michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Eh, even during the blizzard of 1978, Detroit started out with rain and only ended up with 8" of snow. A low tracking this way just doesn't produce foot totals Detroit and downriver.Detroit city probably got 9-10" anyway with this storm and is in the 10 percentile for current snowdepth historically, and I know this is the complaint thread...but I have to correct something. This storms forecast qpf numbers were fully realized in Detroit based on the last minute increases in qpf. We received MORE than models were forecasting when they had the arctic front stalling over us. Basically the arctic front overachived (as they usually do) and the main storm was forecast perfectly and its last minute uptick in qpf was fully realized. So the areas that saw the bigger totals had that thanks to the arctic front not the storm itself. We are lucky if 1 of our 10" came ftom the front. Nw butbs saw 3-7" from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Epic failure here by the NWS and local media. Models early Saturday had shifted all of the snow to our west. Despite no model showing significant snow, the NWS went with warnings for northeast Ohio for 6-12" They never backed down as the runs continued to show rain and 40s. My forecast as of late yesterday morning still had no mention of rain and 6-12" of snow. Sure enough temps soared into the 40s with pouring rain. Wraparound snow accumulated a dusting to 1.5" across the region this morning. It's a bummer that we missed a huge snowstorm with extreme potential snow depths and record breaking cold. It's even more of a bummer that the public was duped into winter storm warnings that had no chance of verifying. It's events like these where meteorologists get a bad rap. Media and forecast sensationalism is put in favor instead of a realistic forecast of 40s and rain that all models had shown for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Epic failure here by the NWS and local media. Models early Saturday had shifted all of the snow to our west. Despite no model showing significant snow, the NWS went with warnings for northeast Ohio for 6-12" They never backed down as the runs continued to show rain and 40s. My forecast as of late yesterday morning still had no mention of rain and 6-12" of snow. Sure enough temps soared into the 40s with pouring rain. Wraparound snow accumulated a dusting to 1.5" across the region this morning. It's a bummer that we missed a huge snowstorm with extreme potential snow depths and record breaking cold. It's even more of a bummer that the public was duped into winter storm warnings that had no chance of verifying. It's events like these where meteorologists get a bad rap. Media and forecast sensationalism is put in favor instead of a realistic forecast of 40s and rain that all models had shown for days. I knew on Saturday the howling south wind and spiking temps that the storm would be a bust for our area. The temps on Saturday night/Sun AM holding in the mid 30s clinched it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 If we see nice low tracks in the next two weeks or two with little to no cold air to work with, which looks possible, I will probably post here a lot. After seeing two storms just suppressed enough to screw us in the last week, it seems justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Just give me an over-achieving clipper/hybrid clipper with 6"+ and I'll be out of this thread the rest of the season. SW flow storms/cutters always seem to disappoint this area for a variety of reasons. Definitely have a better chance at getting a good snow here from a beefy clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Sure would like to avoid having to build an ark for this weekend. GFS has a healthy amount of precip modeled for sat. Probably 1-1.5" of liquid in the snowpack. Hydro issues could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Sure would like to avoid having to build an ark for this weekend. GFS has a healthy amount of precip modeled for sat. Probably 1-1.5" of liquid in the snowpack. Hydro issues could be possible.We have 1.6-1.7" in our snowpack. Its very deep, the ground is frozen, and we are looking at 35-40F rain. Snowpack will sponge the rain right up. Major hydro issues eventually....but hopefully not til spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 We have 1.6-1.7" in our snowpack. Its very deep, the ground is frozen, and we are looking at 35-40F rain. Snowpack will sponge the rain right up. Major hydro issues eventually....but hopefully not til spring. Looks like a recipe for lots of fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 We have 1.6-1.7" in our snowpack. Its very deep, the ground is frozen, and we are looking at 35-40F rain. Snowpack will sponge the rain right up. Major hydro issues eventually....but hopefully not til spring. We will lose half of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Sure would like to avoid having to build an ark for this weekend. GFS has a healthy amount of precip modeled for sat. Probably 1-1.5" of liquid in the snowpack. Hydro issues could be possible. Michiganders will find anything to complain about. Two significant snows, and guess who we see dominating the complaint thread still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Michiganders will find anything to complain about. Two significant snows, and guess who we see dominating the complaint thread still? