Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sorry NCCatawba, must have posted at same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Guys if I were NWS and to an extent the Euro agrees on what the Nam and GFS are showing, even tho its starting to be at the point where the Euro's range is not as useful, I would definitely put out an Ice Storm Warning and put the emphasis on what kind of impact this would have to the area as a Winter Storm Warning is used more for snow and sleet purposes and in my mind wouldnt grab the communities attention as much. That amount of qpf, what it would do to the area if it switched over to freezing rain rather quickly would be a severe event to say the least. It's a tough call. I'm not convinced it switches over too fast. GFS would imply a little longer sleet/snow scenario. We definitely are getting freezing rain and lots of it... but I think we see hours of sleet if not a little snow too. GFS colder than the NAM but not has extreme with QPF totals.. Probably more realistic. Actually shows the first 6-9 hours of the storm being the most severe then freezing drizzle.. Still plenty to cause problems though. My temp sitting at 44 degrees right now and dewpoint still well in the 30's.. Need to see those dewpoints start nosing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Appears to be two different thoughts right now. The NAM wants to bring the wedge in right down the eastern blue ridge and hold it there for a good while, the GFS wants to bring in a more wider wedge mostly confined to central NC. Don't know which is right. EURO also likes trapping the colder air along the escarpment. Probably go with the NAM. GFS too quick to let go maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Nearly 3 hours since the last post, ominous silence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Everyone is watching and waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landof2rivers Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Not sure if this belongs here or obs, but I've noticed the temp has risen since this morning. I thought the temps were to decrease as the day went on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Not sure if this belongs here or obs, but I've noticed the temp has risen since this morning. I thought the temps were to decrease as the day went on. After the cold front passed, there wouldn't be any big drop during the day. After all, there's little to no precip, so the sun will fight back some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 18z NAM appears to be similar so far in regards to precip. Roanoke and southern VA get clobbered. NC does good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 18z NAM appears to be similar so far in regards to precip. Roanoke and southern VA get clobbered. NC does good too. This 18Z run of the NAM is going to be epic with qpf totals and the 2M line down into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This 18Z run of the NAM is going to be epic with qpf totals and the 2M line down into NC. Assuming the 2M temps on WxBell are correct, we are still below freezing at hour 27.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Assuming the 2M temps on WxBell are correct, we are still below freezing at hour 27.. If i'm not mistaken on instantweathermaps, hour 32 I believe still had us below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If i'm not mistaken on instantweathermaps, hour 32 I believe still had us below freezing. Hour 36 even has temps at freezing down into NW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Thru 39 hours, qpf is between 1-1.25 with a stripe of 1.5-1.75 just off to our west. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Congrats to those north of me. Very weak for Hickory. Looks like the initial thump is a waste as its not cold enough. Longer duration of cold but precip is patchy and weak as it progresses but enough for glazing along the blue ridge, northern foothills, va border counties, northern Piedmont, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Congrats to those north of me. Very weak for Hickory. Haha, I'm not sure I want to be congratulated if this ends up panning out. I'd really, really like to keep my power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Congrats to those north of me. Very weak for Hickory. Looks like the initial thump is a waste as its not cold enough. Longer duration of cold but precip is not even falling. Crawdud....Yesterday you were complaining about the lack of precip......now since the models have up the totals, which I knew they would, you are complaining about the temps not being cold enough. Interesting..... That's ok you can still drive to Mt. Airy and report back to us...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 439 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 TNZ013>018-035>047-VAZ001-005-006-008-080900- CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN- ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE- COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE- WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-LEE-SCOTT- RUSSELL-WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE... ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG... CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN... NEWPORT...COSBY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY... ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...JONESVILLE...GATE CITY... LEBANON...ABINGDON 439 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 ...PATCHY FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INT0 THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SOUTHWEST VA...THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...THE NORTHEAST TN MOUNTAINS AND COLDER SHADED VALLEYS. FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED. THIS MAY CAUSE PATCHY BLACK ICE AND SLICK CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING...ENDING THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIVE WITH CAUTION.