snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Dangerous to start this thread before Dr. No appears in about 10 minutes screws us every time...great thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 screws us every time...great thread! I bet you still believe bloodletting works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro is just one of the possible solutions....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro is just one of the possible solutions....right? Or.....the euro fits the pattern better...lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I bet you still believe bloodletting works. Fair enough...I'll discuss the storm. Euro is a bad solution for most of us. Hopefully it is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro is just one of the possible solutions....right? that solution gives you an inch of snow and then a period of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 maybe 1-2 inches for Leesburg followed by ice. most frozen precip falls sunday night. Im glad its the GFS/GGEM vs Euro said no one ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 that solution gives you an inch of snow and then a period of ice IMBY post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 IMBY post thats in your back yard..not mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 12z GFS sounding at 18z Sunday is snow for DC and Baltimore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GEFS members agree with the op run overall. Euro also shows some frozen and the phantom followup wave. Good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 thats in your back yard..not mine I am higher up than you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GEFS members agree with the op run overall. Euro also shows some frozen and the phantom followup wave. Good enough for me. Euro is cold for about 18 hours-24 hours while precip is falling but there isnt much precip though. Thats the biggest problem. its not the cold...its the dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Fair enough...I'll discuss the storm. Euro is a bad solution for most of us. Hopefully it is wrong.Looks at least slightly worse than last night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks at least slightly worse than last night too. GFS ensembles>euro operational ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks at least slightly worse than last night too. To me it does. Besides that, not a low track that is very good for us but everyone here knows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 So what is the gfs and its ensembles doing wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 So what is the gfs and its ensembles doing wrong? Showing us with snow and/or ice. ETA: Non-snarky answer...I bet it is off with its handling of the features to the north and cold air won't be held in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 So what is the gfs and its ensembles doing wrong? I'd wait for the Euro ensembles before declaring anything wrong. For a Day 5 prog, ensembles are still the way to go. The caveat in this situation is that lower resolution ensemble members will have a harder time seeing CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 So what is the gfs and its ensembles doing wrong? GFS is definitely quicker so the antecedent airmass is better. It's also wetter. I know the euro took some wind out of the weeniesm but totally discarding the gfs for a verbatim euro op solution is precarious. GFS has other model support as well. Just not king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS is definitely quicker so the antecedent airmass is better. It's also wetter. I know the euro took some wind out of the weeniesm but totally discarding the gfs for a verbatim euro op solution is precarious. GFS has other model support as well. Just not king. after the 2001-2002 winter, i was convinced we would never see snow again. We will see a snowstorm again this lifetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 So what is the gfs and its ensembles doing wrong? The euro has been wrong plenty itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Does the Euro get any frozen into BWI? As long as I see some kind of frozen falling for short period of time then that is a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'd wait for the Euro ensembles before declaring anything wrong. For a Day 5 prog, ensembles are still the way to go. The caveat in this situation is that lower resolution ensemble members will have a harder time seeing CAD. Yep. I don't think that matters so much at 850 but at the surface it sure does. I tried to make that point in my article. For dc I think the GFS is probably a worst case (or best if you like ice and snow) and even then it's temps around DC are so close to freezing it probalby wouldn't disrupt travel much since it is happening during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yep. I don't think that matters so much at 850 but at the surface it sure does. I tried to make that point in my article. For dc I think the GFS is probably a worst case (or best if you like ice and snow) and even then it's temps around DC are so close to freezing it probalby wouldn't disrupt travel much since it is happening during the day. yes...our source air mass is kind of weak. Buffalo has a forecasted high of 34 on Sunday...Chicago 30...I doubt anyone goes below 28-30, and many of us 30-32 even with the big high.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 People are going to like the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 People are going to like the 18z GFS Precip moving it at lightning speed with a 1038 in PA at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Precip moving it at lightning speed with a 1038 in PA at 108. I'm out to 126...people are going to like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 People are going to like the 18z GFS It's like happy hour after work. And then the 0z runs are when real life problems are pondered as you fall asleep every night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Too bad it's the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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