Chargers09 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 So if they are, they are, doesn't mean that they can't or shouldn't be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 So if they are, they are, doesn't mean that they can't or shouldn't be posted. Yes it does, if they are proven to be false why on earth would we want them posted here. If I made a map saying that 30" of snow is coming for OH it wouldn't be okay to post... Not really that difficult to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 One last thing about the WxBell maps, I say let the storm play out, and when they are patently proven to be complete crap, we can agree to never use them again on this subforum. People can gladly go to another subforum to see false information but this subforum should be striving to stop such crap from being allowed. Talking out of both sides of your mouth, I think. Letting the storm play out before calling them crap and striving to not allow them are two different ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Plus there are several other means of getting Euro data including snow maps on Wundermaps and none of them even remotely gel with the WxBell maps. I mean this is really simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Talking out of both sides of your mouth, I think. Letting the storm play out before calling them crap and striving to not allow them are two different ideas. Reread my post, I said if they are proven to be false, we shouldn't allow false information here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Reread my post, I said if they are proven to be false, we shouldn't allow false information here... The WBell maps obviously have a weakness, and it's amplified by the parameters of the upcoming storm, but you want to throw them out for all storms because of this? What are you going to do when there are no models allowed based on your qualifiers? After all, all models fail at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I realize that Earl Barker doesn't have Euro snow maps which creates a bit of a problem in that regard but the WxBell snow map problem isn't limited to Euro maps...it's all the other models too. At least the Earl Barker maps try to factor in sleet/freezing rain and not show it as snow. We'd be better off without WxBell snow maps but if they're going to be posted, at least add the caveat that it's 10:1 and overdone on the southern end due to mixing. That could serve as a compromise of sorts...a WxBell snow map with no explanation gets deleted but stays up if there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I realize that Earl Barker doesn't have Euro snow maps which creates a bit of a problem in that regard but the WxBell snow map problem isn't limited to Euro maps...it's all the other models too. At least the Earl Barker maps try to factor in sleet/freezing rain and not show it as snow. We'd be better off without WxBell snow maps but if they're going to be posted, at least add the caveat that it's 10:1 and overdone on the southern end due to mixing. That could serve as a compromise of sorts...a WxBell snow map with no explanation gets deleted but stays up if there is. The fact that they don't match the Earl Barker maps should be a red flag immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I realize that Earl Barker doesn't have Euro snow maps which creates a bit of a problem in that regard but the WxBell snow map problem isn't limited to Euro maps...it's all the other models too. At least the Earl Barker maps try to factor in sleet/freezing rain and not show it as snow. We'd be better off without WxBell snow maps but if they're going to be posted, at least add the caveat that it's 10:1 and overdone on the southern end due to mixing. That could serve as a compromise of sorts...a WxBell snow map with no explanation gets deleted but stays up if there is. I heard someone else ( main forum or perhaps MA or NE?..A met ) say they were using 15-1 ratio's on WxWeenieBell maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I heard someone else ( main forum or perhaps MA or NE?..A met ) say they were using 15-1 ratio's on WxWeenieBell maps? All I've seen are 10:1. In any case there's still the problem of not factoring in sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 All I've seen are 10:1. In any case there's still the problem of not factoring in sleet/freezing rain. Oh yeah definitely.. I too think they are worthless. Like JB i am sure at some point they are bound to score the coupe.. God help that day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The WxBell maps look extremely close to what GFS and LOT maps look like... And ratios are WELL below 10:1 from Kankakee to ORD ZR zone that you claim is being modeled snow... While the QPF gradient goes down from 1.6 to Kankakee and to 1.2 MDW and 1.0 at UGN and 1.0 at MKE... So there is a gradient of 100% rain then RAIN/ZR to ZR/SNOW to 100% snow on that map... Well if the ZR were modeled at 10:1 snow, then the band that includes just ZR and snow, somewhere between Midway and UGN, would have to show up with at least 10" of snow on the map...somewhere between Midway and UGN...because there is between 1.0-1.2 QPF along that axis... But there is no 10" modeled south of Racine...which means that ZR must be modeled as reducing the snow amounts and ratios..in other words..accurately... One last thing about the WxBell maps, I say let the storm play out, and when they are patently proven to be complete crap, we can agree to never use them again on this subforum. People can gladly go to another subforum to see false information but this subforum should be striving to stop such crap from being allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The WxBell maps look extremely close to what GFS and LOT maps look like... And ratios are WELL below 10:1 from Kankakee to ORD ZR zone that you claim is being modeled snow... While the QPF gradient goes down from 1.6 to Kankakee and to 1.2 MDW and 1.0 at UGN and 1.0 at MKE... So there is a gradient of 100% rain then RAIN/ZR to ZR/SNOW to 100% snow on that map... Well if the ZR were modeled at 10:1 snow, then the band that includes just ZR and snow, somewhere between Midway and UGN, would have to show up