes to rain. Actually impressed with the snow threat for eastern parts including the cities, since ice is a tough thing to have in those locales. First accumulating snow is now likely for the 3 airports, so its a nice day to be model watching.

[H2O]

DGEX looks awesome too

[WxUSAF]

The 6z GFS is basically the ideal run. We now have our upper bound.

For real.  Stays all snow for Mitch and I (and points NE) until just after 0z most likely.  That's 0.5"+ of QPF all snow.  0z Euro is drier and I'd hedge that way as well.  Before I was thinking 0.5-2" of snow for the 95 corridor before a changeover.  If the 12z runs hold form, maybe more like 2-4"?

[mitchnick]

For real.  Stays all snow for Mitch and I (and points NE) until just after 0z most likely.  That's 0.5"+ of QPF all snow.  0z Euro is drier and I'd hedge that way as well.  Before I was thinking 0.5-2" of snow for the 95 corridor before a changeover.  If the 12z runs hold form, maybe more like 2-4"?

Euro had us for 2"+ in 1 panel and 1"+ the next panel per Wunderground snow maps which were pretty darn accurate last year in giving us nothing with the early March threat and giving us 3"+ for the end of March event when we received 3.5"

obviously, they are not perfect all the time but I find them conservative, hence more accurate than most snow maps

[snowfan]

For real.  Stays all snow for Mitch and I (and points NE) until just after 0z most likely.  That's 0.5"+ of QPF all snow.  0z Euro is drier and I'd hedge that way as well.  Before I was thinking 0.5-2" of snow for the 95 corridor before a changeover.  If the 12z runs hold form, maybe more like 2-4"?

How much is ice after that initial shot of snow?

[wxmeddler]

6z GFS Bufkit. Looks a nice thumping snow for DCA on Sunday. Big omega in the snow growth region:

 

While omega's are nice, that sounding is only flurries to -SN. In order to really crank, you want the entire sounding to the tropopause to be saturated (purple or reds in bufkit.)

[DDweatherman]

For real. Stays all snow for Mitch and I (and points NE) until just after 0z most likely. That's 0.5"+ of QPF all snow. 0z Euro is drier and I'd hedge that way as well. Before I was thinking 0.5-2" of snow for the 95 corridor before a changeover. If the 12z runs hold form, maybe more like 2-4"?

2-4" is along the lines of what I am thinking down the 95 corridor.

[WxUSAF]

How much is ice after that initial shot of snow?

Just looking at the lower-level temps on instantweathermaps.com, I'd say there's only a couple hours of ice on the 6z GFS for many points east of DC and certainly along the Bay shore north of Annapolis.  Maybe just from ~0-3z? About 0.25" falls in that time probably as a mix of sleet and fzra.  Farther west, the low level temps stay colder and there's a longer period of freezing rain.  For the Baltimore area, the 6z GFS is more of a snow, brief ice, to rain event.  

[DDweatherman]

Just looking at the lower-level temps on instantweathermaps.com, I'd say there's only a couple hours of ice on the 6z GFS for many points east of DC and certainly along the Bay shore north of Annapolis. Maybe just from ~0-3z? About 0.25" falls in that time probably as a mix of sleet and fzra. Farther west, the low level temps stay colder and there's a longer period of freezing rain. For the Baltimore area, the 6z GFS is more of a snow, brief ice, to rain event.

Yes, made a little post about that. More snow, less ice coming, better trend.

[mitchnick]

While omega's are nice, that sounding is only flurries to -SN. In order to really crank, you want the entire sounding to the tropopause to be saturated (purple or reds in bufkit.)

since it's a sounding from 84 hrs, I doubt that it's anything close to flurries coming down

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L

[ThreeRedheads]

Interesting graphic for IAD,  Can't get DCA and BWI to load

 

IAD:  http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kiad

[CoastalWx]

odd, because I looked at soundings imby through 90 hours and the entire column is below freezing and this much has fallen (6z run)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_090_precip_p12.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

Yeah, that's why I stated north of DC may get a good thumping...it may try to hold on longer with dynamical cooling because of the omega thump. But beware the warm tongue moving in aloft...always need to respect that.

 

Regardless still a ways to go, but this looks to have an impact.

[H2O]

Interesting graphic for IAD,  Can't get DCA and BWI to load

 

IAD:  http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kiad

 

i got DCA to come up and I'll take 7.5" the 0z GFS gives me

[mappy]

I don't necessarily believe the ratio's Cobb spits out for Westminster, but honestly, I would be super happy with that much snow followed by a little ZR

[WxUSAF]

I don't necessarily believe the ratio's Cobb spits out for Westminster, but honestly, I would be super happy with that much snow followed by a little ZR

You should flat out reject those snow ratios.  If the profile is as cold as the 6z GFS predicts, then 10:1 is reasonable.  If it's more borderline like what so many other runs yesterday showed, probably more like 6-8:1.  

[DDweatherman]

You should flat out reject those snow ratios. If the profile is as cold as the 6z GFS predicts, then 10:1 is reasonable. If it's more borderline like what so many other runs yesterday showed, probably more like 6-8:1.

Definitely, not gonna see anything over 10:1 except isolated 11-12:1 at the onset when temps and the SG zone is most optimal. GFS 6z verbatim would be about 4-7" for MTN and BWI

[mappy]

You should flat out reject those snow ratios.  If the profile is as cold as the 6z GFS predicts, then 10:1 is reasonable.  If it's more borderline like what so many other runs yesterday showed, probably more like 6-8:1.  

 

well even 10:1 gives me 6" (.68 qpf while its "snowing")