Winter '13/'14 Banter/Complaint Thread Part 1

[michsnowfreak]

I better order my keg for my annual new years party...didn't realize the month was over...

[wisconsinwx]

 

Well it does seem that a lot of posters are cancelling the rest of the month, which is almost unforeseen (except for Alek) with more than three weeks left to go in the month.

[Harry]

Well it does seem that a lot of posters are cancelling the rest of the month, which is almost unforeseen (except for Alek) with more than three weeks left to go in the month.

 

 

 

I am not doing that but it would not be a bad call to make all things considered. I say that because the EPO cannot stay negative forever and the chances are it relaxes after next week. The question is for how long? Good luck figuring that out. If we follow some of the top analogs then it will be a brief relaxation and then back to colder and perhaps snowier. Other analogs say no go till January.. More importantly no matter warm or cold we are not getting the desired storm track and don't look to with this cold blast and the last one etc and yes that should bother a few. It could change but history says if it does it wont be till January or later and then what? For here December is the snowiest month of winter with 16.9" so yeah the hole is being dug and with not much on the horizon for the next 7-10 days we may reach mid month with 1-3 ( depends on how generous the lake decides to be next week ) if we are lucky. If the relaxation lasts a week or two December will be shot. Atleast here it will be. Again not saying it will but at the moment the deck is stacked.

[wisconsinwx]

I am not doing that but it would not be a bad call to make all things considered. I say that because the EPO cannot stay negative forever and the chances are it relaxes after next week. The question is for how long? Good luck figuring that out. If we follow some of the top analogs then it will be a brief relaxation and then back to colder and perhaps snowier. Other analogs say no go till January.. More importantly no matter warm or cold we are not getting the desired storm track and don't look to with this cold blast and the last one etc and yes that should bother a few. It could change but history says if it does it wont be till January or later and then what? For here December is the snowiest month of winter with 16.9" so yeah the hole is being dug and with not much on the horizon for the next 7-10 days we may reach mid month with 1-3 ( depends on how generous the lake decides to be next week ) if we are lucky. If the relaxation lasts a week or two December will be shot. Atleast here it will be. Again not saying it will but at the moment the deck is stacked.

 

I don't understand how we're not getting a good storm track?  We had one Western Lakes Cutter, an overrunning system in the OV, and now a weak Central Lakes Gulf Low.  How much more variety of subforum tracks can you get?  Sure, there are winners and losers, and it makes sense for those who haven't had luck so far to be very guarded, but it's hard to be pessimistic when we have some action in or near the subforum.  Thoughts from other boards and subforums seem to be the SE Ridge will return and may be favorable for the region.  I've read and inferred as much on Accuweather's forum and the Mid-Atlantic/New England subforums here.  At least I think there's a chance of a storm in the December 15-17 timeframe, and it could be a big one.  Some of the ensembles have been hinting it.  The GEM shows it this 00z run, so it's not outlandish to think.

[Hoosier]

Related to Harry's point...check out these maps.  Is it a sign of things to come this winter?   At least the OV will be getting help in the near term.

 

 

 

 

 

[cyclone77]

Unfortunately recent trends are definitely leaning towards another ****ty December.  That would be 3 terrible Decembers in a row if this one ends up ****ting the bed.  Hopefully as we head towards Christmas things improve.  If we can turn it around over the last 1/3 of the month we could still save the month from being another abomination like the last 2 Decembers.  We've had some great Decembers prior to 11-12, so a crappy stretch wasn't too surprising.  3 in a row though would be more than a little asinine. 

[Harry]

I don't understand how we're not getting a good storm track?  We had one Western Lakes Cutter, an overrunning system in the OV, and now a weak Central Lakes Gulf Low.  How much more variety of subforum tracks can you get?  Sure, there are winners and losers, and it makes sense for those who haven't had luck so far to be very guarded, but it's hard to be pessimistic when we have some action in or near the subforum.  Thoughts from other boards and subforums seem to be the SE Ridge will return and may be favorable for the region.  I've read and inferred as much on Accuweather's forum and the Mid-Atlantic/New England subforums here.  At least I think there's a chance of a storm in the December 15-17 timeframe, and it could be a big one.  Some of the ensembles have been hinting it.  The GEM shows it this 00z run, so it's not outlandish to think.

