downeastnc Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 My guess is CMC and Euro warm up the next few runs also, starting tonight! Hope I'm wrong though!!! I suspect you will be right, but I wouldnt be surprised for them to trend back colder as the event gets closer as well. Eventually we will learn to ignore the nuances in the models in this range, what really matters is how and where the high sets up and how long it stays there and I wont trust the models on that until we get inside 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 00z gfs took away all my rain Oh hell no! Let me generate this meteogram! haha, here in a few when it comes out! If the rain is gone.. I'm po'ed. Not a good thing.. we need it badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I suspect you will be right, but I wouldnt be surprised for them to trend back colder as the event gets closer as well. Eventually we will learn to ignore the nuances in the models in this range, what really matters is how and where the high sets up and how long it stays there and I wont trust the models on that until we get inside 3-4 days. I agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 CMC support doesn't mean much its way too cold way too often. If the EURO trends 1-2 degrees warmer over the next 5 days then we have a GFS solution. If the GFS trends a few degrees colder then we have the EURO/CMC solution. Point being right now GFS is on its own in showing the solution that it shows. Many things can change this far out and any solution is still on the table, but the main point as many have stated on here is to focus on the placement/strength of the high. Other details will fall in place later (surface temps, qpf, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I suspect you will be right, but I wouldnt be surprised for them to trend back colder as the event gets closer as well. Eventually we will learn to ignore the nuances in the models in this range, what really matters is how and where the high sets up and how long it stays there and I wont trust the models on that until we get inside 3-4 days. Isn't this always how it goes. The models show something good and people get excited. The models backtrack and then people come up with excuses like this one. You can't have it both ways. Either the models are getting it, or they aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 No need to fully jump the cliff until the EURO starts to trend warmer. I do prefer it...not just because it is better for winter weather...it is better with CAD compared to the GFS. We are going to be burned out by the time the storm gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Buckeye, I came up with this based off the 00z GFS!: (maybe some thunder mixed in sometimes? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like the Canadian more or less held serve, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 No need to fully jump the cliff until the EURO starts to trend warmer. I do prefer it...not just because it is better for winter weather...it is better with CAD compared to the GFS. We are going to be burned out by the time the storm gets here. I always thought the GFS was much better with CAD events? especially temperatures? In years past.... please correct me if I'm wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Isn't this always how it goes. The models show something good and people get excited. The models backtrack and then people come up with excuses like this one. You can't have it both ways. Either the models are getting it, or they aren't. Part of me wishes there was no way to look past say 120 hrs, and I remember when storms popped up in the 2-3 day range all the time. The latest runs look like you would expect them to look climo wise for the SE. I think people forget that in the 7 day range I bet maybe 1 out of 10-15 modeled winter events in the SE actually happen...hell it may even be a worse ratio than that if you count the 200+ hr long range fantasy stuff. In this timeframe I prefer the Euro but the GFS lately has tended to see the trend first.......all I know is its gonna be 77 freaking degrees Friday and almost all the big icestorms I can remember followed big warmups... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Gone is all the ice for RDU and GSO per 12/03 00Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Gone is all the ice for RDU and GSO per 12/03 00Z GFS I agree with those maps for RDU. It's just not time yet. Climate is showing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I would consider this very nice words from DT on the 0z GFS. He is making some sound sense tonight with no bashing. ....with a clear skies on Saturday ....much colder air comes in along with DEWPOINTS that were much lower in the Low teens . *** The clearing skies and lower DEWPOINTS on Saturday is the KEY to the whole situation. *** The temperature can be 32° but if you do point is 14 and the precipitation starts your saturation temperature ( WET BULB) is in the middle 20s and thus you get your ice or snow. But in this new scenario by the 0Z Tuesday GFS ...the rain only stops for few hours The cold front stalls much further to the NORTH ...over KY TN state line and over the VA NC state line. Skies never really get a chance to clear out.... so the cold air never gets a chance to drop into the region and thoe Low DEWPOINTS that are so crucial