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Michiganders will find anything to complain about. Two significant snows, and guess who we see dominating the complaint thread still? Southeast Michiganders....I mostly got missed by both storms (Muskegon sucks for synoptic snows)....but am getting lake effect to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Michiganders will find anything to complain about. Two significant snows, and guess who we see dominating the complaint thread still? Funny coming from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 We will lose half of it.It will all depend on the degree of warming/rain. Even losing half of it but adding rain to the mix could be like an 8-inch glacier with a water content of 2". Anyway all too early for anything but speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Michiganders will find anything to complain about. Two significant snows, and guess who we see dominating the complaint thread still? Yeah an idiot trolling, and people including you believing him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Michiganders will find anything to complain about. Two significant snows, and guess who we see dominating the complaint thread still? STHU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Yeah an idiot trolling, and people including you believing him. Complaining about a snow melt potential is trolling? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Complaining about a snow melt potential is trolling? Wow. It is pretty obvious you are trolling for no reason, but hey whatever floats your boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 If we see nice low tracks in the next two weeks or two with little to no cold air to work with, which looks possible, I will probably post here a lot. After seeing two storms just suppressed enough to screw us in the last week, it seems justified. Probably time for you to just punt January and focus on getting some other type of action. At least some nice warmth coming up to finally get out and enjoy some ice fishing and then I'm actually glad I'll be in the Dominican Republic from the 17th to the 26th.. More than likely a hideous snow pattern for here the rest of the month outside a possible clipper or 2 that that 90% of the time fails to deliver anyways. Better hope John Dee is wrong about the 2nd half of winter being a new england one with colder than avg and dry here. I really don't care if the rest of the winter goes down the toilet here. 95% of the sub-forum has had a great snow start with some doing a lot better than others - hopefully those areas can keep rolling and add a bunch to their already huge snow total surplus and I think they will as we get deeper in to winter when climo and pattern is really going to be on their side. Had my snowy and cold period when I wanted it the most especially after what happened the last two decembers. Got lots here on the plate going in to this spring anyways so a boring pattern where I'm not glued to the models will give me a lot of time for that and getting in enough fishing that I've neglected the past few winters.. Don't get me wrong - I'd love a few more storms to track and hit but if that doesn't happen so be it - weather is going to do what it wants and hugging the models and losing sleep every 6 hrs will do nothing but give me more grey hairs and to many more wasted hrs of life. Getting too old to waste so many hrs 5 months of the yr in front of some sort of internet device. Hard to believe we still have 3 months of legit snow chances to go.. Its been a long snowy winter and feeels more like we should be starting Feb and not just starting Jan. Maybe if you cry zzzzzzzzzz like Alek the snows will come to you to! Doubt that will do any good now though with a good for **** +pna look to set in later.. hopefully for you its just short lived and feb rocks on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Sure would like to avoid having to build an ark for this weekend. GFS has a healthy amount of precip modeled for sat. Probably 1-1.5" of liquid in the snowpack. Hydro issues could be possible. The latest GFS shows about .35 liquid over most of the lower peninsula with highs in the upper 30's. I doubt that will lead to much hydrology issues, but it will melt off a 1/3rd of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 If we see nice low tracks in the next two weeks or two with little to no cold air to work with, which looks possible, I will probably post here a lot. After seeing two storms just suppressed enough to screw us in the last week, it seems justified. Probably time for you to just punt January and focus on getting some other type of action. At least some nice warmth coming up to finally get out and enjoy some ice fishing and then I'm actually glad I'll be in the Dominican Republic from the 17th to the 26th.. More than likely a hideous snow pattern for here the rest of the month outside a possible clipper or 2 that that 90% of the time fails to deliver anyways. Better hope John Dee is wrong about the 2nd half of winter being a new england one with colder than avg and dry here. I really