tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 You are a wizard. Nah, Just a weather nut. lol. I have seen this song and dance many times before though and without strong confluence or blocking, even weak lows can lift north. It doesn't necessarily mean there won't be ice in the CAD areas though and in central and west TN, northern MS, and western KY. It will be interesting to see if the cold at the lower levels is being mishandled by the models. I see very smart people (mets) insisting this is the case, so maybe the models will reverse trends, but to this point, the only trends are to minimize impacts for the eastern TN valley and points south. Even the CAD areas have trended away somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro at 12z shows a great CAD signature for you guys east of the Apps late weekend into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro at 12z shows a great CAD signature for you guys east of the Apps late weekend into early next week. How far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 HKY gets slammed this run with nearly 1" QPF of ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 How far east? Is Raleigh a typical CAD area? There's your answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ok, but I got the razor ready! Haha! While this is the Huge, Big Cad Storm thread, there was no mention of when said Cad Storm will appear...this is an on going project, lol. One must stay tuned thru the ups and downs, and the perils of Pauline...the zoftig lady. My take is the huge, big cad storm will be in Jan. when climo says yes...so no razors except as adornment, please:) Any prior flirtations with the zmonster are just local appetizers to the regional main course. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 With the Euro, Canadian, and for the most part GFS showing a significant winter storm for the CAD areas, that's a tough camp to bet against Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2013/post-402-0-06721800-1386010343.png Nice Eye Candy from the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Is Raleigh a typical CAD area? There's your answer. Yes, but verbatim Euro has RDU 33-34F. GSO and INT are crippling ice storm. Brick - we would rather be a cold rain than several days without power right before Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Is Raleigh a typical CAD area? There's your answer. I think Raleigh is usually right on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Brad Panovich from WCNC saids improbable and laughable, that's encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yes, but verbatim Euro has RDU 33-34F. GSO and INT are crippling ice storm. Brick - we would rather be a cold rain than several days without power right before Xmas. I should've phrased that better. It's a CAD area but it's 33 and rain with borderline events. This, of course, could trend colder as they often do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yes, but verbatim Euro has RDU 33-34F. GSO and INT are crippling ice storm. Brick - we would rather be a cold rain than several days without power right before Xmas. I don't want to lose power, but it would be nice to get SOME wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yes, but verbatim Euro has RDU 33-34F. GSO and INT are crippling ice storm. Brick - we would rather be a cold rain than several days without power right before Xmas. With the strength of that high, if precip was falling, I'd be very surprised if RDU isn't getting ice as well. It may not be a "typical" CAD area, but we usually do pretty well here in strong CADs, and this is that.Edit: I have no idea how much precip falls at RDU while the damming high is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Here you go Brick. All you have to do is tune into Allan and he gives you the breakdown each model run on twitter. https://twitter.com/RaleighWx 12z Euro per Allan:12z Euro also showing strong wedge east of mountains and ice problems mostly north and west of CLT to RDU and up into VA Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2013/post-402-0-06721800-1386010343.png Nice Eye Candy from the Euro You've got to love clown maps! In all seriousness, did the Euro show any front-end snow before the crippling ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I still think that the models don't have a clue about the density of the cold air that's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 You've got to love clown maps! In all seriousness, did the Euro show any front-end snow before the crippling ice storm? Unfortunately I don't have access. Have to go pull info from other threads sources if Burger or WOW aren't here to give the (Euro)nitty gritty details. An hour of snow or just IP getting laid down before the transition to frzng rn along with ongoing caa will really do a number increasing the severity of an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Unfortunately I don't have access. Have to go pull info from other threads sources if Burger or WOW aren't here to give the (Euro)nitty gritty details. An hour of snow or just IP getting laid down before the transition to frzng rn along with ongoing caa will really do a number increasing the severity of an ice storm. Yep, it gives the ZR something cold to stick on, so it can stick on the roads and everything. It really made the December 2002 especially severe here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Brad Panovich from WCNC saids improbable and laughable, that's encouraging Well, I can't say I disagree with him. There hasn't been anything to say that CLT is in line for an ice storm as of right now; modeling anyway. And to be fair, it is 6 days away so that is a reach. However I think it's clear there's going to be a winter storm somewhere on the east coast; probably Penn, and VA north. So for him to entirely dismiss, that seemed odd. But I think he was addressing CLT's outlook as of today, which I agree with him on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 the models will have a better idea on the cold ,bye mid week ,better get your pop corn ready ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 the models will have a better idea on the cold ,bye mid week ,better get your pop corn ready !Why do you guys always think the models are underestimating the cold? Maybe they are overestimating the cold. It's just way too early to say crap like that or wishcast crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Why do you guys always think the models are underestimating the cold? Maybe they are overestimating the cold. It's just way too early to say crap like that or wishcast crap. If people in the CAD areas (myself included) enjoy having lights and heat then we better hope that the models are over estimating the cold. Because if the Euro and CMC are right then it would be crippling up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Why do you guys always think the models are underestimating the cold? Maybe they are overestimating the cold. It's just way too early to say crap like that or wishcast crap. Because models typically under forecast cold in CAD situations. I've seen it happen at least half a dozen times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Because models typically under forecast cold in CAD situations. I've seen it happen at least half a dozen times. They also tend to underestimate the amount of time it will take for the cold air to be scoured out. Around here it is usually four to six hours past the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The last big ice storm we had here in Dec 02 was supposed to be too warm for ice. I woke up the next morning and didn't have power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Because models typically under forecast cold in CAD situations. I've seen it happen at least half a dozen times. Bingo. Also it should be noted folks are getting hyped up due to the strong CAD signal being shown. Granted it has plenty of time to totally flip or fall apart but when you see that big U shape showing up on the models it's very concerning given how they typically underperform with regards to how strong the wedge is and how cold it actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Why do you guys always think the models are underestimating the cold? Maybe they are overestimating the cold. It's just way too early to say crap like that or wishcast crap. The models dont have a perfect topographical layout. The models see the mountains as small boxes and not as humans see it. They have gotten better with resolution, but it's far from what it should be. You will see the NAM and higher resolution models pick up on the CAD better when we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GSP disco... THE MAIN MODEL PATTERN DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP OVER THEWEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS INJECTING ENERGY INTO THE WRNTROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES...WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVEINTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY...AND DAMPENS THE WRN WAVE DOWNSTREAMTOWARD THE APPALACHIANS INTO MON. THE ECMWF AND CMC SOLUTIONS ARETHE COLDEST SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER SEPENETRATION OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ANY EVENT SRLY UPGLIDE OVER THESTALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD RETURN QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. INADDITION...SPRAWLING 1040 MB HIGH PRES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ERNPA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING. WILL FEATURESUNDAY TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH FREEZING TEMPS QUITEPOSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS N THROUGHMOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE A PROMINENT WARM NOSE INPROFILES...INDICATING MAINLY A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN PTYPE ISSUEFOR SUNDAY.CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER TIMING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THEGENERAL APPROACH WILL BE FOR THE CAD TO SLOWLY ERODE WITH A TRAILINGFROPA EVENTUALLY SCOURING THINGS OUT FROM THE WEST. WILL FEATURECONTINUED LOW END CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The last big ice storm we had here in Dec 02 was supposed to be too warm for ice. I woke up the next morning and didn't have power. December '05 didn't reach you guys?? I guess Jan '10 didn't much make it off the Southern NC mountains as well. Dec '02 we had sleet/snow mixing… I think I'd rather have nothing than ICE. Edit to add… Interesting GSP disco, Saluda might still be in for it. We always seem to remain cold until the bitter end with CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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