Winter '13/'14 Banter/Complaint Thread Part 1

[Hoosier]

Don't even know why I'm posting this right now but hey it's a banter thread.  Totals just for the big dog.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Trent]

Some words of wisdom for around these parts:

 

It's not the amount of snow that falls that makes a winter historic, but rather the person who accurately records the snow.

[AppsRunner]

This isn't much of a complaint, but TOL's numbers got adjusted a few days ago with one of the clippers... if left as they were, Toledo would have hit 40" this month. So close yet so far. 

 

Sorry, I'll go back to enjoying this winter now. 

[TugHillMatt]

Some words of wisdom for around these parts:

 

It's not the amount of snow that falls that makes a winter historic, but rather the person who accurately records the snow.

I love it!

[michsnowfreak]

I guess I can see powerball's point.  I knew DTW had over 10" but you never want to be in a localized min.

Actually 11.0" total FELL Jan 5-6th. Some lake effect after the storms passage, so 10.6" was the technical storm total. Just like 12.3" fell Dec 31-Jan 2 but it was a powerball nightmare grinder storm...and a bit of that was early NYE snow and the technical storm total was 11.1". The only reason I throw out the calendar day numbers is because whenever we look at old lists of compiled snowstorm totals (and this goes for ANY NWS office lists Ive ever seen) they are listed as the calendar day totals, which often times includes multi-day totals (Ive seen 3 and 4 and once in a blue moon 5 day totals listed as a "storm") as well as lake effect on the storms backside. Thats because we are looking at historic numbers and not witnessing the storm firsthand, so nowadays we can fine tune totals a bit more. Regardless, both were solid 10"+ storms for DTW. (And the totals went into Detroits snowstorm list as 11.1 and 10.6). And though I wasnt near the jackpot, Id easily take Jan 5-6 again myself.

[snowstormcanuck]

Actually 11.0" total FELL Jan 5-6th. Some lake effect after the storms passage, so 10.6" was the technical storm total. Just like 12.3" fell Dec 31-Jan 2 but it was a powerball nightmare grinder storm...and a bit of that was early NYE snow and the technical storm total was 11.1". The only reason I throw out the calendar day numbers is because whenever we look at old lists of compiled snowstorm totals (and this goes for ANY NWS office lists Ive ever seen) they are listed as the calendar day totals, which often times includes multi-day totals (Ive seen 3 and 4 and once in a blue moon 5 day totals listed as a "storm") as well as lake effect on the storms backside. Thats because we are looking at historic numbers and not witnessing the storm firsthand, so nowadays we can fine tune totals a bit more. Regardless, both were solid 10"+ storms for DTW. (And the totals went into Detroits snowstorm list as 11.1 and 10.6). And though I wasnt near the jackpot, Id easily take Jan 5-6 again myself.

 

When was DTW's last official 12"+ storm?

[Powerball]

When was DTW's last official 12"+ storm?

 

1/22/05 (12.2").

 

Before that, it was 1974.

[dmc76]

1/22/05 (12.2").

 

Before that, it was 1974.

 

and before that was 1929

[snowstormcanuck]

1/22/05 (12.2").

 

Before that, it was 1974.

 

 

and before that was 1929

 

As good as you guys run, that's really your Achilles' heel. Even Toronto gets much better frequency than that, and we're in the same big storm screwhole from Lk Michigan to the Apps.

[Powerball]

As good as you guys run, that's really your Achilles' heel. Even Toronto gets much better frequency than that, and we're in the same big storm screwhole from Lk Michigan to the Apps.

 

Yep. Relatively speaking, as great as everything else has been going, we're still a screw hole for big storms. 

 

I already had my fit about it in the complaint thread following the January 4th-6th storm.

 

As far as big storms for Detroit, I'm about where you're are when it comes to general snowfall for Toronto.

[snowstormcanuck]

Yep. Relatively speaking, as great as everything else has been going, we're still a screw hole for big storms. 

 

I already had my fit about it in the complaint thread following the January 4th-6th storm.

 

As far as big storms for Detroit, I'm about where you're are when it comes to general snowfall for Toronto.

 

Only 3 in about a century is pretty ridiculous. I hope at least one of them was WELL above 12".

[Powerball]

 

Only 3 in about a century is pretty ridiculous. I hope at least one of them was WELL above 12".

 

1974 (~19").

 

It doesn't do me much good though. There's little data (radar, satellitte, pictures, etc.) from it available, and I wasn't alive to see it. 

 

This one coming up on February 3rd-5th though has potential though, provided it doesn't pull another GHD 2011 or March 2008.

[michsnowfreak]

As good as you guys run, that's really your Achilles' heel. Even Toronto gets much better frequency than that, and we're in the same big storm screwhole from Lk Michigan to the Apps.