with at least 10" of snow on the map...somewhere between Midway and UGN...because there is between 1.0-1.2 QPF along that axis... But there is no 10" modeled south of Racine...which means that ZR must be modeled as reducing the snow amounts and ratios..in other words..accurately... Someone mentioned that it may model precip with 850 mb temps above 0C as snow as long as 2m temps are below freezing. In the Chicago area/near the lake, 2m temps are shown to be above freezing for a while which could explain why the amounts are much less on the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 May model the ZR as snow? The way Stebo and others kick these maps to the curb an anyone who mentions them, they sound a helluva lot more sure than "May"... Plus with somewhere between 1.2" to 1" inches of QPF between MDW and UGN, if ZR were modeled as Snow, somewhere would have to have a 10" plus snow total....in other words X % ZR modeled 10:1 and X% SN modeled 10:1.... But the values are 40% to 60% lower than 10"..indicating the maps DONT model ZR as Snow and should be "postable" Someone mentioned that it may model precip with 850 mb temps above 0C as snow as long as 2m temps are below freezing. In the Chicago area/near the lake, 2m temps are shown to be above freezing for a while which could explain why the amounts are much less on the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I know the track is not set in stone. I am still holding my breathe for a slight SE shift. Why am I posting in the complaint thread: because I would hate latest US model runs (6Z GFS & NAM) ... they are like the parting of the Red Sea in this area ... Heavy Rain/Storm are south and east while the snow is North and West. It's boring to getting absolutely nothing memorable with a storm system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 May model the ZR as snow? The way Stebo and others kick these maps to the curb an anyone who mentions them, they sound a helluva lot more sure than "May"... Plus with somewhere between 1.2" to 1" inches of QPF between MDW and UGN, if ZR were modeled as Snow, somewhere would have to have a 10" plus snow total....in other words X % ZR modeled 10:1 and X% SN modeled 10:1.... But the values are 40% to 60% lower than 10"..indicating the maps DONT model ZR as Snow and should be "postable" Again, the corridor near the lake from MDW northward toward UGN has been shown to have 2m temps just a hair above freezing, meaning that the model would not count precip as snow during that time in that area. The best way to see that it overmodels snow on the southern end is to look at what it's showing in parts of southern Michigan where there's no lake influence and 2m temps are AOB freezing with temps aloft that are certainly too warm for the kind of heavy snow amounts that the maps show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Again, the corridor near the lake from MDW northward toward UGN has been shown to have 2m temps just a hair above freezing, meaning that the model would not count precip as snow during that time in that area. The best way to see that it overmodels snow on the southern end is to look at what it's showing in parts of southern Michigan where there's no lake influence and 2m temps are AOB freezing with temps aloft that are certainly too warm for the kind of heavy snow amounts that the maps show. It still overdoing snow here by showing 10:1 when we'll be closer to 5:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Here's the CFS from 4 days ago. #worthless And after a one-day torch blip, the skitzo CFS is right back to a frigid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 Snow depth down to 3" Good thing we have 1-3" type snows Mon->Tue time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Kinda sad to see this one not live up to the monster potential but it should still be pretty good for those on the wintry side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 This storm has become one of my most memorable ones to date.... Not because of the outcome but rather the journey getting here. Reminds me of getting to play the Super Bowl and keeping the bench warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 If what I'm reading around the underground meterology world is true.... ...the next thing we may all be tracking is brutal cold in a week or two. Hearing rattles of January '94, (and not just from the usual JB). Brrrrr, -22 was something that was interesting to experience, ONCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 If what I'm reading around the underground meterology world is true.... ...the next thing we may all be tracking is brutal cold in a week or two. Hearing rattles of January '94, (and not just from the usual JB). Brrrrr, -22 was something that was interesting to experience, ONCE. Care to reveal your sources? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 If what I'm reading around the underground meterology world is true.... ...the next thing we may all be tracking is brutal cold in a week or two. Hearing rattles of January '94, (and not just from the usual JB). Brrrrr, -22 was something that was interesting to experience, ONCE. Don't sweet talk me like that. I don't see any way to get that brutal cold without some snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 I heard that the Euro ensembles are pretty ridiculous in the long range and would support the potential for a massive arctic outbreak. Can't see them myself though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 No complaints here, it could be cold and dry, which is much worse than what we have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 And we have a full winter to go. Assuming the pattern stays relatively active, then we should all have plenty of opportunities through January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Much better so far than the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Provided the pattern doesn't crap out, I suppose we will try this again (large/widespread/dynamic snowstorm) in another 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 You guys should check out the 00z GFS at 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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