Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The wishcasting has been kinda disappointing. People tossing model runs with no reasoning, etc. It's not many people but the ones who are have been noisy. The NAM was bad for a while for sure but the last 4 runs have basically shown a similar outcome. Does it mean it's right? No, but a solution like it should be considered at this point especially with how close we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The IL favoritism is unreal right now I can't begrudge them their good fortune but for the first time in a long time I've been kind of hankering for a separate thread for the S and E part of the subforum. It's NOT intentional but their discussion can be somewhat irksome for those of us who are having our snowstorm siphoned off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The wishcasting has been kinda disappointing. People tossing model runs with no reasoning, etc. It's not many people but the ones who are have been noisy. The NAM was bad for a while for sure but the last 4 runs have basically shown a similar outcome. Does it mean it's right? No, but a solution like it should be considered at this point especially with how close we are. Completely agree with this. When somebody hates a model run they toss it and call the model names. The NAM did better than the GFS with the preChristmas ICE storm here. Now the NAM did overdo the last storm a couple days ago IMBY but it still did considerably better than the GFS with it. Wishcasting is to be expected though when a bunch of weather weenies get together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The IL favoritism is unreal right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I can't begrudge them their good fortune but for the first time in a long time I've been kind of hankering for a separate thread for the S and E part of the subforum. It's NOT intentional but their discussion can be somewhat irksome for those of us who are having our snowstorm siphoned off. It was never your storm to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I can't begrudge them their good fortune but for the first time in a long time I've been kind of hankering for a separate thread for the S and E part of the subforum. It's NOT intentional but their discussion can be somewhat irksome for those of us who are having our snowstorm siphoned off. The hard part is the track I want is going to be hated by several in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It was never your storm to begin with. Wow, I can't rebut this one. Check and mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The hard part is the track I want is going to be hated by several in this forum. It's alright. I've vented in the appropriate location and now I'm good. It's unfortunate that certain rabble rousers won't permit us to vent in peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It was never your storm to begin with. Except that it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Except that it was Yeah, MidwestChaser thinks we think we had some sort of possessory right to the storm. Rather than the more logical, although less troll worthy explanation of "our storm" being a colloquial phrase indicating that the models depicted it to be a hit for us first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 i thought it was mother nature's snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I can't begrudge them their good fortune but for the first time in a long time I've been kind of hankering for a separate thread for the S and E part of the subforum. It's NOT intentional but their discussion can be somewhat irksome for those of us who are having our snowstorm siphoned off. one of the reasons we broke off that re-occurring thread every season for Ohio was because, let's face it, trying to discuss a specific system in a region wide thread was like driving bumper cars. A good model run for us is a bad one for them and vice versa. So people get butt hurt, accused of being weenies etc and it all goes to sh*t....ie the great Midwestern/OV subforum civil wars of the past...lol. But there is one myth that needs to be put to bed regarding this subforum as a whole. That is the myth that the greatest concentration of weenieism exists in the south and east sections. Bullsh*t. Just because your average snowfall is higher, doesn't mean your less of a weenie. Many many examples but the most recent had to be yesterday. I believe it was the 18z runs when the models, specifically the nam but also the gfs, shifted southeast. Suddenly there were no snowfall maps posted for the first time in like 20 runs. So what DID get posted, analyzed, and anal-probed? The 18z ukmet because it was showing the best solution. I didn't have the ballz to post that even I knew from my many years of weenieism that the 18z and 6z runs of the UKmet are basically regurgitated data from the 00z and 12z runs. I said nothing for fear of getting banned Imagine if us Ohio posters pulled the 18zukmet card out of our trunk and used it in that thread to support a southeast argument....we would have been machine gunned with sausages. Point is, it's all good fun and there are just as many weenies in Chicago and Michigan and Canada as Ohio. For christsake the very fact that you have 100s if not 1000s of posts on a weather board says it all. Now for those of you getting this storm, go fck yourselves.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I wouldn't call it IL favoritism. It's just that when the models are favoring a particular area, the posters in that area get excited and post more. My area is not favored and so we're not getting as many posts from our posters. We're too busy sharpening our razors for the wrist slitting to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wow. Went from a 12+ this morning, to rain and a few inches. Punt. Next! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 What would winter be without a big storm giving you hope and then screwing you over with a day to go. Starts as a triple phase bomb well east of here and likely ending up 40mb higher and somehow going over my head or a bit west. Could only happen to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Well it's not like the mega phase 1978 redux was in reliable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Not going to have a meltdown but I feel like I'm from DC and I want to cancel winter. At least we haven't even hit the peak time for snowfall around these parts. I should be thankful for that three inch snowfall last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Just to add insult to injury, the NAM finally has one of its famous jacked up QPF runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I guess we'll take today's excruciating miss to the southeast as yet another deposit into the bank of karma. Apparently MLI somehow pulled 7.8" out of their ass, so it was that close. Princeton hit 6.1". Ma nature is just taunting me now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 You all have me beat. The Iowa and Wisconsin members aren't getting anything from this system. It's getting a bit ridiculous how difficult it is for this area to get a big storm. Even