 

YES the storm track has been everywhere EXCEPT the track MOST of us need and or those across N.IL/se WI, S.MI, and N.IN.. Everything has been either in southern sections are far nw. We have yet to see a single system take the preferred track WE NEED. Many of winters past when this happened up into alot of December it remained that way for the rest of winter with ONLY  a break or two unless we torched early on which we haven't.. Surface lows tracking to Chicago/WI or KY/Eastcoast does very little for most unless ala you are in the far nw MN/N.WI/N.MI or near and south of I70 into much of Ohio except the nw part of the state.

 

Again all i am saying is so far everything that can go wrong HAS and more often then not ( Yes it could turn around and of any winter offering that hope this would be it but it is not a given )  the rest of winter was much the same.

 

You can do what you like but i refuse to hold out hope for something that may never come. Thus i'll believe it when i see it is how i'll be playing it. Again a few of the top analogs for this winter did suggest it gets better in January but again we'll see and still even a outside shot at something this month if the EPO only relaxes ( goes +positive ) briefly for a few days. No it is NOT SHOT but the deck is stacked as far as this month goes.

[wisconsinwx]

YES the storm track has been everywhere EXCEPT the track MOST of us need and or those across N.IL/se WI, S.MI, and N.IN.. Everything has been either in southern sections are far nw. We have yet to see a single system take the preferred track WE NEED. Many of winters past when this happened up into alot of December it remained that way for the rest of winter with ONLY  a break or two unless we torched early on which we haven't.. Surface lows tracking to Chicago/WI or KY/Eastcoast does very little for most unless ala you are in the far nw MN/N.WI/N.MI or near and south of I70 into much of Ohio except the nw part of the state.

 

Again all i am saying is so far everything that can go wrong HAS and more often then not ( Yes it could turn around and of any winter offering that hope this would be it but it is not a given )  the rest of winter was much the same.

 

You can do what you like but i refuse to hold out hope for something that may never come. Thus i'll believe it when i see it is how i'll be playing it. Again a few of the top analogs for this winter did suggest it gets better in January but again we'll see and still even a outside shot at something this month if the EPO only relaxes ( goes +positive ) briefly for a few days.

 

I understand but that smacks of IMBYism which most people on this board scoff at.  Individual storm tracks vary, and given the storm track is very close to favorable in a lot of cases, and also given the active fall we had which tends to give a precursor to the general winter tracks/pattern, I'm choosing a more positive approach this early winter, misguided or not.

[Hoosier]

Unfortunately recent trends are definitely leaning towards another ****ty December.  That would be 3 terrible Decembers in a row if this one ends up ****ting the bed.  Hopefully as we head towards Christmas things improve.  If we can turn it around over the last 1/3 of the month we could still save the month from being another abomination like the last 2 Decembers.  We've had some great Decembers prior to 11-12, so a crappy stretch wasn't too surprising.  3 in a row though would be more than a little asinine. 

 

The difference with this one compared to the other two you mentioned is that at least there is cold air this time.  The previous two Decembers were quite warm overall.  I guess having the cold with not a lot of snow might actually be worse though. 

[snowstormcanuck]

I understand but that smacks of IMBYism which most people on this board scoff at.  Individual storm tracks vary, and given the storm track is very close to favorable in a lot of cases, and also given the active fall we had which tends to give a precursor to the general winter tracks/pattern, I'm choosing a more positive approach this early winter, misguided or not.

 

Doesn't the map Hoosier posted kind of dispel this point? Aside from that mid November severe outbreak it really hasn't been that active of a fall.

[cyclone77]

The difference with this one compared to the other two you mentioned is that at least there is cold air this time.  The previous two Decembers were quite warm overall.  I guess having the cold with not a lot of snow might actually be worse though. 

 

Haha, yeah the cold air this season is definitely a big improvement over the last few Decembers to this point.  Another improvement is at least there have been a few decent systems to track, which is more than we could say at this time last year. 

[wisconsinwx]

Doesn't the map Hoosier posted kind of dispel this point? Aside from that mid November severe outbreak it really hasn't been that active of a fall.