Any official numbers for Toronto? its interesting how the obsession is that magic, official 12" number. We talk about it in terms of "we havent seen..." and what not, but what it boils down to is that the official recording station for Detroit has had just the 3 storms drop 12.0"+ since 1929 (1929, 1974, 2005) and 12 storms overall since 1880...but think about it like this...you have storms that JUST missed that 12" mark officially (1965, 1973, 1982, 1991, 1999) and still many others in the 10-11" range in that same frame...and it isnt too much of a stretch to think that some of the 8-10" type storms were probably 12" in other areas of the immediate metro (fringed, mixing issues, etc at DTW?). I guess what im getting at is...if (Im tempted to say when) I hear any complaining when DTW DOES hit that mark in a single storm (whether its duration of the storm, forecast bust, some or many other areas of the metro not hitting a foot, etc) I will be doing complaining .

 

This year only furthers my opinion that Id rather experience a historic winter and all it brings over just a historic storm..but what the hell..cant think of any better winter to get an epic storm than this one. For all of us...BRING IT!!!

[dmc76]

Any official numbers for Toronto? " 

[michsnowfreak]

BTW as long as we are on the subject...is there really THAT much potential with this Feb 3-5 storm (yes I know theres a thread on it)? The big storm being shown on most models leads to high confidence in a storm and I can see us getting an 8-12" type deal (which would bring us to historic snowdepth), but is there really enough confidence to see that ANY area is going to see 12"+ with it. Potential is there...but i say its WAY too early to even assume ANYONE gets that.

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks. Is this downtown data I take it and not YYZ?

[AppsRunner]

Damn March 1870 must have been an awesome month. 3 storms of 15"+

[snowstormcanuck]

 

Save me a lot of work. Should include Feb 8, 2013 though

[dmc76]

Thanks. Is this downtown data I take it and not YYZ?

Downtown. YYZ is the Grosse Pointe of measuring. You can't go by YYZ 

[dmc76]

Save me a lot of work. Should include Feb 8, 2013 though

 

Yea it needs to be updated. What was the final total for that storm?

[Powerball]

BTW as long as we are on the subject...is there really THAT much potential with this Feb 3-5 storm (yes I know theres a thread on it)? The big storm being shown on most models leads to high confidence in a storm and I can see us getting an 8-12" type deal (which would bring us to historic snowdepth), but is there really enough confidence to see that ANY area is going to see 12"+ with it. Potential is there...but i say its WAY too early to even assume ANYONE gets that.

 

Well, there looks to be an anomalous amount of moisture with this system (unlike January 4th-6th), a fairly strong southern stream shortwave (unlike January 4th-6th) and a decent amount of cold air this time.

 

While no one's ASSUMING anyone gets 12"+ amounts, the potential is much greater than normal for this to be a pretty major snowstorm. 

[snowstormcanuck]

Yea it needs to be updated. What was the final total for that storm?

 

14.4".

 

Great work by the way. I was thinking about doing something the same so I don't have to mine through the data every time someone makes in inquiry as to when was the last xx snowstorm or whatever.

[snowstormcanuck]

Any official numbers for Toronto? its interesting how the obsession is that magic, official 12" number. We talk about it in terms of "we havent seen..." and what not, but what it boils down to is that the official recording station for Detroit has had just the 3 storms drop 12.0"+ since 1929 (1929, 1974, 2005) and 12 storms overall since 1880...but think about it like this...you have storms that JUST missed that 12" mark officially (1965, 1973, 1982, 1991, 1999) and still many others in the 10-11" range in that same frame...and it isnt too much of a stretch to think that some of the 8-10" type storms were probably 12" in other areas of the immediate metro (fringed, mixing issues, etc at DTW?). I guess what im getting at is...if (Im tempted to say when) I hear any complaining when DTW DOES hit that mark in a single storm (whether its duration of the storm, forecast bust, some or many other areas of the metro not hitting a foot, etc) I will be doing complaining .

 

This year only furthers my opinion that Id rather experience a historic winter and all it brings over just a historic storm..but what the hell..cant think of any better winter to get an epic storm than this one. For all of us...BRING IT!!!

 

Good point. If getting a 12"er is just barely going above 12" then having those storms absent is probably not such a big deal when you get a number of 10" storms instead. From what I remember, your 10-12" frequency the last 10 years or so is excellent.

[blizzardof96]

Good point. If getting a 12"er is just barely going above 12" then having those storms absent is probably not such a big deal when you get a number of 10" storms instead. From what I remember, your 10-12" frequency the last 10 years or so is excellent.

Off the top of my head I can think of a few 12"+ storms since the '99 blizzard(March 8 2008, Feb 7 2008, Feb 8 2013, Jan 26 2004 and Dec 11 2000). Any others I'm missing? Dec 18th 2008 was close.

[Stebo]

BTW as long as we are on the subject...is there really THAT much potential with this Feb 3-5 storm (yes I know theres a thread on it)? The big storm being shown on most models leads to high confidence in a storm and I can see us getting an 8-12" type deal (which would bring us to historic snowdepth), but is there really enough confidence to see that ANY area is going to see 12"+ with it. Potential is there...but i say its WAY too early to even assume ANYONE gets that.

If the moisture transport on the models is correct, yes there will be some 12"+ areas with it.

