mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 66hrs sweet http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=066ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_066_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Surface below freezing at 00z, with 800mb temps at +5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:39 AM, MN Transplant said: Over to sleet at DCA by 21z. Icy after that as well... DCA 29/30 at 03z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:42 AM, MN Transplant said: Surface below freezing at 00z, with 800mb temps at +5C. warm rain falling from that sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:25 AM, Huffwx said: NAM at 51 looks to be as cold--just waiting on precip to fire up. h85 0c has sagged WELL into NC Meh. We have a DCA-esque precip hole down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:43 AM, Disc said: Meh. We have a DCA-esque precip hole down this way. cold air not entrenched/deep enough so you have less lift going on we know the feeling....for 3 years now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 FRZ RAIN still at DCA at 06z MON... but changeover imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM is a brutal ice storm. 6 hours of snow. 3 hours of sleet. Then 6 hours of ZR out here. Concrete coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 better run than 12z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:45 AM, yoda said: FRZ RAIN still at DCA at 06z MON... but changeover imminent or not... DCA right at 32 at 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:43 AM, Disc said: Meh. We have a DCA-esque precip hole down this way. Yeah, not sure if it's legit. On 12/6/2013 at 2:45 AM, mitchnick said: cold air not entrenched/deep enough so you have less lift going on we know the feeling....for 3 years now Is it that simple? cold air has sunk more south and I have less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:48 AM, yoda said: or not... DCA right at 32 at 09z NAM's got the coastal thing going at 75 hrs which is holding in the cold at the bl http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:46 AM, mitchnick said: better run than 12z and 18z Much better. Wetter. Latest NAM, SREFS, GFS all wetter. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:50 AM, Huffwx said: Yeah, not sure if it's legit. Is it that simple? cold air has sunk more south and I have less qpf Huff, lower levels are cold but it's not deep enough (height-wise I'm talking) but that's just my guess actually, if you look at the sim rad you can see the band with the best lift is north of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 There's our NAM. 1" QPF all frozen through 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Still quite a ways to go before the storm starts, too. Plenty of time for changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:50 AM, mitchnick said: NAM's got the coastal thing going at 75 hrs which is holding in the cold at the bl http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Yup... fascinating sounding at DCA at 84. 900mb is +12 and the surface is 32 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:51 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Much better. Wetter. Latest NAM, SREFS, GFS all wetter. Bring it. Be careful what you ask for, if you get an inch of ice you may not be able to watch the Vikings lowlights Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 that .5" qpf is touching mby http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=069ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_069_precip_p12.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ah nice to see the NAM back to it's usual non dry self Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:52 AM, MN Transplant said: There's our NAM. 1" QPF all frozen through 9z. Ice storm city. As you noted by 21Z the temps (DCA) at 750 was 2C, at 18Z it's only -0.7C so it's advertising a changeover to sleet pretty shortly after 18Z.......19Z maybe if the model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:55 AM, mitchnick said: that .5" qpf is touching mby http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=069ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_069_precip_p12.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L come to think of it, it's a 40S special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:52 AM, mitchnick said: Huff, lower levels are cold but it's not deep enough (height-wise I'm talking) but that's just my guess actually, if you look at the sim rad you can see the band with the best lift is north of you Haven't seen soundings-- we were getting some snow from prior runs. How deep can it get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:53 AM, ravensrule said: Be careful what you ask for, if you get an inch of ice you may not be able to watch the Vikings lowlights Sunday night. Wouldn't it be something that if by Sunday evening we had a WSW that verified and a Ravens win to go above .500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 "Real-deal" look to this; I haven't been this freaking excited since something like 2010. This has the look of repeatable and stable modeling. Far freaking out, dudes. The NAM presents the CAD as robust and stubborn. I hope Home Depot still has better quality ice melter, my lawn and cat don't want sodium chloride ice melt. The good ice melter is going to fly off the shelves if it hasn't already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:58 AM, HighStakes said: Wouldn't it be something that if by Sunday evening we had a WSW that verified and a Ravens win to go above .500 That plus a Bungles loss would put me in heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 2:56 AM, usedtobe said: Ice storm city. Is this a Dean Koontz title or is it a forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I would imagine watches/warning will go up with tomorrows 12Z's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looks like our area is jackpot for this storm for the entire east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 On 12/6/2013 at 3:03 AM, clskinsfan said: I would imagine watches/warning will go up with tomorrows 12Z's? Yes we discussed that earlier, and the consensus was that a watch would be put up tomorrow afternoon and then Saturday it would either go to a warning or a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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