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Winter '13/'14 Banter/Complaint Thread Part 1

dmc76

By dmc76,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
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I suppose it's a hangover from my six winters in Ottawa.

 

I was checking old data and even in cold Decembers like 2000, a high of minus 5 or 6 Celsius was average for the second week of December. It was the overnight lows that pulled our mean temperature down. January is, by far, the coldest month.

 

Yeah months like January 2009, Jan 2011 and Feb 2007 featured some decent cold shots. December 2000 was an awesome month, almost an exact replica occurred in Dec 2008, both La Nina s lol. 

 

LOL, Yeah Ottawa is colder than Toronto given its location. The Lake and UHI really effect our temperature readings. If it weren't for them, i'm sure Toronto wouldn't be any warmer than Ottawa during the Winter.

 

Dec 1989 was really cold. 

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
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Yeah months like January 2009, Jan 2011 and Feb 2007 featured some decent cold shots. December 2000 was an awesome month, almost an exact replica occurred in Dec 2008, both La Nina s lol. 

 

LOL, Yeah Ottawa is colder than Toronto given its location. The Lake and UHI really effect our temperature readings. If it weren't for them, i'm sure Toronto wouldn't be any warmer than Ottawa during the Winter.

 

Dec 1989 was really cold. 

 

I agree about the two features you mentioned, but sans them, I still think lesser latitude would still make Toronto a bit warmer.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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I agree about the two features you mentioned, but sans them, I still think lesser latitude would still make Toronto a bit warmer.

 

Yes true I agree, it does play a role. But if we were to minus out the other two and keep this, I would only see about a 1.5C in difference between Ottawa and Toronto during Winter. Latitude does however, play a role in aiding more CAD when storms pass by. You'll notice Ottawa getting a decent amount of snowfall whereas Toronto gets rain. Most of this falls into location and the Lake warming temperatures up in regions close by. 

 

If you were to look at Buttonville you'd come across a much colder climatology than YYZ. For example, compare Jan 1994. 

 

The Lake has its negatives and positives, lol. 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Some ugly stuff being shown on the models. Starting to question any call for a front end loaded winter. It certainly isnt looking that way for the majority of the sub forum. Good news is that the robins will be back in town in about 90 days or so. Lol

Deedler called for a back loaded winter snow-wise. Nostradamus?

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

These weak storms with undefined moisture bands on the northern side are like the shades of 2011-12...can it get any more boring?

Cold and dry aint my style. Hopefully we loosen this progressive pattern a bit and develop better digging storms.

Zzzzz

I see absolutely zero similarities between 2011-12 and 2013-14 thus far.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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2012-2013 and 2011-2012 were twins separated at birth until Jan 20th.

Not for this part of the area. Even though last winter was backloaded, we had 6.3" with the Dec 26th storm then a 3" snowfall 3 days later. Nice snowpack for a 2.5 week stretch there. In 2011-12 there was never a stretch  the entire winter of snowpack, just numerous 1-3" snows that melted in a few days (one nice snow around 5" in Feb but even that lasted just 5 days). Its more understandable for your area because you had less snowpack last year during Christmas/New years than we did, plus you had the nice Nov 30th snowstorm in 2011 that we missed. So the 2 winters were much more similar in their first halves in your neck of the woods than mine.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

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Let me just join in: I'm all sorts of irritated that I'm going to miss to the south with this storm, then be dry slotted on the second wave of energy. Outside of the freak March storm that dumped a foot of snow that was gone a day later, I'm still looking at zero 6"+ storms since the GHD storm. I'll just go back to look at the pictures of the Valentine's Day Blizzard.

 

Still haven't had a 6" storm here since the GHD storm. 

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Powerball

Powerball

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Huh?

Last December was fairly good after Christmas.

 

Not really, unless you were along the I-94 corridor with all of the LES snow.

 

It wasn't as bad as 2011-2012, but I wouldn't call it "fairly good" either. 

 

I still have a sour taste in my mouth after the 2/26/12 storm (1.5" of liquid and only 2-6 inches of snowfall with marginal profiles). 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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Not really, unless you were along the I-94 corridor with all of the LES snow.

