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CAD storms thread.

dsaur

By dsaur,
in Southeastern States

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

 

GSP disco...

THE MAIN MODEL PATTERN DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP OVER THEWEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS INJECTING ENERGY INTO THE WRNTROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES...WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVEINTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY...AND DAMPENS THE WRN WAVE DOWNSTREAMTOWARD THE APPALACHIANS INTO MON. THE ECMWF AND CMC SOLUTIONS ARETHE COLDEST SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER SEPENETRATION OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ANY EVENT SRLY UPGLIDE OVER THESTALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD RETURN QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. INADDITION...SPRAWLING 1040 MB HIGH PRES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ERNPA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING. WILL FEATURESUNDAY TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH FREEZING TEMPS QUITEPOSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS N THROUGHMOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE A PROMINENT WARM NOSE INPROFILES...INDICATING MAINLY A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN PTYPE ISSUEFOR SUNDAY.CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER TIMING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THEGENERAL APPROACH WILL BE FOR THE CAD TO SLOWLY ERODE WITH A TRAILINGFROPA EVENTUALLY SCOURING THINGS OUT FROM THE WEST. WILL FEATURECONTINUED LOW END CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.

 

 

THAT, is about as typical as it gets around here in NC and how this probably plays out.  CAD does the job to get I40 and north into some freezing rain for a time and it slowly scours out during the day on Sunday to a plain old cold rain.  Everybody south of 40 is nice and toasty at 34 degrees or above.  It's like I've heard that dance 50 times through the years. 

 

Seems like the hope is still for the cold to be "underestimated". In my experience though I remember it's the strength of the HIGH that is often "overestimated".  Not impressed with CADs.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

THAT, is about as typical as it gets around here in NC and how this probably plays out. CAD does the job to get I40 and north into some freezing rain for a time and it slowly scours out during the day on Sunday to a plain old cold rain. Everybody south of 40 is nice and toasty at 34 degrees or above. It's like I've heard that dance 50 times through the years.

Seems like the hope is still for the cold to be "underestimated". In my experience though I remember it's the strength of the HIGH that is often "overestimated". Not impressed with CADs.

What you are describing seems to be in situ CAD. As modeled, that is not the case here (though of course that could change and the HP could slide eastwards). It seems like it has been forever since we've had a classic CAD event to discuss.
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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Models almost always underestimate the intensity and the longevity of the cold air from classic CAD this far out, particularly if the source region is very cold/dry. You can't just napalm the conversation with "models always underestimate the cold", though. There are conditions where that is true, and there are conditions where it isn't.

If there is an overrunning situation or weak Miller B, and if there is a 1040ish High in the northeast (not offshore or way up in Canada), and it sits there producing northerly winds at the surface while precip is falling, a verbatim prog from this far out will be rain in a lot of areas. 2 days out, many of those areas will be ice, assuming the synoptic situation holds.

If the High retreats, if the Low bombs out heading to the Lakes, or if the High appears weaker on the models as you close in, then that's a different situation altogether. You could argue that in this case, any of those scenarios could occur. That's a legitimate point. After all, we're 6 days out. Many things can and will change.

But if there is such a strong high, sitting in the NE and hanging around for a while at game time, then I assure you that surface temps are currently overestimated in many areas, unless you get a big time Lakes cutter, in which case you likely won't have a big Arctic High hanging out in the NE for very long.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
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I'd be patient on this one, as far as writing it off or jumping on the train. However, the nature of the HP is arctic and the setup is pretty much ideal, CAD wise. I would be surprised if at least western NC didn't get a sig ice/sleet/snow chance out of this. It certainly has potential to trend much colder. I have reservations about the SLP reaching the great lakes like the euro is showing at 168. That feature alone is causing the model physics to erode the cold air damming too quickly. A more traditional miller b SLP track into TN with redevelopment off of the coast ( or something simliar) seems more likely if the HP is aligned as the models currently prog. This might be a candidate to head back home to hickory this weekend if it looks like they will get slammed. We shall see. I'm kind of excited for this one. It's been since the 10-11 winter I could say that.

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Where is Larry Cosgrove when you need him?

:snowing:

I'd be patient on this one, as far as writing it off or jumping on the train. However, the nature of the HP is arctic and the setup is pretty much ideal. I would be surprised if at least western NC didn't get a sig ice/sleet/snow chance out of this. It certainly has potential to trend much colder at the surface. Not necessarily aloft though. I have reservations about the SLP reaching the great lakes like the euro is showing at 168. That feature alone is causing the model physics to erode the cold air damming too quickly. A more traditional miller b SLP track into TN with redevelopment off of the coast ( or something simliar) seems more likely if the HP is aligned as the models currently prog. This might be a candidate to head back home to hickory this weekend if it looks like they will get slammed. We shall see. I'm kind of excited for this one. It's been since the 10-11 winter I could say that.