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 After evaluating the 18Z GFS and NAM its looking like a solid 1.25-1.50 qpf event is about to unfold starting in the next 12-15 hours. Should be a fun one tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 After evaluating the 18Z GFS and NAM its looking like a solid 1.25-1.50 qpf event is about to unfold starting in the next 12-15 hours. Should be a fun one tomorrow. Good luck... one way or the other. Hopefully you enjoy some winter weather without disruptive consequences, Looks fairly benign here. If it is not going to snow, I am fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Models just can't handle it. I think the best mets and forecasters will be right with this one. Ice Storm Warnings in North Carolina are way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Models just can't handle it. I think the best mets and forecasters will be right with this one. Ice Storm Warnings in North Carolina are way overdone. That's nice of you to imply that the NWS doesn't have any good meteorologists and that they issued Ice Storm Warnings for nothing. Why don't you wait until the event has passed before casting stones? RAH is usually a pretty conservative WFO, so I pay attention when they issue Ice Storm Warnings well ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NWS it's more of a liability and safety concern for the general public. Brad, Ray, Robert, DT, and more are hard to bet against. That's nice of you to imply that the NWS doesn't have any good meteorologists and that they issued Ice Storm Warnings for nothing. Why don't you wait until the event has passed before casting stones? RAH is usually a pretty conservative WFO, so I pay attention when they issue Ice Storm Warnings well ahead of time. This kind of brings me back to my statement made earlier in the day though. In no way am I bashing any meteorologists because I would be the last person to bash someone's career when they have worked hard for what they do. However I just cannot put into perspective why in the world they have winter storm warnings up when they are forecasting a large part of the afd to receive upwards of 1/2'' of ice. It just seems to defeat the purpose of even having the ice storm warning option if there not going to even utilize it and instead reserve it when the winter storm warning is supposed to meet a certain criteria and I don't believe 1" of sleet and/or snow will make the criteria. I guess im griping over something ridiculous but it kind of made me scratch my head a little when in fact i'm sure they'll go ahead and issue a ice storm warning midway thru the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NWS it's more of a liability and safety concern for the general public. Brad, Ray, Robert, DT, and more are hard to bet against. Once again, If you don't know what you are talking about, then it is best that you don't talk. The NWS has some very knowledgeable mets and some of them post in our forum. I don't think they would appreciate your attitude in regards to their forecasts. Sit back, shut up, and learn from them....please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Models just can't handle it. I think the best mets and forecasters will be right with this one. Ice Storm Warnings in North Carolina are way overdone. This sounds like pure weenie-ism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This kind of brings me back to my statement made earlier in the day though. In no way am I bashing any meteorologists because I would be the last person to bash someone's career when they have worked hard for what they do. However I just cannot put into perspective why in the world they have winter storm warnings up when they are forecasting a large part of the afd to receive upwards of 1/2'' of ice. It just seems to defeat the purpose of even having the ice storm warning option if there not going to even utilize it and instead reserve it when the winter storm warning is supposed to meet a certain criteria and I don't believe 1" of sleet and/or snow will make the criteria. I guess im griping over something ridiculous but it kind of made me scratch my head a little when in fact i'm sure they'll go ahead and issue a ice storm warning midway thru the event. Actually if you read the criteria for a "winter storm warning", it does include the 1/4 inch or greater of freezing rain. Winter storm warnings are typically issued if you are expected to have a mixed bag in which one of the required criteria groups is forecasted to be met. In this case it would be the freezing rain that would exceed warning criteria. Although you will probably see a little of everything up there. Hope that helps to clear it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Actually if you read the criteria for a "winter storm warning", it does include the 1/4 inch or greater of freezing rain. Winter storm warnings are typically issued if you are expected to have a mixed bag in which one of the required criteria groups is forecasted to be met. In this case it would be the freezing rain that would exceed warning criteria. Although you will probably see a little of everything up there. Hope that helps to clear it up. RAH did mention that the criteria would be met in scattered instances. **So this is like a chance of scatter frost; not a widespread occurrence. Probably open areas facing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Just talked to Robert he says not much to it.Just tied to CataWilkesbro.... He's concerned for north Wilkesboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Just talked to Robert he says not much to it. RPM came back down to reality. Widespread agreement with most of the best except the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 RPM came back down to reality. Widespread agreement with most of the best except the NWS. Yep another dud storm for us but either way we will make good money for nothing. All we have to have is a weather advisory and we have to send out salt trucks. Good start for us two duds and we make money. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Actually if you read the criteria for a "winter storm warning", it does include the 1/4 inch or greater of freezing rain. Winter storm warnings are typically issued if you are expected to have a mixed bag in which one of the required criteria groups is forecasted to be met. In this case it would be the freezing rain that would exceed warning criteria. Although you will probably see a little of everything up there. Hope that helps to clear it up.Appreciate it like I said in no way was I trying to be a smart a** like the other gentleman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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