stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Timing, qpf, and hp placement is all there. Still not much has changed. Very short leads are the only things that can work out the details. All kinds of ptypes in a very small geographic are. A mess to forecast for sure. Happy Hour GFS should be rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 So are we declaring this run good? You and I..yes...Ian just added another chapter to the phail journal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 At the SFC the gfs is a colder run with nice CAD. For Balt NW could be decent snow shot early on and maybe down to DC if rates overcome the warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 So are we declaring this run good? For frozen, sure. For snow, eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 So are we declaring this run good? ask the boss.....JI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 How about us northern folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 For frozen, sure. For snow, eh. Looks like an snow to ice event to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 You and I..yes...Ian just added another chapter to the phail journal.Well early indiciations are the DC area could still reach Ian's 2" criteria. Without that warm layer that would certainly happen this run. We will see if soundings indicate that on future runs. This is a good run though to have a wintry Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Happy Hour GFS should be rockin' Looks like a 3 dirty martini day. With lots of olives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 sure is a lot of precip on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Surface temps don't get above freezing in the cities until around 0z. IAD, but BWI and DCA are straddling already at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 So are we declaring this run good? imo, absolutely We have seen this a fair amount over the years. We get light snow, and as soon as the precip rates pick up we mix with and change to sleet. I think there is a nice window in the early am to get a 1/2"+. I like that idea better than the idea that we are snow once it gets heavier because we offset the warm layer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 sure is a lot of precip on this run Let's see what happens with the area of vorticity exiting the rockies into n tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Through 108, DCA is 0.7 frozen... IAD is 0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Good to see that we're going to get a crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 imo, absolutely We have seen this a fair amount over the years. We get light snow, and as soon as the precip rates pick up we mix with and change to sleet. I think there is a nice window in the early am to get a 1/2"+. I like that idea better than the idea that we are snow once it gets heavier because we offset the warm layer... I know if the rest of the days run's look like this you will be up for the Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 IAD, but BWI and DCA are straddling already at 21z. USA_TMP_2m_105.gif The sounding in Fairfax shows 30 degrees... so the 32 degree line is prob just east of I-95 at 21z. 00z its around BR or so... looks like IAD is right around 32 Its a slow march westward for the 32 degree line between 21z and 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think our back end is in jeopardy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I know if the rest of the days run's look like this you will be up for the Euro tonight. I'm up for the euro almost every night there is a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 imo, absolutely We have seen this a fair amount over the years. We get light snow, and as soon as the precip rates pick up we mix with and change to sleet. I think there is a nice window in the early am to get a 1/2"+. I like that idea better than the idea that we are snow once it gets heavier because we offset the warm layer... My "goal" would be an inch of snow, followed by sleet and then the unfortunate but inevitable change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 imo, absolutely We have seen this a fair amount over the years. We get light snow, and as soon as the precip rates pick up we mix with and change to sleet. I think there is a nice window in the early am to get a 1/2"+. I like that idea better than the idea that we are snow once it gets heavier because we offset the warm layer... Matt, in some instances that is absolutely the case. I agree that heavier rates don't always offset the warn layer, I do think that initial CAD and even some weak CAA could help us. DP depressions will be higher which could more efficiently cool the column. I'm not sure I buy the warm layer 100% yet because its variable from run to run. I think for places like Annapolis, sleet could be more of an issue, but maybe not as much with a flow from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 redskins play at home too, double your trouble lolApologies for the banter, but thats a mess already. But i agree, two messy but wintry games coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 ask the boss.....JI? no..its still too warm. Warmer than GGEM and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think our back end is in jeopardy GFS has the tail-end wave on Tuesday. Sort of stalls it near the VA tidewater. Doesn't throw any precip up our way though. Still worth watching. Several 6z GEFS members had a storm that brought us some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 DT says GFS is COLDER this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 DT says GFS is COLDER this run. its definitely colder but its not as cold yet as the colder models. but a good trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 DT says GFS is COLDER this run. We don't need you to relay DT's obvious analysis to us. 6 people at least have said the very same thing in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS has the tail-end wave on Tuesday. Sort of stalls it near the VA tidewater. Doesn't throw any precip up our way though. Still worth watching. Several 6z GEFS members had a storm that brought us some precip. it had it yesterday at this time but lost it in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 DT says GFS is COLDER this run. Who is this DT fella. That was evident from just looking at the panel outputs, so he's stating the obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 this is the most important storm of my life seriously. I need a confidence boost that we can get winter weather in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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