 

Let's see, above average precip in most of Wisconsin and Michigan since October, way above average in the Plains, and since early season winter storms tend to be farther north and west with the location of the jet stream, that should be a decent sign I would think, better than above average in the Northeast and way below average throughout the Great Lakes.

[Harry]

Related to Harry's point...check out these maps.  Is it a sign of things to come this winter?   At least the OV will be getting help in the near term.

 

 

WaterPNormUS.png

 

 

30dPNormUS.png

 

It *could* help us out later on if or when the next -EPO arrives. Storms ( surface lows ) tend to follow the wet zones in winter.

 

I understand but that smacks of IMBYism which most people on this board scoff at.  Individual storm tracks vary, and given the storm track is very close to favorable in a lot of cases, and also given the active fall we had which tends to give a precursor to the general winter tracks/pattern, I'm choosing a more positive approach this early winter, misguided or not.

 

How is it IMBYism? I am talking about most folks. Most do not live in the far nw. I will grant you many do live along/south of I70 into much of Ohio though. Plus.. My backyard could be saved very easily via the lake. Thus different set of circumstances for those in the lake belts. Still i am not holding my breath either.

[snowstormcanuck]

Let's see, above average precip in most of Wisconsin and Michigan since October, way above average in the Plains, and since early season winter storms tend to be farther north and west with the location of the jet stream, that should be a decent sign I would think, better than above average in the Northeast and way below average throughout the Great Lakes.

 

Since November 1st it has not been active. I know there's a lot of leeway with how "active" can be interpreted but I bet if you asked most people on this board, they'd agree with me. That's the only point you made that I'm questioning. I don't have an opinion on the predictive value of our current weather pattern for months in the future.

[Harry]

Doesn't the map Hoosier posted kind of dispel this point? Aside from that mid November severe outbreak it really hasn't been that active of a fall.

 

 

Exactly.. He is also missing my point that it still could turn around. Some of the better analogs for winter had that. Honestly i am baffled by what has been happening as typically a -EPO/-PNA ( unless the PNA is severely negative ) is gold for much of this region. History says the -EPO is far from being done with for the winter. Could come at the cost of December though. Time will tell.

 

Yes the deck is stacked but it can still change on a dime. Nothing is ever set in stone where the weather is concerned. Better to remain skeptical then have false hope which tends to lead to huge let downs.

[wisconsinwx]

Since November 1st it has not been active. I know there's a lot of leeway with how "active" can be interpreted but I bet if you asked most people on this board, they'd agree with me. That's the only point you made that I'm questioning. I don't have an opinion on the predictive value of our current weather pattern for months in the future.

 

I admit I do a lot of comparing of our region with the Northeast, and the NE has been incredibly dry in some areas in the fall, and when you look at Great Lakes/Upper Midwest lows in the fall vs Noreasters, clearly the former win out on the whole.  I really enjoyed this fall because it was comfortable when the sun was out, and when it wasn't there were many good periods of thunderstorms instead of yucky stratiform rain and 50F.

[snowstormcanuck]

Exactly.. He is also missing my point that it still could turn around. Some of the better analogs for winter had that. Honestly i am baffled by what has been happening as typically a -EPO/-PNA ( unless the PNA is severely negative ) is gold for much of this region. History says the -EPO is far from being done with for the winter. Could come at the cost of December though. Time will tell.

 

Yes the deck is stacked but it can still change on a dime. Nothing is ever set in stone where the weather is concerned. Better to remain skeptical then have false hope which tends to lead to huge let downs.

 

Baffled is a good word. For the last 5 weeks I've seen s/ws with potential written all over them slam in the WC and find ways to fall apart. The "storm" coming up this weekend is just the latest example. Chalk it up to bad luck I guess. But it does suck to waste an awesome pattern. 

[Snowstorms]

YES the storm track has been everywhere EXCEPT the track MOST of us need and or those across N.IL/se WI, S.MI, and N.IN.. Everything has been either in southern sections are far nw. We have yet to see a single system take the preferred track WE NEED. Many of winters past when this happened up into alot of December it remained that way for the rest of winter with ONLY a break or two unless we torched early on which we haven't.. Surface lows tracking to Chicago/WI or KY/Eastcoast does very little for most unless ala you are in the far nw MN/N.WI/N.MI or near and south of I70 into much of Ohio except the nw part of the state.