It wasn't as bad as 2011-2012, but I wouldn't call it "fairly good" either.

I still have a sour taste in my mouth after the 2/26/12 storm (1.5" of liquid and only 2-6 inches of snowfall with marginal profiles).

He was referring to the last week of December. Last winter was fairly good here, but naturally I'm i94 biased.

 

Im a bit pissy about missing the snow to the south, because we also missed last seasons last snowstorm. Missing the first and last few snowstorms of the season are tolerable if and only if we get more snow than those areas during the heart of winter (which USUALLY is the case). :)

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slow poke

slow poke

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Posted

I really didn't want to post in this thread so soon in the season but I really need some snow on the ground around home to get me in the Christmas spirit. The past two winters in my area have really stunk snow wise and its looking like this season is starting out like another one by the looks of the long range forcasts I have seen. All you south east MI posters, have you guys all seen these maps the NWS, DTX, puts together every year? Here is the link  www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=seasonal_snow   Do these maps look somewhat accurate to you guys? They seem fairly accurate to me for my area in northern St Clair county. Only 30ish inches last season and 20ish inches the season before stinks, three seasons in a row of sub average snowfall is for the birds for a family that loves to play in the snow.

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dmc76

dmc76

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I really didn't want to post in this thread so soon in the season but I really need some snow on the ground around home to get me in the Christmas spirit. The past two winters in my area have really stunk snow wise and its looking like this season is starting out like another one by the looks of the long range forcasts I have seen. All you south east MI posters, have you guys all seen these maps the NWS, DTX, puts together every year? Here is the link  www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=seasonal_snow   Do these maps look somewhat accurate to you guys? They seem fairly accurate to me for my area in northern St Clair county. Only 30ish inches last season and 20ish inches the season before stinks, three seasons in a row of sub average snowfall is for the birds for a family that loves to play in the snow.

 

No they are not accurate at all

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Gilbertfly

Gilbertfly

Posted
Posted

last year was a good example of just how difficult that record that was...this year is going to suck but I'm done calling for futility records, it's just too extreme.

 

Yeah, last year the writing was beyond on the wall....it was a full fledged gang of graffiti artists going to town on the wall with how the winter was going to go....

 

I think this year will be better...which doesn't say much considering where the bar was set last year.  With all of these upper lake bombs, it's just a matter of time until we get one of them to settle a couple 100 miles further south...IMO

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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I see absolutely zero similarities between 2011-12 and 2013-14 thus far.

 

By that i didnt mean the season as a whole, LOL. This year thus far is much better than 2011 in terms of temperatures. I was specifically pointing out the "storm" next week. I see alot of similarities to what we had seen in 2011-12. They're like dried up potatoes, dull and boring. 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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I really didn't want to post in this thread so soon in the season but I really need some snow on the ground around home to get me in the Christmas spirit. The past two winters in my area have really stunk snow wise and its looking like this season is starting out like another one by the looks of the long range forcasts I have seen. All you south east MI posters, have you guys all seen these maps the NWS, DTX, puts together every year? Here is the link  www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=seasonal_snow   Do these maps look somewhat accurate to you guys? They seem fairly accurate to me for my area in northern St Clair county. Only 30ish inches last season and 20ish inches the season before stinks, three seasons in a row of sub average snowfall is for the birds for a family that loves to play in the snow.

Those maps are not accurate. They are doing the best with the resources they have, but those maps need to be used with EXTREME caution. They use the total snowfall reported at coop and official climate stations each season and plot them out, and based on the amounts they do the color coding, etc. Some spotters are good at reporting snowfall, some are terrible with plenty of missing data, and that skews whatever area thats in. For immediate Detroit area, Dearborn and Grosse Pointe are a joke, so its sort of unrealistically bringing the curve down near Detroit. Best way to look at it is find out who are the spotters nearest you and if you feel they do a pretty good job on a daily basis, then its probably accurate for your area. What city do you live in? It would take several very lean snow years in the near future to even out the surplus the region has accrued since 2000, and I sure as hell hope that we dont see that happening. What I CAN tell you is that it is WAY too early to be worried in this area.

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