[snowstormcanuck]

Off the top of my head I can think of a few 12"+ storms since the '99 blizzard(March 8 2008, Feb 7 2008, Feb 8 2013, Jan 26 2004 and Dec 11 2000). Any others I'm missing? Dec 18th 2008 was close.

 

March 8, 2008 & Dec 11-12, 2000 weren't even close to 12", at least officially (~9" and ~8" respectively I believe). Feb 6, 2008 and Jan 26-27, 2004 were 12 inchers at YYZ, but not downtown, so that's why they're not on dmc's list. December 19, 2008 was another not even close one. I think 7". 

[blizzardof96]

March 8, 2008 & Dec 11-12, 2000 weren't even close to 12", at least officially (~9" and ~8" respectively I believe). Feb 6, 2008 and Jan 26-27, 2004 were 12 inchers at YYZ, but not downtown, so that's why they're not on dmc's list. December 19, 2008 was another not even close one. I think 7". 

After taking a look at the north york station snowfall totals, the March 08 storm actually had 12.6" of snow. Just show's how it varies from station to station, whether its buttonville, north york, Pearson or downtown.

[snowstormcanuck]

After taking a look at the north york station snowfall totals, the March 08 storm actually had 12.6" of snow. Just show's how it varies from station to station, whether its buttonville, north york, Pearson or downtown.

 

Oh, yeah, if you're going by North York even Dec 2000 was over a foot. Good station too. If it was up to me that'd be the primary suburban Toronto climo obs. site, rather than Pearson.

[michsnowfreak]

Good point. If getting a 12"er is just barely going above 12" then having those storms absent is probably not such a big deal when you get a number of 10" storms instead. From what I remember, your 10-12" frequency the last 10 years or so is excellent.

Im not taking ANYTHING away from the January 22, 2005, it was an awesome storm...I remember being stunned that they were forecasting that much snow from a clipper and we still got more than expected....but to be honest, the whole aura of that storm doesnt hold a candle to the storm of 1992, 1999, or 2011 (taking Feb 20, not Feb 1/2)...despite DTW getting a tiny bit less in each of those events. Just goes to show you that the total snowfall amount (or lack thereof) doesnt always tell the tale of a storm. For instance...powerball hates grinders...and I loved the New Years storm this year...I had 11.6" imby with that one (over 48 hours)...but for storm excitement I can think of many 6-8" storms that had more excitement than the New Years grinder did (and YES you are talking to the biggest snow freak/stats geek there is).

[michsnowfreak]

Downtown. YYZ is the Grosse Pointe of measuring. You can't go by YYZ 

Agree about YYZ. Just wanted to clarify. This isnt really the thread for it, but what the hell its banter lol...here is Detroits complete list to 1874. I know the records start at 1880 per the NWS website, but that is because snowfall data was M for a few scattered months in the 1870s. I can understand not including the total snowfall since there were a few M months, but no reason not to include snowfall data since 90% of the record for 1874-1879 is indeed complete. 43 storms have had 9"+ officially.

 

01.)            24.5” – April 6, 1886

02.)            19.3” – December 1/2, 1974

03.)            17.5” – February 28/March 1, 1875

04.)            16.1” – March 4/5, 1900

05.)            15.7” – January 31/February 1, 1878

06.)            14.0” – February 28/March 1, 1900

07.)            14.0” – December 18-20, 1929

08.)            12.8” – February 12/13, 1894

09.)            12.6” – February 18/19, 1908

10.)            12.5” – January 31/February 1, 1881

11.)            12.3” – March 3/4, 1895

12.)            12.3” – February 9, 1911

13.)            12.2” – January 22, 2005

14.)            12.1” – January 13/14, 1927

15.)            11.8” – January 30/31, 1982

16.)            11.4” – March 4/5, 1899

17.)            11.4” – January 13/14, 1910

18.)            11.3” – January 2/3, 1999

19.)            11.2” – February 3/4, 1901

20.)            11.2” – December 19/20, 1973

21.)            11.1” – January 14, 1992

22.)            11.1” – March 7/8, 1931

23.)            11.1” – December 31, 2013-January 2, 2014

24.)            11.0” – February 25/26, 1965

25.)            10.6” – December 4/5, 1898

26.)            10.6” – January 5/6, 2014

27.)            10.3” – January 6, 1994

28.)            10.3” – February 1/2, 2011

29.)            10.2” – February 20/21, 2011

30.)            10.1” – January 25-27, 1978

31.)            10.0” – February 4, 1900

32.)            10.0” – December 14, 1922

33.)              9.9” – March 16/17, 1973

34.)              9.5” – March 21/22, 1916

35.)              9.5” – March 19/20, 1883

36.)              9.4” – February 1, 1908

37.)              9.2” – March 26/27, 1934

38.)              9.0” – March 28/29, 1876

39.)              9.0” – December 3, 1893

40.)              9.0” – February 21, 1898

41.)              9.0” – November 15/16, 1932

42.)              9.0” – January 9/10, 1957

43.)              9.0” – December 15/16, 2007