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The "What To Title The Storm?" Thread - Dec 8-9


stormtracker

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I think the big takeaway from the last 2 runs of euro is how long the CAD holds and even strengthens as we go through the day.  It doesn't peak early and then retreat.  IF we see surface CAD improve as we get closer as the models pick it up better it is possible we will also see more damming in the mid levels a thus longer until we go all frz rain or  rain

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I think the big takeaway from the last 2 runs of euro is how long the CAD holds and even strengthens as we go through the day.  It doesn't peak early and then retreat.  IF we see surface CAD improve as we get closer as the models pick it up better it is possible we will also see more damming in the mid levels a thus longer until we go all frz rain or  rain

 

Maybe the weenie rule wrt CAD is actually going to save us this time....closer in, better/stronger.

 

I'm glad the Euro is on board for at least an inch or two around these parts.    

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Looks like everyone gets 0.25-0.5" on new ECMWF before 00z Monday (this is when things are too warm, except for maybe HGR). Everyone from the cities and NW stays 32 or below at 2m until sometime between 00z-06z.

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I think the big takeaway from the last 2 runs of euro is how long the CAD holds and even strengthens as we go through the day.  It doesn't peak early and then retreat.  IF we see surface CAD improve as we get closer as the models pick it up better it is possible we will also see more damming in the mid levels a thus longer until we go all frz rain or  rain

Seems to be trending that way.  Oddly the Canadian has been the most consistent on the strength of the CAD sig.

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I think the big takeaway from the last 2 runs of euro is how long the CAD holds and even strengthens as we go through the day.  It doesn't peak early and then retreat.  IF we see surface CAD improve as we get closer as the models pick it up better it is possible we will also see more damming in the mid levels a thus longer until we go all frz rain or  rain

 

This happened last night too...look at the 32 degree contour..very good sign..at the very least it holds all Sunday afternoon

 

1pm Sunday

 

post-9749-0-99350800-1386181747_thumb.pn

 

 

7pm Sunday

 

post-9749-0-09381500-1386181762_thumb.pn

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It's about 1-2 warmer at the sfc than 0z at all times Sunday on weatherbell but still cold. Pretty borderline IMBY probably.. the raw numbers generally seem to run too cold from all models at range. 

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It's about 1-2 warmer at the sfc than 0z at all times Sunday on weatherbell but still cold. Pretty borderline IMBY probably.. the raw numbers generally seem to run too cold from all models at range. 

 

the nowcast thread is going to burn the servers if these trends continue. We can track the changeover by the millisecond. 

 

I'm not too worried about surface temps. I just want to maximize the modest front end shot and then not worry about much once I hear pings and then then water running down the downspouts. 

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This happened last night too...look at the 32 degree contour..very good sign..at the very least it holds all Sunday afternoon

 

1pm Sunday

 

attachicon.gif18zeuro.PNG

 

 

7pm Sunday

 

attachicon.gif0zeuro.PNG

But the 850 warm pretty fast so this still looks more like sleet and freezing rain than snow.  Looks to me that the euro gives about and inch or snow assuming the 800mb temps stay cold enough (which is far from certain).  I hate ice but it looks like the euro does not like me as cold as most of the rest of you guys.

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Euro is a decent snow event for just about everyone. Nice.

 

It is a good frozen event..snow is a wildcard depending where you live...I doubt I am snow when 850's are like -0.7....there will be a warm nose..If precip can come in early...say 4 to 6 am, I think most of us are going to get accumulating snow with significant amounts in OKV/MRB, and lesser for me...1/2" - 2"

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But the 850 warm pretty fast so this still looks more like sleet and freezing rain than snow.  Looks to me that the euro gives about and inch or snow assuming the 800mb temps stay cold enough (which is far from certain).  I hate ice but it looks like the euro does not like me as cold as most of the rest of you guys.

 

you are right, but I only posted the later panels...The precip comes in around 6am...

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The annoying thing at this range is that we cannot tell how much QPF we kill on IP on the ECMWF. Clearly, 1000-500 thickness is around 546 and 850mb temps are <=0°C, but raw soundings would be nice!

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the nowcast thread is going to burn the servers if these trends continue. We can track the changeover by the millisecond. 

 

I'm not too worried about surface temps. I just want to maximize the modest front end shot and then not worry about much once I hear pings and then then water running down the downspouts. 

Well, if CAD continues to be better analyzed temps could still go down I suppose.  Still, at 0z you're ~32 and below from 95 and NW.  Temps as is still seem kinda borderline everywhere for a BIG ice event, but anything wintry is a problem around here.

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Well, if CAD continues to be better analyzed temps could still go down I suppose.  Still, at 0z you're ~32 and below from 95 and NW.  Temps as is still seem kinda borderline everywhere for a BIG ice event, but anything wintry is a problem around here.

 

I don't think anyone east of a line from westminster to jyo has much to worry about ice wise. Maybe a pretty glaze for a time but hardly anything bendy. jmho

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