TSSN+ Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:07 PM, snow. said: People are going to like the 18z GFS High is anchored in. Cold air locked. Hopefully high continues to hold in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:09 PM, Bob Chill said: It's like happy hour after work. And then the 0z runs are when real life problems are pondered as you fall asleep every night. ha...so true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:09 PM, TSSN+ said: High is anchored in. Cold air locked. Hopefully high continues to hold in future runs. It will be there again in 24 hours. The following 18 hours are a spiral of devastating despair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:09 PM, snow. said: I'm out to 126...people are going to like it Frozen past 21z. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:09 PM, Ian said: Too bad it's the 18z GFS but you bought it yesterday when it showed warm and no frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:14 PM, Ji said: but you bought it yesterday when it showed warm and no frozen that's different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:09 PM, snow. said: I'm out to 126...people are going to like it but in the back of your mind....the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:12 PM, Bob Chill said: It will be there again in 24 hours. The following 18 hours are a spiral of devastating despair Lets hope not. The high seems like it moves across the country at the perfect time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 That closed ull near the maritimes is doing it's job. Really keeps the hp from sliding. And the precip is much faster than the euro. Verbatim the run is eye candy and fools gold but the setup @ h5 is plausible. It's not a fantasy. The front end could be more frozen than the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:14 PM, Ian said: that's different On 12/3/2013 at 10:14 PM, Ji said: but in the back of your mind....the euro 18z GFS run is like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:19 PM, snow. said: 18z GFS run is like the NAM We have discussed this ad nauseam for years and it is simply not true. DTK has confirmed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:19 PM, snow. said: 18z GFS run is like the NAM Matt, 2nd wave...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:18 PM, Bob Chill said: That closed ull near the maritimes is doing it's job. Really keeps the hp from sliding. And the precip is much faster than the euro. Verbatim the run is eye candy and fools gold but the setup @ h5 is plausible. It's not a fantasy. The front end could be more frozen than the euro shows. we all know the euro will show the 32 degree wedge barely tickling NW VA, as the 850 line jumps from Rockville to Rochester in one panel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Pretty much ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:20 PM, snow. said: we all know the euro will show the 32 degree wedge barely tickling NW VA, as the 850 line jumps from Rockville to Rochester in one panel... what makes the Euro such a bad model around here is those Englishman don't know our climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Say what you want about 18Z GFS, but it is beating the 6 and 12Z runs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:23 PM, TSSN+ said: Say what you want about 18Z GFS, but it is beating the 6 and 12Z runs right now. so the 0Z run will be telling, I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:20 PM, snow. said: we all know the euro will show the 32 degree wedge barely tickling NW VA, as the 850 line jumps from Rockville to Rochester in one panel... tru dat, but I'll follow rule #1 in the weenie creed. hug the snowiest model. Well, except for the cras and dgex. Even weenies can't take those cartoons seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The GFS has a fetish for the Winchester area. The Euro has the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:20 PM, ravensrule said: We have discussed this ad nauseam for years and it is simply not true. DTK has confirmed that.Yeah but real world evidence around here still says the 18z run is often whacked.Could be legit. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The Tuesday event is looking much more tame than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:24 PM, Ian said: Yeah but real world evidence around here still says the 18z run is often whacked. Could be legit. Who knows. Not according to the verification numbers posted above. In previous years you may be somewhat right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:26 PM, ravensrule said: Not according to the verification numbers posted above. In previous years you may be somewhat right.Most mets don't even know what that means so I'm not going to pretend to either. I don't necessarily think the 18z sucks more than any other runs on the whole but around here it seems to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:20 PM, mitchnick said: Matt, 2nd wave...? kind of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:26 PM, ravensrule said: Not according to the verification numbers posted above. In previous years you may be somewhat right. problem is though, that is a score for the entire Hemisphere so who knows whether which run does better for this area and whether it changes with each run (which is what I would expect) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:28 PM, snow. said: kind of do you have SV? and it seems fair to say they are the fastest, at least by a couple minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:28 PM, mitchnick said: problem is though, that is a score for the entire Hemisphere so who knows whether which run does better for this area and whether it changes with each run (which is what I would expect) Definitely true, but it would seem unlikely that it would always be the weeniest run for our area all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 10:29 PM, mitchnick said: do you have SV? and it seems fair to say they are the fastest, at least by a couple minutes? yes...I think WSI and some of the pro services are a smidge faster but they are not priced for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 18Z has a vortex touching MN at 150 hrs and 12Z had it it over Hudsons Bay at the same time this run may even get colder than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 2nd wave is like a tenth at best but all snow. Inch or less around the area but not impressive. That's ok though. I'm going to be tired from shoveling 5" with .25 of ice on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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