ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 FWIW, dewpoints are still in the teens at hr 84... so there may still be some dewpoint depression cooling Wetbulbing/evaporational cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 now this is why we follow the NAM lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M lol...always dependable. 12z NAM will have light blues over us with surface temps of 28, 850's -2c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 lol...always dependable. 12z NAM will have light blues over us with surface temps of 28, 850's -2c Ian's effects on you have become noticeable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 In all seriousness, the NAM is pretty decent when it comes to small scale features and CAD...not sure > 60 but under that, yeah. Probably better than the GFS? We all should know by now that the QPF is loltastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Ian's effects on you have become noticeable Meh, I'm getting less weenie-ish in my old age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 In all seriousness, the NAM is pretty decent when it comes to small scale features and CAD...not sure > 60 but under that, yeah. Probably better than the GFS? We all should know by now that the QPF is loltastic. The GFS handles CAD probably the worst of all guidance...at least up here it does. It's frequently had 2M temps about 10-12F too warm in CAD events. Its probably a little better down there as it can "see" the terrain better there than New England, but I'm sure it still tries to erode the cold wedge to the west way too fast in most CAD setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 lol...always dependable. 12z NAM will have light blues over us with surface temps of 28, 850's -2c Rather it show 12-18" than 2", the former means 2-4 might be possible somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 The GFS handles CAD probably the worst of all guidance...at least up here it does. It's frequently had 2M temps about 10-12F too warm in CAD events. Its probably a little better down there as it can "see" the terrain better there than New England, but I'm sure it still tries to erode the cold wedge to the west way too fast in most CAD setups. Jesus, 10-12 degrees off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Does the Nam looks slower then other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The GFS handles CAD probably the worst of all guidance...at least up here it does. It's frequently had 2M temps about 10-12F too warm in CAD events. Its probably a little better down there as it can "see" the terrain better there than New England, but I'm sure it still tries to erode the cold wedge to the west way too fast in most CAD setups. Glad you are here. You are a good met. You must see at least some potential in this thing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Jesus, 10-12 degrees off? In the December 2008 ice storm, it had no freezing rain at all for ORH with temps in the lower 40s. (actual temps were around 30-31F with over an inch of ice) and in the December 2012 ice event, it had temps around 40F and much of the interior was in the upper 20s. Like I said, I doubt it would be that bad everywhere and especially further south where the terrain is easier for the model to grid, but there is no doubt it still is terrible at CAD due just to its vertical resolution alone in addition to any other nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 we didn't have them here, but the schools were closed like forever I think 1994 had the most closures for MoCo since I've been teaching; more than 95-96 and 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Does the Nam looks slower then other guidance? yes, but it may be because it has the boundary so much further south (especially vs. 18z gfs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 yes, but it may be because it has the boundary so much further south (especially vs. 18z gfs) Especially when it drives the 1320 1000-850mb thickness line down into NW SC at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 In the December 2008 ice storm, it had no freezing rain at all for ORH with temps in the lower 40s. (actual temps were around 30-31F with over an inch of ice) and in the December 2012 ice event, it had temps around 40F and much of the interior was in the upper 20s. Like I said, I doubt it would be that bad everywhere and especially further south where the terrain is easier for the model to grid, but there is no doubt it still is terrible at CAD due just to its vertical resolution alone in addition to any other nuances. On topic: I actually think CAD will be better for us the closer we get in. Again, I hope folks know to be cautious with the NAM's QPF output though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Glad you are here. You are a good met. You must see at least some potential in this thing for us. Thanks...it looks pretty interesting right now. But this is like 90 hours out even though it seems like its closer, so it can still change quite a bit. I like big CAD events, so hopefully this one stays impressive looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 <img snipped> On topic: I actually think CAD will be better for us the closer we get in. Again, I hope folks know to be cautious with the NAM's QPF output though. at the pic But yes, I think we all know by now to cut the NAM's QPF in half (well we should know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On topic: I actually think CAD will be better for us the closer we get in. Again, I hope folks know to be cautious with the NAM's QPF output though. As long as the high position/strength doesn't change much, this is usually true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As long as the high position/strength doesn't change much, this is usually true. Will (or whoever knows), when looking at the 1000-850 thickness line... is it 1300 or 1320 that I should be looking at for the 0c line? That's usually the 32 degree demarcation, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 In the December 2008 ice storm, it had no freezing rain at all for ORH with temps in the lower 40s. (actual temps were around 30-31F with over an inch of ice) and in the December 2012 ice event, it had temps around 40F and much of the interior was in the upper 20s. Like I said, I doubt it would be that bad everywhere and especially further south where the terrain is easier for the model to grid, but there is no doubt it still is terrible at CAD due just to its vertical resolution alone in addition to any other nuances. That was just a sick event for us up there at the time. A perfect northerly flow bringing that cold air down and your area in ORH and mine in SNH just got smoked. Hours and hours of a steady rain and 28-29*. I still remember when the wx stations were disappearing off Milford Pauls website when the power started going out across the area. It will be interesting to see this folds out there this time around though. I think it was 1996 perhaps, the northern Shen Valley got hammered with a pretty bad ice storm but dont remember the specifics and the set up they had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Models were nowhere close with surface temps on the 3/19 storm in Hagerstown. It was 31f instead of 40f. So I don't doubt ORHs post that models are too quick with retreating shallow arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Will, when looking at the 1000-850 thickness line... is it 1300 or 1320 that I should be looking at for the 0c line? That's usually the 32 degree demarcation, correct? 1300m is usually where the boundary layer is cold enough to support snow, but its not going to be very useful in an icing event since the top part of that layer is going to be above freezing. But certainly 1300m will support snow or sleet if you are looking at it before the warming gets below 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 At this point, it looks likely that there will be a major icing event in my neck of the woods. Temperatures should not be a question(I think we are progged to max at out 30 here on the GFS during higher QPF). I think the only question is whether or not that front end thump will provide enough QPF to be disruptive or not. I think the same holds true for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Things looking a smidge colder thru 75hrs on the 00z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 BOOM at 90 850 0c line just south of DCA at 93... snow sounding at DCA is still snow but pingers inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS is significantly colder through 90 hours vs 96 hours on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS I love when you do that and then leave us hanging for the 4 minutes you are ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That period from 12z to 18z looks pretty awesome. That's a lot of precip in that amount if time in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS is significantly colder through 90 hours vs 96 hours on the 18z run. Hopefully it's 10-12 degrees too warm:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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