the bigger pre-xmas storm, in which I was in the middle of the deformation zone, only gave me 4.8 inches. February 2nd will be three years since my last >6" snowstorm. That's hard to do because 6" really isn't that much. While it's annoying to watch big snow events miss to the southeast, it's still fun to watch the models and then watch the storm play out. I have browser tabs open for all the radars from St. Louis to Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 You all have me beat. The Iowa and Wisconsin members aren't getting anything from this system. It's getting a bit ridiculous how difficult it is for this area to get a big storm. Even the bigger pre-xmas storm, in which I was in the middle of the deformation zone, only gave me 4.8 inches. February 2nd will be three years since my last >6" snowstorm. That's hard to do because 6" really isn't that much. While it's annoying to watch big snow events miss to the southeast, it's still fun to watch the models and then watch the storm play out. I have browser tabs open for all the radars from St. Louis to Detroit. You win the screwage crown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 ...Even the bigger pre-xmas storm, in which I was in the middle of the deformation zone, only gave me 4.8 inches. Yeah that storm seemed like such a waste. Great track for both of us, and the cold sector precip was abysmal relative to the strength of the storm. The cold sector was completely cut off from the gulf connection, and precip generation was 90% from dynamics alone. While southern IL got a FOOT of rain our deformation band was primarily a 3-5" event. "February 2nd will be three years since my last >6" snowstorm. That's hard to do because 6" really isn't that much." Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Yeah that storm seemed like such a waste. Great track for both of us, and the cold sector precip was abysmal relative to the strength of the storm. The cold sector was completely cut off from the gulf connection, and precip generation was 90% from dynamics alone. While southern IL got a FOOT of rain our deformation band was primarily a 3-5" event. "February 2nd will be three years since my last >6" snowstorm. That's hard to do because 6" really isn't that much." Same here. joint monarchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 joint monarchy Soon Toronto will join that club and we'll have a new "Snow Drought Party". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Pretty funny to think the person who started this thread could see their biggest snowstorm in decades out of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Ok, I said earlier that I would have a meltdown, so here it comes... First, I'll start off with saying that my rant is NOT intended to take away from what was a solid "run of the mill" snowstorm for Detroit tonight with the PVB. Most areas picked up about 6-9" and we did have some fairly impressive snowfall rates, even if it was only for a short time. I know there are some who simply liked seeing the snow fall and having it add to their snowpack. (of course, I'm going to ignore the fact that I was probably screwed over, in terms of having a lower snow depth than everyone surrounding me, with the supposed extreme snow depths, because I had a lower base than downriver areas before the storm began and I didn't get much of anything with the Arctic Front snows those to the NW got aside from maybe a sloppy inch). My rant was also NOT intended to diminish the absolutely massive snowstorm you guys just to the NW in Michigan and through IL/IN/MO got. In fact, after the last 2 disasters that were called Winter, it's nice to see folks somewhere in this region getting clobbered. THAT SAID: After tonight's storm, Detroit's about the only place still waiting for a MAJOR snowstorm (since 2007), which is amazing when you consider that we've had a higher frequency of snowstorms overall than other locations, and 3 of the past 6 seasons have been historically snowy (with the current season on its way there). I don't even have to get a bomb, just a 12-18" snowfall with 1-2+" per hour snowfall rates. Of course, that's probably asking too much. Will probably either have to wait another 30 years for another super clipper or closed-off/moisture-laden Apps Runner (that's extremely rare in itself) to take a perfect track or move to some place like Chicago. Just since 2007, we've been screwed over at the last second by GHD 2011 and this storm, which some are now nicknaming the "Polar Vortex Blizzard" (or PVB), as the arctic front snows shifted NW at the last second which would have guaranteed us a monster snowstorm and the deformation snows failed to bomb out and produce the extreme QPF numbers and snowfall rates that were predicted even 24 hours ago as the low didn't deepen as rapidly as some let on to. And this is not even counting the screw jobs from NYE 2007 (forecasted to much near a foot, only received a wet and sloppy 2-4" with mixing/dryslotting issue), the March 2008 Blizzard (after a season of nothing but NW trenders, the one damn storm where we could have used a NW trend manages to actually trend SE and it was massive not even 75 miles to our SE), 2/26/13 (a moisture bomb with surface temps of 33*F-34*F and 1.50" of QPF that was a dewpoint degree away from wet bulbing to a 15"+ snowstorm became a 2-6" low-ratio slop fest) and probably several others I have blocked out of my memory. And it's funny in a sad way too, because despite the fact that we can never get the systems that have the potential to be massive to at least produce as forecasted, or the unthinkable, OVERACHIEVE, almost all of the ****ing "run of the mill" storms and long duration/light snow events since 2007 (including the last two) have managed to overachieve, some of which overachieved greatly. And I really don't give a **** about climo, simply enjoying what I get or being patient. It's a legit gripe and I will continue to gripe about this until it happens. If someone views it as me being too negative and wants to take prozac after reading my post, or is sick of my whining, too bad, **** you along with your lack of empathy and deal with it. This is the complaint thread, I have a complaint and I'm complaining. ...And now I feel just a LITTLE better to simply get that off my chest. At least I'm no longer holding it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Eh, even during the blizzard of 1978, Detroit started out with rain and only ended up with 8" of snow. A low tracking this way just doesn't produce foot totals Detroit and downriver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Powerball i feel your pain. The last major snow(6+) i've seen imby was the March 8 2008 blizzard. Yes there was the post Christmas blizzard last year but that underperformed and should never had blizzard warnings. Like you, the NW shift always seems to screw me and this current blizzard was the most painful. To have it start as a triple phase bomb well to the east and then move back west to put me in the sweet spot to see 8-12" at one point only to move too far west a day or 2 away is as brutal as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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