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Bsudweather

Bsudweather

Posted
Posted

There is one thing I know for sure from experience here in the upstate, just about every sig ice storm I recall here has came from the classic Cad! If that's the setup and precip overruns it 9 out of 10 times we here in the upstate see sig ice storms! Whether that happens is yet to be seen. I look for us not to know exactly what this is gonna do before at least wed. If models trend toward a ice storm wed then folks in the cad areas of nc,sc, and Ga better watch out!

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Shawn

Shawn

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Well for those around the Midlands of SC, the GEFS has went from 0 members showing ice to at least 3 or 4 since 06z showing 0.30 ice.  Still too many details to work out.  Most likely will NOT happen this far South though.

 

12Z euro doesn't have it freezing even at 2M until 240 hrs in KCAE.

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jburns

jburns

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Posted

There is one thing I know for sure from experience here in the upstate, just about every sig ice storm I recall here has came from the classic Cad! If that's the setup and precip overruns it 9 out of 10 times we here in the upstate see sig ice storms! Whether that happens is yet to be seen. I look for us not to know exactly what this is gonna do before at least wed. If models trend toward a ice storm wed then folks in the cad areas of nc,sc, and Ga better watch out!

 

Wed?  Pretty optimistic there. My money is on Sunday.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

What I was saying is it will be "atleast" wed before models will start coming together on what is likely to happen. I don't think this will be a nowcast come sun! We will know by then JMO.

Oh. I thought you said;

 

I look for us not to know exactly what this is gonna do before at least wed.

Wait. You did. :)

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Tyler B

Tyler B

Posted
Posted

Lol at the 18z gfs. Looks horrid with the low going right to the lakes pushing out the high. As was mentioned earlier it seems we aee in that 5 to 6 day range where the gfs almost always looses the storm only to bring it back as we get closer to the event.

 

It still shows an Ice event over the CAD areas…or am I looking at that totally wrong?

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tazaroo

tazaroo

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It still shows an Ice event over the CAD areas…or am I looking at that totally wrong?

Yes it does but not the way it should and out of line with the ggem and euro with a less classical cad look the way the High move out faster and is further North. I think it is just being progressive as usual. Of course that's just my opinion.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

While this is the Huge, Big Cad Storm thread, there was no mention of when said Cad Storm will appear...this is an on going project, lol.  One must stay tuned thru the ups and downs, and the perils of Pauline...the zoftig lady.  My take is the huge, big cad storm will be in Jan. when climo says yes...so no razors except as adornment, please:)  Any prior flirtations with the zmonster are just local appetizers to the regional main course. Tony

 

Excellent point, kind sir!  Nowhere did you claim that this coming weekend would be said storm.  You just said that this is the thread for the big CAD sleetfest storm.  So, you're good to go!  No matter when it comes to fruition.

 

Where is Larry Cosgrove when you need him?

:snowing:

 

Whoa!  A beanskip sighting has occurred!  We know things are looking up winter-weather-wise if we can bring beanskip out of hibernation.  Welcome back!

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Tyler B

Tyler B

Posted
Posted

WXII 12's Lanie Pope in the Winston Salem/Greensboro NC market has added a ICY mix to her 7-Day forecast on Sunday! High of 38 and lows flirting at freezing!

 

So far this is the only local tv meteorologist yet that I have seen or heard mention the wintry possibility! 

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Our man lives in the sunshine state now. This is a guarantee that the foothills will get nailed this season ! ;)

While this is the Huge, Big Cad Storm thread, there was no mention of when said Cad Storm will appear...this is an on going project, lol. One must stay tuned thru the ups and downs, and the perils of Pauline...the zoftig lady. My take is the huge, big cad storm will be in Jan. when climo says yes...so no razors except as adornment, please:) Any prior flirtations with the zmonster are just local appetizers to the regional main course. Tony Excellent point, kind sir! Nowhere did you claim that this coming weekend would be said storm. You just said that this is the thread for the big CAD sleetfest storm. So, you're good to go! No matter when it comes to fruition. Where is Larry Cosgrove when you need him? :snowing: Whoa! A beanskip sighting has occurred! We know things are looking up winter-weather-wise if we can bring beanskip out of hibernation. Welcome back!
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wake4est

wake4est

Posted
Posted

WRAL via Facebook:

"We’ll be watching Sunday closely over the next few days to see how projections evolve. Right now, the pattern forecast for that time frame, involving a damming setup that traps low-level cold air on the east side of the mountains, is one that could produce anything from simply a cold rain to an ice storm, but the details regarding surface temperatures and vertical temperature profiles are hard to have confidence about this far in advance, as ensembles of model output show a pretty sizable spread of values through that time frame, with most (but not all) so far keeping us a little too warm for icing. We’ll have to watch how the pattern evolves as we move through the week and get new observations of the systems moving this way, to have a better feel for whether we’ll be dealing with just rain or a winter weather event."

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

PROMINENT WARM NOSE IN

PROFILES...INDICATING MAINLY A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN PTYPE ISSUE

FOR SUNDAY.

This pretty much guarantees Oconee and a small portion of NC don't have to worry about any frzn precip! As that dam nose always sets up camp here. Problem for me is we will be coming home from Charlotte Sunday after the account championship game. May have to watch it close.

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