The "What To Title The Storm?" Thread - Dec 8-9

[needbiggerboat]

Here is the cobb for us Mitch, i will take your 3" and be tickled pink.

Cobb for IAD has 2.3...based on past similar set ups, I'd guess the snow holds on a bit longer and we get 3-5 b4 changeover.

[BristowWx]

Cobb for IAD has 2.3...based on past similar set ups, I'd guess the snow holds on a bit longer and we get 3-5 b4 changeover.

Although the high is good to north do you think the modeled thickness being greater than 540 when the precip comes in will impact getting 3-5 at IAD...it seems like more IP than SN would be in the cards. I am just an old fashioned worry wort but greater than 540 always makes me pause when it comes to SN

[winter_warlock]

Yep, in 1994 we had an ice storm with temps in the upper teens and low twenties. The forecast was that temps would rise above freezing after a few hours of zr, but the temps hung tough. At some point there were temps in the low 50's in WV while it was still well below freezing east of the mountains.

ahhh 1994 I remember those ice storms,  I remember it being 15 degrees  with sleet ALL DAY lol they kept saying a high of 40 but it never got to 20 lol  I got nearly 6 inches of sleet then 3-4 inches of snow on top of it in one storm, that winter it seemed like every storm was a major ice storm. it was wild

[mitchnick]

I don't think you can assume a 10:1 ratio, Mitch.

Cobb Bufkit Data has 8:1 ratios at MRB for the front end.  It also has 0.93" of freezing rain after that, most of that with temps below 30.

sure I can...I just may not be right, that's all!

[jnis]

ahhh 1994 I remember those ice storms,  I remember it being 15 degrees  with sleet ALL DAY lol they kept saying a high of 40 but it never got to 20 lol  I got nearly 6 inches of sleet then 3-4 inches of snow on top of it in one storm, that winter it seemed like every storm was a major ice storm. it was wild

Indeed, at one point that winter my yard had nearly 4" of solid ice. It was the year of the ice. I believe the polar vortex was camped out somewhere over the Hudson Bay for quite a while that winter.

[mitchnick]

Indeed, at one point that winter my yard had nearly 4" of solid ice. It was the year of the ice. I believe the polar vortex was camped out somewhere over the Hudson Bay for quite a while that winter.

that winter plain sucked if you liked snow; I was soooo sick of seeing white boogers fall from the sky by the time FEB hit I wanted to scream

[jnis]

that winter plain sucked if you liked snow; I was soooo sick of seeing white boogers fall from the sky by the time FEB hit I wanted to scream

Yeah, I know what you mean.

[needbiggerboat]

Although the high is good to north do you think the modeled thickness being greater than 540 when the precip comes in will impact getting 3-5 at IAD...it seems like more IP than SN would be in the cards. I am just an old fashioned worry wort but greater than 540 always makes me pause when it comes to SN

Not sure about that fancy science talk, but I'm agnostic, be it pingers or snow. Just want a chance to use my new snow blower.

Although the rain will wash everything away later in teh day, so it's a moat point.

[needbiggerboat]

ahhh 1994 I remember those ice storms,  I remember it being 15 degrees  with sleet ALL DAY lol they kept saying a high of 40 but it never got to 20 lol  I got nearly 6 inches of sleet then 3-4 inches of snow on top of it in one storm, that winter it seemed like every storm was a major ice storm. it was wild

You and that Tentpole Jackson poster, yu guys remember stuff

[Huffwx]

NAM is colder..0c is down to NC at 72 hours. 

[yoda]

NAM is colder..0c is down to NC at 72 hours. 

 

At 84 -- temps look like 26/27... 850 0c line is in S VA

[Huffwx]

Straddling the NC/VA line at 78... pressing into N NC.  -5 850 line is just north of DCA

 

 

Yeah, zooms down to south of BOONE..

 

-3 makes it to LYH. Haven't had that for a while. 

[mitchnick]

sim rad at 72 hrs looks a lot better down south vs. 18z at 78 hrs, that's for sure

[Ian]

NAM's definitely going to give us 12-18" one run.

[mitchnick]

hmm, comparing 72 hr 0Z to 18z 78 hrs, thicknesses over DCA/BWI were actually lower on 18 z

that's odd since 850s are definitely colder

[GEOS5ftw]

Don't want to get too off track while the NAM is rolling but those 1994 storms were ridiculous. I particularly remember the Jan 17 (MLK day?) one, which was a few hours of sn, then ip, then zr all afternoon as the temp slowly rose to 32, then the mother of all cold fronts came through and it was -6 the next day. If you look back at the maps though, that should have never been frozen based on the synoptic setup (it was basically a weak low in the Lakes with a trailing cold front). The high had moved offshore before precip started but the antecedent air mass was just so damn cold that even though were were advecting air from the outer banks at the surface, that was still below freezing!

