Ian Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Am I seeing dew points in the -15's for Sunday morning? Or am I miss reading that? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Off-topic but not liking the EURO LR depiction compared to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'd guess there will be some cooling as the precip arrives though I wouldn't go with the coldest guidance for now. Winds end up with a marine component by 12z on the Euro so hard to be totally confident it stays super cold. I don't see the cooling during the day on the Euro maps I have. I'm mostly focused on DC and the immediate surrounds. Definitely easier to stay cold further west of course. yeah...we suck at weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I know Wxbell seems overdone but it shows 4.5" for BWI with the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Thanks Ian. I thought that had to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 What is the link for the GEFS member outputs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 the euro barely shows any rain...by the time it warms..the precip is gone but Monday does torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I am not as worried about ground temps as others (perhaps foolishly). - We are in the 30s by 10pm Friday.....It is december and the sun is useless No disagreement from me about the stupid sun debate. But if you are dealing with slushy/wet/crunchy foundation and light precip rates, glazing will be confined to non-pavements mostly. So, my point was/is that the foundation and darkness, together, could be enough to offset latent heat to produce actual icing on things like sidewalks/less-traveled roads that aren't treated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Wxbell snow /2? just like the Nam Model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 What is the link for the GEFS member outputs? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html This website has "plumes", which are really helpful: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html Plumes for BWI look pretty good of 12z GFS I think. Seems like a fair handful have the tail-end wave on Tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html This website has "plumes", which are really helpful: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html Plumes for BWI look pretty good of 12z GFS I think. Seems like a fair handful have the tail-end wave on Tuesday as well. 2nd one was what I been searching for, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think nearly every GEFS member has some sort of tail-end storm in the Tuesday time frame. A few even really wrap it up into a warm Apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Solid advisory snow event for all of New England with that. Cold air FTW You are in the wrong subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 You are in the wrong subforum. he did that on purpose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 he did that on purpose no he didn't; he had you confused with Damage in Tolland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think nearly every GEFS member has some sort of tail-end storm in the Tuesday time frame. A few even really wrap it up into a warm Apps runner. Op runs keep flashing that potential too. Definitely not a no nevermind yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Not trolling? I hope everyone gets a good event. Just trying to learn as much as possible and that's what I gathered from what I've heard and seen You are in the wrong subforum. Last time. It's ok to post about OUR weather in this forum, even if you aren't from here. But every post you've made here is about SNE weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Using the Raleigh weather maps, the 12z GFS ensembles members and OP had the following through hr 108 (snow and sleet accum): 10 out of the 11 have at least 1" 9 out of the 11 have at least 3" 6 out of the 11 have at least 6" P009 has the least (barely any snow across the CWA) while P005 is a snowstorm (nearing 9" in DCA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Using the Raleigh weather maps, the 12z GFS ensembles members and OP had the following through hr 108 (snow and sleet accum): 10 out of the 11 have at least 1" 9 out of the 11 have at least 3" 6 out of the 11 have at least 6" P009 has the least (barely any snow across the CWA) while P005 is a snowstorm (nearing 9" in DCA) If I had a FB page id post p009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 What I find interesting on the ECMWF and GFS is the mid-level moistening and frontogenesis that comes through in the morning. While the models do not put out much if any QPF then, we certainly are making snow aloft. Does anyone have bufkit/etc. to see if there is decent omega in the snow growth zone early Sunday? GFS shows decent omega 12-15Z on Sunday in the snow growth zone...after that not so much. In fact, at f102 it's not even saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Using the Raleigh weather maps, the 12z GFS ensembles members and OP had the following through hr 108 (snow and sleet accum): 10 out of the 11 have at least 1" 9 out of the 11 have at least 3" 6 out of the 11 have at least 6" P009 has the least (barely any snow across the CWA) while P005 is a snowstorm (nearing 9" in DCA) Those numbers are wacky. Here's a site that uses the NCEP snow from the members. The plumes suggest your probabilities are not Plus there are way more members than 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS shows decent omega 12-15Z on Sunday in the snow growth zone...after that not so much. In fact, at f102 it's not even saturated. Thanks. So basically, it's that vs. the dry air in-place. Sometimes, QPF guidance is terrible in these situations if the frontogen forcing is prolific. Typical forms of lift with typical strengths are probably not going to cut it; but, I always keep an eyebrow up when you've got omega in the SGZ harmlessly passing by without any appreciable QPF. Think back to 2009-10 for the worst-case scenario of QPF-fail in these situations. I'm not so sure this Sunday has the dynamics to pull-off something even close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 fwiw, 18z NAM at 84 hrs has the 0 and -10C 850 lines further south than 12Z GFS had them at 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 fwiw, 18z NAM at 84 hrs has the 0 and -10C 850 lines further south than 12Z GFS had them at 90 hrs It also looks a heck of a lot drier at the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It also looks a heck of a lot drier at the time frame. Thats what helps the Temps get lower....clearing IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Those numbers are wacky. Here's a site that uses the NCEP snow from the members. The plumes suggest your probabilities are not Baltimore,MD-ptype_Dec_8.png Plus there are way more members than 11. I only used the Raleigh maps Wes, in which there are only 10 members and the OP on the GEFS panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS shows decent omega 12-15Z on Sunday in the snow growth zone...after that not so much. In fact, at f102 it's not even saturated. perfect...that is when we need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The 18z GFS is quite a bit drier with the Friday system. Not sure that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I only used the Raleigh maps Wes, in which there are only 10 members and the OP on the GEFS panel In 2012 there were at least 20 members and a control so he's missing half of them. Looking at the NOAA site to me it looks like Alan has lumped ice pellets in with snow so those probabilities look high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 850 further sw in va @ 84 than 90 @ 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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