yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 In 2012 there were at least 20 members and a control so he's missing half of them. Looking at the NOAA site to me it looks like Alan has lumped ice pellets in with snow so those probabilities look high. That is why I said snow and sleet accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Barely snow at 96, but very nice 0.25+ QPF area across N VA and DC. Temps look like 29/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Definitely colder and wetter when it counts. Looks like another okv bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Definitely colder and wetter when it counts. Looks like another okv bullseye Pushing deeper, colder air down into my hood.. that should mean a little something up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Am I crazy to think we have pretty good model consensus right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Am I crazy to think we have pretty good model consensus right now? With a few outliers, it's been crazy steady with the overall setup for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Am I crazy to think we have pretty good model consensus right now? I would agree with that, its an argument among models now of how much of what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Am I crazy to think we have pretty good model consensus right now? No, you can also tell that by looking at the 500h ensemble package from 12 and look at how closely the old spaghetti lines are to each other. About as good as you can get at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I would agree with that, its an argument among models now of how much of what Right. I think when the CAD ends will be a big source of uncertainty. Also, those front end precip amounts are going to important for both me down in CHO and the DCA folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 18z looks like a snow sounding to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 No, you can also tell that by looking at the 500h ensemble package from 12 and look at how closely the old spaghetti lines are to each other. About as good as you can get at that time range. Thanks for the confirmation Wes, Bob and yoda. A nice change of pace from the last couple winters. Of course, now 0z will go off the reservation probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 No, you can also tell that by looking at the 500h ensemble package from 12 and look at how closely the old spaghetti lines are to each other. About as good as you can get at that time range. Unless there are large changes (could be), you can almost make a forecast now that is as deterministic as the one Saturday....which is to say either forecast will be chock full of hedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Put another run in the plus file. It's a good one. 1-2" around and just west of the cities by 18z sunday then pings, pongs, and glazes. Temps still in the 20's for most at that time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 18z GFS has the trailing wave on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Verbatim is a little more bullish with snow dca and immediate west burbs. Like .35 or so all snow. I kinda doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 down south at 132hrs? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=132ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_132_700_rh_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 18z looks like a snow sounding to me. could be..I think we will see CAD show up more and more in the mid levels..this run is markedly better than last night's bad one in terms of that THis is a great panel for NW VA 1pm sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Pretty nice set of 18z sunday panels: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 down south at 132hrs? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=132ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_132_700_rh_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M yeah..we get like an inch or so during the day Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 yeah..we get like an inch or so during the day Tuesday time for improvement on that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Nice tail end wave on the GFS. 0.3-0.4" qpf. 18z happy hour is a roaring success I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 yeah..we get like an inch or so during the day Tuesday Nice tail end wave on the GFS. 0.3-0.4" qpf. 18z happy hour is a roaring success I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 18z is nice.. and that trailing wave too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Nice tail end wave on the GFS. 0.3-0.4" qpf. 18z happy hour is a roaring success I'd say. Been kinda fun watching that sneaky wave. It's a dc-balt snowbullseye of 1 maybe 2 if you slantstick. I love happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Been kinda fun watching that sneaky wave. It's a dc-balt snowbullseye of 1 maybe 2 if you slantstick. I love happy hour. we haven't seen one of those come to fruition in I really don't know how long.....gotta be many years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 we haven't seen one of those come to fruition in I really don't know how long.....gotta be many years I'm super stoked that the sunday thing hasn't gone down in flames of depair and sadness. I've been feelin it for days. Tuesday would be a small nightcap of small batch bourbon. If immediate burbs walk out of next week with 2-4 on the tally then Dec is already a major success. Not saying I'm expecting it but it isn't out of the realm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 not quite all but most of this is snow that falls after 138 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=150ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_150_precip_p12.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'm super stoked that the sunday thing hasn't gone down in flames of depair and sadness. I've been feelin it for days. Tuesday would be a small nightcap of small batch bourbon. If immediate burbs walk out of next week with 2-4 on the tally then Dec is already a major success. Not saying I'm expecting it but it isn't out of the realm either. I just wish it would have held off until later on Sunday as I have/had plans on going to SBY for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I just wish it would have held off until later on Sunday as I have/had plans on going to SBY for the day Now you are getting just downright greedy, have possibly our best event since Jan 2011 here and you want to also pick the start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Really a nice burst of moderate snow showing up on Sunday afternoon. Most of us would be happy if this run verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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