for getting frozen precipitation .....never move into any portion of Virginia or North Carolina or Maryland. MY VIEW ... I urge caution. First one of my big rules in forecasting in the extended and medium range is that when you have a certain scenario which are showing up tie me after time after time and then along comes one model which has a totally different solution.... Usually that new solution is wrong. Not always but usually. SECOND... Wait to see if the other weather models show this change. If this warmer trend with a totally different solution is a valid then the other models should pick up on it tonight. THIRD... Right now the weather models see the big SE Ridge but it does not see any significant arctic air over any portion of the CONUS. All the subzero stuff is still north of the U.S. Canada border. Once this arctic cold is in the Upper Plains central Plains and Great Lakes there may be a sudden shift in the models back towards a much colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I agree with those maps for RDU. It's just not time yet. Climate is showing so. Climate isn't favorable this time of year necessarily, but this modeled event would be later than the worst ice storm of them all (12/4/02). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Climate isn't favorable this time of year necessarily, but this modeled event would be later than the worst ice storm of them all (12/4/02). Don't jinx me james! I dont want anyone to get this ice! I'm going for the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Buckeye, I came up with this based off the 00z GFS!: (maybe some thunder mixed in sometimes? ) That's not too shabby The gfs likes to tease me by showing all of that beautiful precip, only to take it away as things get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 That's not too shabby The gfs likes to tease me by showing all of that beautiful precip, only to take it away as things get closer granted, it's really not as much as the bars show.. like .20 on the high end at once 6 hr interval.. but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 How does the ULL off the SW coast play into all this, or does it. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 granted, it's really not as much as the bars show.. like .20 on the high end at once 6 hr interval.. but still Anything close to .25 would be nice. I'm tired of sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 euro coming in warmer. not the trend you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The Euro looks pretty similar to last night's run to me, but maybe a touch warmer. It definitely has a wedging signal through hr 144, though the HP looks to be sliding out to sea at about then. It looks quite a bit different than the GFS, in any case. At h5, the SE Ridge looks a little more stout than last night's run. I'm just looking at the free maps, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro still dumps some snow/mix/whatever on a lot of Virginia and N. NC. CAD erodes away around 156hrs. Still looks like a pretty good ice event for someone if the euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 How in the wide world of sports does the 0Z good doctor generate mutiinch snowfalls in much of N NC with the 850 always above zero in all of NC through 0Z 12/10?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 How in the wide world of sports does the 0Z good doctor generate mutiinch snowfalls in much of N NC with the 850 always above zero in all of NC through 0Z 12/10?? It's the magic of the WxBell clown, Larry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This must take all potentiall frozen precip and show it as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Michelle, I've had on and off dripping drizzle, and one good shower today. Didn't give me but .13, but it soaked everything by being around all day. So, I'll take it. I always look to the precip first, then worry about the cold, and if precip picks up on the maps as the week progresses, and moves back south, then someone will have a chance over the weekend, and if not, then some needed rain will fall somewhere north.... as a consolation prize for not winning a hell zstorm, lol. But who knows? Might be sunny by the time it gets cold. Me, I'd just like to see the rain coming back south for the main threat. Isn't looking as juicy as it was down here. And still looks like the closest ice to Ga could be far northern Ala, if the cold banks up against the spine of the mountains over there. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 How in the wide world of sports does the 0Z good doctor generate mutiinch snowfalls in much of N NC with the 850 always above zero in all of NC through 0Z 12/10??Their graphics may be pretty, but they sure arent very accurate. (Atleast when it comes to snow maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The new fringe zone on the 0z euro is now Hickory/Mooresville at hour 135. Not the trend I wanted to see to increase my confidence at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Their graphics may be pretty, but they sure arent very accurate. (Atleast when it comes to snow maps) To my surprise, the WUnderground Euro snow map looks similar - 102hrs for Tennessee, but 850's and surface both cooperate on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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