clueless Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 no worries...if this storm fails...we have more in the pipeline No way Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 at 78hrs on the 12Z run, NAM is only a hair west with the 0 and -10C 850 lines vs. 84 hrs on 6Z, still way better than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Sounds pretty close to the Euro Op at 120 then. Whoa…EVERY Euro ensemble member has >=2" of snow for JYO in the next 10 days? thats what it looks like...this is accumulated snow over the 10 day period. A coastal at the end of the run helps:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 at 78hrs on the 12Z run, NAM is only a hair west with the 0 and -10C 850 lines vs. 84 hrs on 6Z, still way better than GFSDare I say the NAM has a chance to succeed on this one, maybe not fully WRT synoptic evolution, but at least relating to the CAD. NAM has a history of minor success with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 thats what it looks like...this is accumulated snow over the 10 day period. A coastal at the end of the run helps:) Yeah. Granted that WxBell's snow accumulation algorithm was probably designed by JB, but it looks like most of the Euro members give JYO >=2" before 0z on the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 at 78hrs on the 12Z run, NAM is only a hair west with the 0 and -10C 850 lines vs. 84 hrs on 6Z, still way better than GFS 84 has a 1041 H basically right over MSP with 0c 850 line basically straddling the VA/NC line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah. Granted that WxBell's snow accumulation algorithm was probably designed by JB, but it looks like most of the Euro members give JYO >=2" before 0z on the 9th. Yes, they gotta upgrade that thing...I love the graphics, but the actual numbers on their EC snow algorithm really leaves me shaking my head sometimes. It will show snow sometimes where there is a 3000-4000 foot warm layer in the sounding. Its a nice map to look at when there really aren't major ptype issues, but unfortunately there are in most storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 at 78hrs on the 12Z run, NAM is only a hair west with the 0 and -10C 850 lines vs. 84 hrs on 6Z, still way better than GFS Every hair counts with this one. We're relying on the 84 hour NAM. I see nothing but success ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think this will be a fun storm. That's my prediction and I'm sticking with it. CAD love all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Some cold dry air, dew points at -40F at 700 mb over much of VA on 84 NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Some cold dry air, dew points at -40F at 700 mb over much of VA on 84 NAM... cold, dry air in winter is overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 cold, dry air in winter is overrated Maybe we'll get lucky and it'll be windy also.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS back to showing sleet very early Sat morning This should be a better GFS run than last night. 1044 H in NE SD at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS back to showing sleet very early Sat morning This should be a better GFS run than last night. 1044 H in NE SD at 78 faster with the cold air at 60 hrs vs. last 2 runs same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 MUCH better CAD at 93... 0c 850 line down in C NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 MUCH better CAD at 93... 0c 850 line down in C NC Not that far. Southern VA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Not that far. Southern VA though. At 96 it straddles the C VA line Decent QPF in C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Warm layer at 800mb at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks sleety down my way-- making some assumptions on 900mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Warm layer at 800mb at 15z. 102 should be snow... that warm layer is right around 0 though checking soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Mostly sleet to zr for the DC metro on this run. Close though, so nothing can be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Not that far. Southern VA though. Definitely not in NC. Ugh. But it's slightly better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 102 should be snow... that warm layer is right around 0 though checking soundings Might be ok depending on rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Surface temps don't get above freezing in the cities until around 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Probably the whole range of p-types for the cities on this run. Couple hours of snow, several hours of sleet, little freezing rain and then over to rain after 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Definitely not in NC. Ugh. But it's slightly better than 0z I apologize... had 925 on instead of 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Still looks like a really good shot of snow/ice for you guys here before a change to rain in DC roughly 21z-00z...DC would do better than I will up on CT coast verbatim. edit: has that warm layer into DC pretty early so not a lot of snow...but surface temps are plenty cold through the aftn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Timing, qpf, and hp placement is all there. Still not much has changed. Very short leads are the only things that can work out the details. All kinds of ptypes in a very small geographic are. A mess to forecast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks like I am in for extended icing. Great. I want power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 So are we declaring this run good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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