Again all i am saying is so far everything that can go wrong HAS and more often then not ( Yes it could turn around and of any winter offering that hope this would be it but it is not a given ) the rest of winter was much the same.

You can do what you like but i refuse to hold out hope for something that may never come. Thus i'll believe it when i see it is how i'll be playing it. Again a few of the top analogs for this winter did suggest it gets better in January but again we'll see and still even a outside shot at something this month if the EPO only relaxes ( goes +positive ) briefly for a few days. No it is NOT SHOT but the deck is stacked as far as this month goes.

This.

Without any La nina or El nino what you get is hybrid patterns and sometimes they can be boring. Last winter proved to be generally dry in the snow department, aside from February. Aside from that, the winter as a whole was boring.

The EPO may help allow for cold anomalies but what fun lies in a cold dry pattern? I'd rather have a warm pattern with consistent storminess. One of them will bound to have some imbedded cold air, etc.

And I agree with the posts above. This fall hasnt featured anything special. It was dry. The heavy rain showers imbedded within storms bumped precipitation values up. Overall this fall proved to be dry with little storm formation. A signal like this would portend to a dry winter. With temperatures varying.

A gradient pattern can help produce nice storms, but you dont wanna be on the wrong side LOL.

Still long ways to go so dont even think about throwing in the towel yet. Im confident there will be a decent storm or two before the month ends.

[Stebo]

Baffled is a good word. For the last 5 weeks I've seen s/ws with potential written all over them slam in the WC and find ways to fall apart. The "storm" coming up this weekend is just the latest example. Chalk it up to bad luck I guess. But it does suck to waste an awesome pattern. 

If we are having bad luck with a good pattern what is going to happen when the EPO flips and we are still in a raging +AO.

[Hoosier]

If we are having bad luck with a good pattern what is going to happen when the EPO flips and we are still in a raging +AO.

 

 

Winter '13/'14 Banter/Complaint Thread Part 2

[Harry]

Baffled is a good word. For the last 5 weeks I've seen s/ws with potential written all over them slam in the WC and find ways to fall apart. The "storm" coming up this weekend is just the latest example. Chalk it up to bad luck I guess. But it does suck to waste an awesome pattern. 

 

 

Yeah usually we can blame it on the buzz saw that tends to rip our storms apart which hangs out near Maine in these kinds of patterns but that has not been it either. Ofcourse with Sunday/Monday it is just terrible timing ( thus the bad luck perhaps?? ) as we do have a buzz saw of sorts dropping in from Canada as that system is ejecting into Texas from the sw. Ofcourse that system breaking up with one piece further west vs the other and not meeting up again till over Michigan and a possible weak coastal on top of it all is not helping the cause either. Had it all remained one system tracking up this side of the apps i am near certain the outcome would be different then what the models are showing even with the system just to the north in Canada. That does not look to be the case but yeah it can still change. We had this pattern in Dec 08 and a few other active Decembers as well. What is the missing piece?

[Harry]

If we are having bad luck with a good pattern what is going to happen when the EPO flips and we are still in a raging +AO.

 

Wouldn't it be something if we started cashing in?

[Stebo]

Winter '13/'14 Banter/Complaint Thread Part 2

 

We'd need 5 of these if that happens.

[Stebo]

Wouldn't it be something if we started cashing in?

 

At this point I wouldn't be shocked about anything, all I know is what we are getting now is crap.

[Harry]

At this point I wouldn't be shocked about anything, all I know is what we are getting now is crap.

 

 

Agreed.

[IWXwx]

'Nuff said.....

 

 

[Gilbertfly]

I saved that one too only because it looked so funny. WIll not be funny for whoever ends up in the next snow hole like that. Hopefully none of us.

 

.....it may actually look like this again by Monday morning lol

[Central Illinois]

'Nuff said.....

figures I would miss this one by a whole 50 miles

[Gilbertfly]

Man, that would be awesome.  I'm on vacation from the 13th through Christmas, so I'm game. 

 

Solid vacation time and timing there! 

 

System on the LongRangers still there around the 15th....

[Hoosier]

Can't recall many times where accumulating snow looked likely and I didn't end up with any flakes whatsoever.  This was a tough one being near the northern edge.