don't care if the rest of the winter goes down the toilet here. 95% of the sub-forum has had a great snow start with some doing a lot better than others - hopefully those areas can keep rolling and add a bunch to their already huge snow total surplus and I think they will as we get deeper in to winter when climo and pattern is really going to be on their side. Had my snowy and cold period when I wanted it the most especially after what happened the last two decembers. Got lots here on the plate going in to this spring anyways so a boring pattern where I'm not glued to the models will give me a lot of time for that and getting in enough fishing that I've neglected the past few winters.. Don't get me wrong - I'd love a few more storms to track and hit but if that doesn't happen so be it - weather is going to do what it wants and hugging the models and losing sleep every 6 hrs will do nothing but give me more grey hairs and to many more wasted hrs of life. Getting too old to waste so many hrs 5 months of the yr in front of some sort of internet device. Hard to believe we still have 3 months of legit snow chances to go.. Its been a long snowy winter and feeels more like we should be starting Feb and not just starting Jan. Maybe if you cry zzzzzzzzzz like Alek the snows will come to you to! Doubt that will do any good now though with a good for **** +pna look to set in later.. hopefully for you its just short lived and feb rocks on. Wtf. Complaining about interesting weather in a weather forum should be grounds for a ban if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Wtf. Complaining about interesting weather in a weather forum should be grounds for a ban if you ask me. Looks like nothing much interesting for a bit unless you think melting snow in between dry cool shots is. Pattern looks like garbage for here. could that change, sure, but unless you're east of lake michigan and south I don't see much for snow storm chances outside a lame dying mke clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 It is pretty obvious you are trolling for no reason, but hey whatever floats your boat. Im not trolling. This is the ****ing complaint thread. I expressed my displeasure in a potential snowmelt. You gotta problem with it, then just move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Im not trolling. This is the ****ing complaint thread. I expressed my displeasure in a potential snowmelt. You gotta problem with it, then just move on. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 lol at Stebo trolling the complaint thread. EDIT: Just read the whole thing and wisconsinwx is even worse. Sparty complaining about rain is January is legit, no matter how good their winter has been so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 lol at Stebo trolling the complaint thread. EDIT: Just read the whole thing and wisconsinwx is even worse. Sparty complaining about rain is January is legit, no matter how good their winter has been so far. +1 This subforum needs an intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I could seriously grow to loathe 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Don't get me wrong - I'd love a few more storms to track and hit but if that doesn't happen so be it - weather is going to do what it wants and hugging the models and losing sleep every 6 hrs will do nothing but give me more grey hairs and to many more wasted hrs of life. Getting too old to waste so many hrs 5 months of the yr in front of some sort of internet device. Is this not what we live for?? I could seriously grow to loathe 2013-14. Why? It's been an exciting winter so far. Plenty to track. No 1 footers yet but you can't have it all. Below normal since November, 10" snowfall in mid December, 1 in 30 year ice storm two weeks ago, nailbiter storm to track last weekend, 1 in 20 year cold shot (record setting in some locales), short-lived but wicked lake effect blizzard conditions two nights ago. AND its only January 8th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Is this not what we live for?? Why? It's been an exciting winter so far. Plenty to track. No 1 footers yet but you can't have it all. Below normal since November, 10" snowfall in mid December, 1 in 30 year ice storm two weeks ago, nailbiter storm to track last weekend, 1 in 20 year cold shot (record setting in some locales), short-lived but wicked lake effect blizzard conditions two nights ago. AND its only January 8th! That was very localized though. Most areas saw 6" or slightly less. And when it comes to assessing winters, I'm very one dimensional. Ice storms and bitter cold really don't factor in it for me. Snow is what it's all about. And to see several near miss snowstorms and a wide swath of 30-40" already down for the season just to our west is really disheartening. Hopefully it balances out but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I could seriously grow to loathe 2013-14. I feel like I've been trolled this winter. We got our first 6" storm in 3 years at the start of the year only to have most of it washed away a few days later by 40s and rain. In comes the arctic blast accompanied by a rain storm that ends with less than an inch of snow. Woo! -10 temps with patches of old brown crusty snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.