nflwxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 850 line retreats to the m/d line at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Precip looks good at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Kind of looks a bit drier at 102. Drier than the GFS or drier than the 00z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 850 line retreats to the m/d line at 108. Snowfall map shows 3-4 inches around DCA/IAD before then. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 1-2 verbatim unless stupid warm layer above 850 is further north than I think. Precip is more strung out but the front wave looks like about .3 areawide mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Drier than the GFS or drier than the 00z run? GFS, I should say. I'm getting dry slotted here, but DCA and company looks to do well with frozen on the EURO. The sfc is cold through 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think the big takeaway from the last 2 runs of euro is how long the CAD holds and even strengthens as we go through the day. It doesn't peak early and then retreat. IF we see surface CAD improve as we get closer as the models pick it up better it is possible we will also see more damming in the mid levels a thus longer until we go all frz rain or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think the big takeaway from the last 2 runs of euro is how long the CAD holds and even strengthens as we go through the day. It doesn't peak early and then retreat. IF we see surface CAD improve as we get closer as the models pick it up better it is possible we will also see more damming in the mid levels a thus longer until we go all frz rain or rain Maybe the weenie rule wrt CAD is actually going to save us this time....closer in, better/stronger. I'm glad the Euro is on board for at least an inch or two around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Agreed Matt, I'm still 29 at 108 and wnwxlvr is 26. DCA around 31ish. Good trends with surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks like everyone gets 0.25-0.5" on new ECMWF before 00z Monday (this is when things are too warm, except for maybe HGR). Everyone from the cities and NW stays 32 or below at 2m until sometime between 00z-06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Agreed Matt, I'm still 29 at 108 and wnwxlvr is 26. DCA around 31ish. Good trends with surface temps. What time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think the big takeaway from the last 2 runs of euro is how long the CAD holds and even strengthens as we go through the day. It doesn't peak early and then retreat. IF we see surface CAD improve as we get closer as the models pick it up better it is possible we will also see more damming in the mid levels a thus longer until we go all frz rain or rain Seems to be trending that way. Oddly the Canadian has been the most consistent on the strength of the CAD sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 What time period? 00z SUN aka hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Maybe the weenie rule wrt CAD is actually going to save us this time....closer in, better/stronger. I'm glad the Euro is on board for at least an inch or two around these parts. That's not a weenie rule, IMO. It isn't uncommon at all to see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Drier than the GFS or drier than the 00z run? It's a hair drier than 0z but it's pretty good all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 What time period? We stay below freezing through all daylight hours it appears. Good run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Thru 126, DCA is sitting at .1" QPF less than 00z. And the precip looks done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think the big takeaway from the last 2 runs of euro is how long the CAD holds and even strengthens as we go through the day. It doesn't peak early and then retreat. IF we see surface CAD improve as we get closer as the models pick it up better it is possible we will also see more damming in the mid levels a thus longer until we go all frz rain or rain This happened last night too...look at the 32 degree contour..very good sign..at the very least it holds all Sunday afternoon 1pm Sunday 7pm Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro is a decent snow event for just about everyone. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's about 1-2 warmer at the sfc than 0z at all times Sunday on weatherbell but still cold. Pretty borderline IMBY probably.. the raw numbers generally seem to run too cold from all models at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's about 1-2 warmer at the sfc than 0z at all times Sunday on weatherbell but still cold. Pretty borderline IMBY probably.. the raw numbers generally seem to run too cold from all models at range. the nowcast thread is going to burn the servers if these trends continue. We can track the changeover by the millisecond. I'm not too worried about surface temps. I just want to maximize the modest front end shot and then not worry about much once I hear pings and then then water running down the downspouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This happened last night too...look at the 32 degree contour..very good sign..at the very least it holds all Sunday afternoon 1pm Sunday 18zeuro.PNG 7pm Sunday 0zeuro.PNG But the 850 warm pretty fast so this still looks more like sleet and freezing rain than snow. Looks to me that the euro gives about and inch or snow assuming the 800mb temps stay cold enough (which is far from certain). I hate ice but it looks like the euro does not like me as cold as most of the rest of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro is a decent snow event for just about everyone. Nice. It is a good frozen event..snow is a wildcard depending where you live...I doubt I am snow when 850's are like -0.7....there will be a warm nose..If precip can come in early...say 4 to 6 am, I think most of us are going to get accumulating snow with significant amounts in OKV/MRB, and lesser for me...1/2" - 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 But the 850 warm pretty fast so this still looks more like sleet and freezing rain than snow. Looks to me that the euro gives about and inch or snow assuming the 800mb temps stay cold enough (which is far from certain). I hate ice but it looks like the euro does not like me as cold as most of the rest of you guys. you are right, but I only posted the later panels...The precip comes in around 6am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The annoying thing at this range is that we cannot tell how much QPF we kill on IP on the ECMWF. Clearly, 1000-500 thickness is around 546 and 850mb temps are <=0°C, but raw soundings would be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 the nowcast thread is going to burn the servers if these trends continue. We can track the changeover by the millisecond. I'm not too worried about surface temps. I just want to maximize the modest front end shot and then not worry about much once I hear pings and then then water running down the downspouts. Well, if CAD continues to be better analyzed temps could still go down I suppose. Still, at 0z you're ~32 and below from 95 and NW. Temps as is still seem kinda borderline everywhere for a BIG ice event, but anything wintry is a problem around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 you are right, but I only posted the later panels...The precip comes in around 6am... correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the euro typically come in a tad warmer in the mid levels in general with setups like this? If so, being on the tightrope with this run isn't as alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 I know Ji got some heat earlier for saying this, but around here, 31/32 won't cut it for a decent ice storm, especially if the preceding days weren't frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 you are right, but I only posted the later panels...The precip comes in around 6am... precip is all pretty light thru 18z at least per the hi res across the area.. ~0.1" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Well, if CAD continues to be better analyzed temps could still go down I suppose. Still, at 0z you're ~32 and below from 95 and NW. Temps as is still seem kinda borderline everywhere for a BIG ice event, but anything wintry is a problem around here. I don't think anyone east of a line from westminster to jyo has much to worry about ice wise. Maybe a pretty glaze for a time but hardly anything bendy. jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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