 

Then there was the Feb storm with all the sleet. That one I remember because the sleet would ping off the roof and accumulate in 2 foot piles around the edge of the house while it was probably 6 inches deep elsewhere. Took a lot longer to melt than the same amount of snow too.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM's definitely going to give us 12-18" one run.

 

 

Probably in about a 6-9 hour period too.

[Amped]

Are people actually discussing the NAM for this region after last year?

 

 

[mitchnick]

Don't want to get too off track while the NAM is rolling but those 1994 storms were ridiculous. I particularly remember the Jan 17 (MLK day?) one, which was a few hours of sn, then ip, then zr all afternoon as the temp slowly rose to 32, then the mother of all cold fronts came through and it was -6 the next day. If you look back at the maps though, that should have never been frozen based on the synoptic setup (it was basically a weak low in the Lakes with a trailing cold front). The high had moved offshore before precip started but the antecedent air mass was just so damn cold that even though were were advecting air from the outer banks at the surface, that was still below freezing!

 

Then there was the Feb storm with all the sleet. That one I remember because the sleet would ping off the roof and accumulate in 2 foot piles around the edge of the house while it was probably 6 inches deep elsewhere. Took a lot longer to melt than the same amount of snow too.

remember the frigid day after the storm well....had to walk 9 blocks in Baltimore City to court only to find out the judge couldn't make it in so I walked back on St. Paul Street with a nice fetch all the way up and back

[stormtracker]

NAM's definitely going to give us 12-18" one run.

 

I already called it.  I thought it would be 0z, but I was a little quick probably.  12z should do it.

[clueless]

Don't want to get too off track while the NAM is rolling but those 1994 storms were ridiculous. I particularly remember the Jan 17 (MLK day?) one, which was a few hours of sn, then ip, then zr all afternoon as the temp slowly rose to 32, then the mother of all cold fronts came through and it was -6 the next day. If you look back at the maps though, that should have never been frozen based on the synoptic setup (it was basically a weak low in the Lakes with a trailing cold front). The high had moved offshore before precip started but the antecedent air mass was just so damn cold that even though were were advecting air from the outer banks at the surface, that was still below freezing!

 

Then there was the Feb storm with all the sleet. That one I remember because the sleet would ping off the roof and accumulate in 2 foot piles around the edge of the house while it was probably 6 inches deep elsewhere. Took a lot longer to melt than the same amount of snow too.

I only remember it because I was on my hands and knees trying to make my way back to my car after night class at grad school in College Park.

[Bob Chill]

The nam at this range is a movie trailer. In a short period of time it shows all the cool stuff that might happen. It teases. Entices. Makes you break out your wallet and buy a ticket for the globals. And then you watch them with glazed and bored eyes and can't even get a refund.

[mitchnick]

Are people actually discussing the NAM for this region after last year?

 

if an old girlfriend called you up after she dumped you, you'd go out with her anyway....it's the same with the NAM

[Jebman]

Indeed, at one point that winter my yard had nearly 4" of solid ice. It was the year of the ice. I believe the polar vortex was camped out somewhere over the Hudson Bay for quite a while that winter.

1994-94. I remember one storm that dumped three inches of sleet pellets. Then it hardened into a glacier. Jebwalks were absolutely fantastic under those conditions.

[clueless]

Are people actually discussing the NAM for this region after last year?

 

Yes. We are an equal opportunity board.

[mitchnick]

now this is why we follow the NAM    lol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[WhiteoutMD]

that winter plain sucked if you liked snow; I was soooo sick of seeing white boogers fall from the sky by the time FEB hit I wanted to scream

I always remember that winter because I worked on the grounds crew at the Naval Academy and we had an 18 wheeler deliver salt get stuck. We had to unload it by had bucket brigade style because everything was frozen. We had to use the salt under the tires for him to get going again.  When we finished I couldn't walk because my back gave out.  Now when my back acts up I think of that winter that's what caused my back to act up now   

[jnis]

remember the frigid day after the storm well....had to walk 9 blocks in Baltimore City to court only to find out the judge couldn't make it in so I walked back on St. Paul Street with a nice fetch all the way up and back

Do you remember the rolling brown outs as the power grid began to reach overload. Schools were out close to two weeks that year. 

[mitchnick]

Do you remember the rolling brown outs as the power grid began to reach overload. Schools were out close to two weeks that year. 

we didn't have them here, but the schools were closed like forever

[yoda]

FWIW, dewpoints are still in the teens at hr 84... so there may still be a lil more dewpoint depression cooling