BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NAM really shears out the clipper...retrograding low kills it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GFS for Clipper System Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 at best it's going to be light snow for md. Nothing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 at best it's going to be light snow for md. Nothing much. how can you say that I mean, predict the model? its pure luck if you're right, you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 how can you say that I mean, predict the model? its pure luck if you're right, you know I,m not predicting the model, just saying what it shows, to me. If I,m wrong so be it. What does it show to you??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Clippers can be really tough to predict 3-4 days in advance for us. Usually comes down to radar trends the day before and nowcasting unless it is a potent clipper. We just never know how much will make it over the mountains with a weaker clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I,m not predicting the model, just saying what it shows, to me. If I,m wrong so be it. What does it show to you??? it now shows a hit for MD exactly how much, who knows because the model hasn't finished its run and when you posted it wasn't very far along EDIT: I assume you are talking about Christmas and not the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Pretty consistent on the 18z GFS with this storm...I think its a little bit farther south tho? My high speed is down so I'm tethering..can't really load up the pages to compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yea, it's a little bit south of the 12z run. Pretty consistent on the 18z GFS with this storm...I think its a little bit farther south tho? My high speed is down so I'm tethering..can't really load up the pages to compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Pretty consistent on the 18z GFS with this storm...I think its a little bit farther south tho? My high speed is down so I'm tethering..can't really load up the pages to compare yeah its south, but we're still on track God knows these computers can't figure out 6 days in advance when the 5H Low will close off it does it this run just like last, albeit a little slower so much less qpf at least we have something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 imho, if you look at the upper levels, there really should be a lot more qpf than what its spitting out this run in places from central VA on north of course,maybe there's more to come after 162hrs, which is where I am limiting my comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 it now shows a hit for MD exactly how much, who knows because the model hasn't finished its run and when you posted it wasn't very far along EDIT: I assume you are talking about Christmas and not the clipper no talking about the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yeah, still has it..but swings it out a little farther east when coming up the coast. Not too much to worry about at this stage of the game. 0z will probably show a monster again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Nice run. We are gonna need that trough to go Negative faster to get this baby on the benchmark however. Either way, at this range, the H5 look is more than a impressive signal for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 no talking about the clipper. sorry so we agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Nice run. We are gonna need that trough to go Negative faster to get this baby on the benchmark however. Either way, at this range, the H5 look is more than a impressive signal for a snowstorm. yep, very impressive right across the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 imho, if you look at the upper levels, there really should be a lot more qpf than what its spitting out this run in places from central VA on north of course,maybe there's more to come after 162hrs, which is where I am limiting my comments Yeah, thats what I was thinking, but I'll defer to wes et al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 man what an odd map 0c line in the bahamas -3 to miami +12c to canadian border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 sorry so we agree no problem. I guess so. I,,m not good at this , as you are very astute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 MA love on the GFS Christmas Day storm and New Year's Eve/Day http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_pcp300336_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Where are the ensembles IRT the Christmas system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This is not a hallucination, but it may not be real..... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_slp_018m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This is not a hallucination, but it may not be real..... http://www.nco.ncep....uc_slp_018m.gif Link is not working, What is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Link is not working, What is it? Its the RUC, the latest runs are closing the low at 850 closer to coast and throwing precip back over NJ reaching or nearly reaching NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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