stormtracker Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Inspired by Ian. Let's talk about our impending Cold Rain/Ice/Snow/Graupel threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 5:26 PM, Scuddz said: and thursdays warmth no. anyways -- 12z sounding for Westminster snow on the backside of the front early Saturday morning (06-09z) snow from 15z to 21z sunday then snow/ice rain by 00z sunday snow 09z-18z on 12/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 "Saturday morning flurries, Sunday slop and Tuesday powder" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 So, we are combining the two storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 That's enough title talk I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Let's not be too specific as we really have no specifics to talk about other than that we are as clueless as the models at this point! LOL! Ambiguity - At least there is a "100% chance of Weather!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Every thread should have a sounding. Here is DCA at 168, not long after precip starts on the 10th. edit - Actually, this is an excellent example of a sounding where the 1000-500mb thickness is way over the 540 that we like to eyeball, but the sounding is frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'll take anything that will whiten everything. A bit of glaze on top would be icing on the cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 More 12z GEFS members with a snow/ice solution for Sunday than even 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Sorry, i thought this thread was to find a name for the storm not discuss it. WxUSAF, it's an interesting change here. Better confluence to the north is holding the hp in place now. Previous colder runs showed a 50/50ish feature. It's a great trend at this stage because heights to the north are getting better resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Ok, let's focus on the potential event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 6:03 PM, stormtracker said: Ok, let's focus on the potential event now. Dangerous to start this thread before Dr. No appears in about 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 6:12 PM, snow. said: Dangerous to start this thread before Dr. No appears in about 10 minutes I'm gonna say the euro being wet is a tad more important than the amount of and length of cold at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 6:01 PM, Bob Chill said: Sorry, i thought this thread was to find a name for the storm not discuss it. WxUSAF, it's an interesting change here. Better confluence to the north is holding the hp in place now. Previous colder runs showed a 50/50ish feature. It's a great trend at this stage because heights to the north are getting better resolved. look at these two images @ 500 0z 12z Big difference up north and one of the factors for a colder run as you say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 According to 12z GFS ensemble members and the OP(accumulated snow depth) at 132: 9 of the 11 have at least 1" 7 of the 11 have at least 3" 4 of the 11 have at least 6" I am going to assume that sleet accumulation is included in the maps EDIT: I see WxUSAF ninja'd me some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 6:12 PM, snow. said: Dangerous to start this thread before Dr. No appears in about 10 minutes don't worry, I think Wes is busy today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 5:58 PM, WxUSAF said: More 12z GEFS members with a snow/ice solution for Sunday than even 6z. Just had enough time to take a look at them myself. They look better than they did when I looked last time, to my weenie eyes. That 168 hr stuff is a shocker. Has it been there all along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 6:20 PM, yoda said: According to 12z GFS ensemble members and the OP(accumulated snow depth) at 132: 9 of the 11 have at least 1" 7 of the 11 have at least 3" 4 of the 11 have at least 6" I am going to assume that sleet accumulation is included in the maps I'm gonna guess yesterday's ensembles that showed warm rain are more correct than these ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro thermals are similar up to 132, but it is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro freebies aren't showing me much, who's got the pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 6:24 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That 168 hr stuff is a shocker. Has it been there all along? No…0z and 6z consolidated the energy into a stronger/bigger Sunday cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro slightly colder at the surface (by a degree) at 126 and 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Cities above 32 by 138, big ice storm going on NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 So I assume Euro is slower than the GFS with precip onset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 6:29 PM, TSSN+ said: Cities above 32 by 138, big ice storm going on NW. temps are pretty marginal everywhere for a big icestorm. fairly dry around dc. edit: by dry i mean .5ish give or take a quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 6:31 PM, WxUSAF said: So I assume Euro is slower than the GFS with precip onset? yea, definitely. @ 120 precip is still down near RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yes, the Euro is about 6-12 hours slower with the initial onset. The CAD does not seem to linger as long as it's previous run. Precip amounts cut down drastically. Looks like only 0.5-0.75 region wide. About 50% at DCA is frozen based on glancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 First wave is kinda meh south of 40N. But it may have more to come like the GFS looking sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Cold not as extreme as the GFS at 168, but that isn't a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On 12/3/2013 at 6:37 PM, MN Transplant said: Cold not as extreme as the GFS at 168, but that isn't a shock. the second wave sucks unless you like 40s falling to the 30s and rain. fricken euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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